Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
727 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A subtropical high off the Atlantic coast will maintain shower and
thunderstorm chances and above normal high temperatures through the
next week. A stationary boundary will sag into the area by the
middle of the week, keeping afternoon rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday: An upper vorticity maximum moving east over
northern GA this evening is spreading better convective coverage
into the upper Savannah River area. Coverage is also increasing
slightly along pre-existing outflows over the lower piedmont, while
coverage along I-40 and northward slowly develops eastward. Nothing
has been very robust this evening given the warm profiles, but DCAPE
values running 1000 to 1300 J/kg will keep a microburst threat going
for any areas affected by the late day convection. All cells have
enough eastward movement to confine any hydro problems to training
areas. There is some indication that the arriving, but weakening,
upper support will keep a measure of isolated shower/tstm activity
in place overnight, but developing CINH in profiles should allow the
convection to wane in the early morning hours. So, a diurnal trend
is featured in PoPs - but with slower diminution than typically.

Otherwise, an upper trough remains in place to the west of the
mountain chain. Weak southwest flow aloft over the Southeast will
continue to bring Gulf moisture in aloft, while southerly flow
around surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will do the
same at low levels, though with continued lee troughiness in place
across the area. Overnight fog is likely in the mountain river
valleys and may develop east of the mountains near lakes, streams,
and where heavy rain falls this evening.

The best convective potential on Monday will be both across our
southeast zones and in the mountains associated with the sharper
trough. Most of the operational guidance points to some sort of
convective complex developing across the Mid-MS Valley tomorrow and
working across KY/TN. This is progged to be right on our doorstep at
the end of the near-term period but falling apart as it approaches
the mountains, though forecast trends will have to be monitored.
Very little change to temperatures is expected, though it's possible
with the "front" sliding southeast tomorrow we could see a degree or
so cooler. If the front is strong enough for that it would likely
swing winds around to the NW across the area, which in this weak
advective regime would bring a downslope component and negate any
cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...if there is a day where confidence is not so
great, I think it would still be Tuesday. The model guidance appears
to still be flip-flopping a bit with the extent of precip on that
day. Some of the guidance last night suggested driving the front far
enough south Monday night such that we might have very little
development Tuesday afternoon. Then, the 12Z guidance once again
keeps the front in closer proximity. So, the forecast will trend
back the other way with slightly better coverage of precip Tuesday
afternoon. In the end, we are left with what amounts to a climo PoP
over the area, which is to say a chance over the mountains and
foothills, and a slight chance over the Piedmont. Fcst soundings for
Tuesday afternoon support this idea, with an uncapped boundary layer
allowing for weak to moderate instability. In the absence of
anything to discourage the convection over the mtns, it will
probably happen on some of the ridgetops. Expect it to weaken and
die by late evening. By Wednesday, the weak upper trof should have
moved off the east coast, and the upper ridge/anticyclone centered
over the Srn Plains should nose eastward. The nrn stream extent of
this ridge should support weak high pressure that moves off the
northeast/New England Coast on Wednesday that should bring a weak
easterly low level flow by Wednesday night. The guidance suggests
scattered diurnal convection once again, which is reasonable, but
with the light easterly flow some of this might linger well into
early Thursday morning. The trend on the temps is down a bit,
meaning there is less of a chance of needing a heat advisory, but it
will still feel seasonally uncomfortable both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...the medium range begins Thursday morning with
an upper ridge approaching the East Coast as an upper trough slides
offshore over the Atlantic. This places the CWA briefly in
northwesterly flow before transitioning to a more southeasterly flow
regime as a stationary surface boundary over the southern
Appalachians breaks down. Even with a modest upper ridge over the
eastern third of the CONUS, the warm, moist low-level flow off the
Atlantic will provide diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances close
to normal through the end of next work week. Saturday and Sunday
mark something of a transition in the upper pattern as a trough
attempts to form over the northeast CONUS, though guidance does
differ somewhat on the depth and timing of the trough. Despite the
uncertainty, it does seem likely that a frontal boundary of some
kind will approach the area early next week. Overall, recent
guidance has trended somewhat wetter than previously thought for the
extended period...which could be good news considering the severe
drought impacting parts of the forecast area. Maximum temperatures
will remain a bit above average through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT: Showers continue to develop and dissipate quickly in the
vicinity this evening as profiles aloft remain quite warm. However,
outflows from nearby convection along with approaching weak upper
support from a mid level vorticity maximum should permit coverage to
increase a bit through mid evening. Will feature VCSH the rest of
the evening hours but maintain a narrow window of TEMPO TSRA for any
nearby development. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions away from any
thunderstorms through the period with mainly SW winds less than 10
kt throughout. Thunder chances will ramp up again after 20Z
Monday.

Elsewhere: Approaching weak upper support along with convective
redevelopment on nearby outflows will require a VCTS mention at all
mountain/foothill TAF sites this evening. Will TEMPO TSRA at KHKY
where activity is passing close by just north of I-40 and also at
KAND where coverage arriving from northern GA will be best. Patchy
fog will be possible throughout but with the best chances for IFR or
less restrictions in the mountain river valleys. Moisture in
profiles could permit better coverage on Monday, with VCTS by midday
and PROB30 TSRA for the peak afternoon heating hours throughout.
Winds will be mainly S to SW, except W to NW this evening near
outflows across the foothills, and mainly NW away from outflows at
KAVL.

Outlook: Expect typical summertime convection each afternoon this
week, with perhaps some enhanced coverage Tuesday into Wednesday
with a weak front in the vicinity. Restrictions can be expected with
any afternoon/evening convection as well as each morning in the
mountain valleys where fog and low stratus are possible.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  83%     Med   65%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  95%     High  95%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-012100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
458 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
832 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ004-010-010100-
FRANKLIN GA-HART GA-ELBERT GA-GREATER OCONEE SC-ANDERSON SC-
832 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT HART...
ELBERT...EASTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 831 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CARNESVILLE TO 9 MILES EAST OF DANIELSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELBERTON...HARTWELL...PENDLETON...ROYSTON...REED
CREEK...LAVONIA...GUMLOG... BOWMAN...CANON AND FRANKLIN SPRINGS.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...TRY
TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY
FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN
INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED
ELECTRONIC DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORMS APPROACH.

LAKE HARTWELL AND LAKE RUSSELL ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 8294 3404 8295 3405 8299 3410 8304
      3411 8303 3415 8306 3417 8310 3423 8308
      3427 8311 3425 8316 3445 8319 3462 8286
      3461 8286 3462 8285 3463 8285 3466 8278
      3422 8273 3420 8274 3404 8271 3401 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 248DEG 13KT 3441 8311 3407 8307

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
837 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ049-053-505-010100-
BUNCOMBE NC-YANCEY NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
837 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY...NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 836 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...OR 4
MILES NORTH OF BLACK MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... BLACK MOUNTAIN...SWANNANOA...OLD
FORT...B.R. PARKWAY-CRAGGY TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND...MOUNT MITCHELL
STATE PARK...B.R. PARKWAY-EAST ASHEVILLE TO CRAGGY
GARDENS...MONTREAT...WOODLAWN...PLEASANT GARDENS AND BUSICK.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 8201 3571 8203 3562 8206 3560 8203
      3554 8208 3553 8208 3552 8216 3553 8217
      3553 8219 3560 8243 3577 8238 3584 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 283DEG 13KT 3567 8232

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
851 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NCZ037-010115-
DAVIE NC-
851 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT DAVIE
COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 851 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING NEAR MOCKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOCKSVILLE...BERMUDA RUN...SHEFFIELD...FARMINGTON...FORK CHURCH AND
ADVANCE.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8040 3588 8042 3587 8039 3585 8039
      3585 8042 3584 8043 3582 8061 3584 8062
      3585 8065 3600 8069 3605 8053 3604 8049
      3606 8046 3603 8044 3601 8042 3599 8042
      3596 8038 3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 256DEG 24KT 3593 8058

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
855 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

SCZ007-008-013-010130-
SPARTANBURG SC-CHEROKEE SC-UNION SC-
855 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN UNION...EAST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 855 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPARTANBURG...OR NEAR CROFT
STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPARTANBURG...PACOLET...ROEBUCK...JONESVILLE...PACOLET MILLS...CEDAR
SPRINGS...CROFT STATE PARK...PAULINE AND THICKETTY.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8194 3494 8198 3504 8162 3477 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 259DEG 16KT 3487 8188

07