Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
819 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will stall out over the area tonight, bringing increased
chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front dissipates
over the region tomorrow with subtropical high pressure building back in
for the rest of the week and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 815 PM, convection will be most likely across the northwest NC
Piedmont over the next 1-2 hours, as a small cluster of convection
continues to drop SE out of the far northern foothills. Elsewhere,
convection is expected to be isolated at best over the next few
hours.

The upper pattern will gradually amplify thru tonight with the large
and sprawling upper anticyclone over the Srn Plains and an upper
trof along the east coast providing a NNW flow. Not too much in the
way of mid/upper support in the big picture, and the models do not
show any upstream development that might send out an outflow
boundary. Thus, expect the overnight hours and Wednesday to be quiet
relative to the past few days. Fcst soundings show some instability
atop a strong cap early in the day, but as temps rise and the
boundary layer deepens and moisture mixes out, most of that buoyancy
is eliminated.  That does not suggest much of a chance for precip
outside the mtns, so precip prob was kept at or below climo. Temps
should be very similar to today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tue: Expansive upper ridge will remain over the
southern Plains for the latter half of the work week, retrograding
bit as waves progress eastward in the northern stream. The Bermuda
High will remain the dominant feature over the Southeast coast,
though it is suppressed slightly as a trough settles over the
Northeast Friday. Low level winds will remain southerly, but
veer to SW over the course of the forecast period. Overall the
pattern looks routine for July, with PoPs forced by the diurnal
instability cycle, and t-storms remaining disorganized/pulsey on
account of small shear parameters. Temps will warm a bit further
Friday with an uptick in thicknesses, with maxes reaching category
or two above normal. Dewpoints appear likely to mix out enough to
keep heat indices around 100 at most during this period.

Latest NAM does not seem to be generating any MCS activity over
the Midwest Wed or Thu nights as it has on some previous runs,
but it is still not out of the question that such a storm could
develop and be carried into the upper TN Valley or southern
Appalachians. We'll keep an eye on the situation upstream.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...the medium range fcst picks up at 00Z on
Saturday with broad upper ridging over the central CONUS and a
low amplitude upper trof digging down over northern New England.
Over the weekend, as the polar jet becomes more active and moves
farther south, the ridge gradually gets suppressed and heights
begin to fall. The period ends early next week with relatively
zonal flow over the SE region and the ridge persisting over the
Western CONUS. At the sfc, we still expect to be under the
prevailing Bermuda High for the whole period. This should keep
light, southerly flow over the region each day with near climo
summertime POPs and very warm temps. Heat indices climb to
advisory levels over much of the lower elevations for Saturday and
Sunday and get very close on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the
period. The only convective mention this evening will be at KHKY,
where a cell currently about 20 miles north of the terminal may be
in the vicinity by around 01Z. Cannot completely rule out a shower
or storm in the vicinity of KCLT by late evening or so, but chances
are very low. Winds are generally expected to remain light NW, or
become light/vrbl this evening, then become light NE by tomorrow
afternoon. Chances for convection appear to be low again on Wed, so
no mention of convection tomorrow afternoon.

At KAVL, kind of a tricky forecast in terms of the fog/stratus
potential tonight, esp in light of the fact the there was none last
night. Very light precip fell at the terminal today and dewpoints
were several degrees lower than they've been in a few days. However,
the light up-valley flow and occl mid-level clouds that prevented
fog/stratus development last night is not expected to be as
prevalent tonight, and available guidance is quite pessimistic.
Opted to feature prevailing MVFR visby with a tempo for 2SM/FEW003
after 08Z. Otherwise, widely scattered convection should develop
across the area again tomorrow afternoon, supporting a PROB30 for
TSRA after 18Z.

Outlook: Expect fairly typical midsummer weather with afternoon
showers and thunderstorms during the middle and latter part of the
week. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each day in the
mountain valleys and also in locations that received heavy rainfall
in the preceding afternoon/evening.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   79%     High  93%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  94%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
200815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVERS AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
200815-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVERS AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
..SUNDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR
POSSIBLY SEEING HEAT INDEX VALUES 105 DEGREES OR GREATER.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
836 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW OLD FORT          35.65N 82.25W
07/19/2016                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON MILL CREEK ROAD NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION WITH GRAPHITE ROAD. TIME DETERMINED FROM
            RADAR DATA.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
858 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ036-057-200130-
ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC-
858 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN ROWAN AND EAST CENTRAL IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
EDT...

AT 858 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 7 MILES EAST OF STATESVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CLEVELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SALISBURY...STATESVILLE...CLEVELAND...PIEDMONT RESEARCH STATION...
WOODLEAF...COOL SPRINGS AND MOUNT ULLA.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 8049 3559 8077 3587 8090 3592 8071
      3591 8070 3585 8071 3585 8070 3586 8069
      3585 8067 3584 8067 3584 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 329DEG 26KT 3580 8075

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ057-200200-
ROWAN NC-
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 934 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 10 MILES WEST OF SALISBURY...OR 4 MILES SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KANNAPOLIS...CHINA GROVE...LANDIS...ENOCHVILLE...CLEVELAND...PIEDMONT
RESEARCH STATION...WOODLEAF AND MOUNT ULLA.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8057 3551 8073 3568 8077 3579 8073
      3577 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 337DEG 14KT 3567 8066

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E MOUNT ULLA          35.65N 80.64W
07/19/2016                   ROWAN              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN ACROSS MOORESVILLE RD.
            MOORSEVILLE RD HAS BEEN CLOSED.

0947 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE MOUNT ULLA        35.64N 80.66W
07/19/2016                   ROWAN              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS POWERLINES AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            MOORESVILLE RD AND ROUND TUIT LN.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE MOUNT ULLA        35.64N 80.66W
07/19/2016                   ROWAN              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES KNOCKED DOWN BLOCKING FANNIE SLOAN RD NEAR
            MOORESVILLE RD...ROAD CLOSED. POWER POLE SNAPPED IN HALF.

0948 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NW CHINA GROVE        35.64N 80.64W
07/19/2016                   ROWAN              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN BLOCKING FANNIE SLOAN RD NEAR MILLBRIDGE
            RD. ROADWAY IS CLOSED.

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ037-200230-
DAVIE NC-
1017 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DAVIE COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM EDT...

AT 1017 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES EAST OF MOCKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOCKSVILLE...FORK CHURCH AND ADVANCE.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8040 3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8039
      3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046 3584 8047
      3584 8048 3581 8047 3579 8048 3578 8051
      3595 8055 3599 8042 3596 8038 3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 342DEG 20KT 3591 8047

NED