Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
603 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will approach the southern Appalachians
tomorrow and stall over the area, enhancing rain and thunderstorm
chances this weekend and through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 550 PM: Cu field east of the mtns has not shown any increasing
trend. The a small area across the Lakelands remains a few congestus
and showers. Convection sliding in the region from TN is trending a
little weaker over the high terrain, but should stay going during
the daylight hours. I will adjust PoPs according to the recent
trends. Later this evening, convection should continue to arrive
from the west. However, a nicely formed boundary/sea breeze should
arrive from the east. CAMs do not show occurring east of the mtns,
but we will be watching. Overall, ending a hot day across the
western Carolinas and NE GA. Highs ranged from 100 at Clemson, 97 at
CLT, and 70 at Mt. Mitchell.

At 200 PM Thursday: Low amplitude upper troughing will amplify from
the great lakes to the Gulf of Mexico today and tonight. A weak
shortwave is expected to move through the base of the trough on
Friday, while a surface trough persists along the eastern seaboard,
and a weakening cold from approaches from the northwest.

Instability will be sufficient to support convection across our area
this afternoon and evening, however weak shear will be not be
conducive for organized convection. Instability is expected to be
similar on Friday, and deeper moisture will be available for better
precipitation production. With less steering flow on Friday, heavier
rainfall may accompany slower moving storms. Temperatures will run
above normal both tonight and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday, a series of vorticity maxima aloft will
move into and across the region Friday night through Sunday while
rounding a broad trough over the area. The first fairly prominent
shortwave should move into the southern appalachians Friday night
and possibly lead to decent scattered coverage of convection across
the region through the nighttime hours into Saturday morning.
Additional upper waves will arrive Saturday into Sat night, likely
augmented by improving upper jetlet divergence. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure centered over the midwest this weekend will slowly
push a cold front into the region from the northwest. Profiles ahead
of this frontal zone should gradually moisten through Saturday night
given a fairly persistent SW fetch in the 850 mb flow. The surface
boundary may stall across the area through Saturday with possible
surface wave development along the front Saturday night that could
slow or halt clearing/drying on Sunday. Moderate instability is
expected during the peak heating period Saturday afternoon but mid
level flow will increase only marginally with the upper waves. This
should keep the severe weather threat marginal despite the upper
forcing in the Friday night through Saturday night periods. Heavy
rain from training cells will be possible, but dry antecedent
conditions will keep the hydro threat minimal.

The 500 mb trough will slip east of the forecast area on Sunday and
upper heights will gradually rise from the west through the latter
half of the day. Mid level drying is also expected behind the wave
through Sunday, but with some model uncertainty. The surface front
could hang up over the southeast half to keep PoPs going through
late day. Expect temps above climo throughout, especially at night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...the extended period begins 00Z Monday with
a large upper ridge beginning to amplify over the central CONUS.
Monday will feature a generally drying influence from this high
before a trough deepens over the east coast on Tuesday. Large-scale
cyclonic flow, upper divergence, and a trail of shortwaves poised to
propagate along the periphery of the upper ridge into the mid-
Atlantic will favor a return to a more typical summertime convective
pattern of afternoon shower and thunderstorm development though next
Wednesday. Though guidance disagrees on when the upper ridge over
the central plains will break down, it appears that some eventual
flattening of the ridge will occur towards the end of next week, and
its warming and drying influence may be allowed to spread eastward
into our CWA. Both min and max temps will be near normal through the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR, although model time heights hint at some low clouds
around dawn, and some MVFR vsbyss will be present to the northwest
around the same time. Convective chances are high enough this
afternoon to warrant a mention of thunderstorms. Winds will favor
the SW, veering NW Friday morning.

Elsewhere: Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
in NC, and perhaps briefly at SC sites this afternoon. IFR to LIFR
cig and vsby restrictions are probable at KAVL late tonight, and model
guidance suggest daybreak vsby restrictions at KHKY and KAND as
well. Thunder chances ramp up again on Friday morning in NC. Winds
will favor the SW this afternoon, veering NW this evening in NC, and
NW at KGSP/KGMU Friday morning.

Outlook: Fairly typical midsummer weather with PM showers and
thunderstorms expected to continue. A frontal boundary pushing in
this weekend will enhance the daily coverage thereof. Each day,
AM fog and low stratus will be possible in the mountain river
valleys and also in locations that receive heavy rainfall in the
preceding PM.

Confidence Table...

            22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z        16-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Low   55%     Low   55%     Low   30%     Low   56%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-151915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
311 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THAN OVER
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

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