Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
747 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface boundary will persist across the forecast area tonight
and dissipate overnight. Otherwise, the Bermuda high will keep warm and
moist southerly flow over the region through the week. A weak cold front
will approach the Carolinas late in the week and likely stall out over
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Monday:  As convection exits the region to the
east, the atm is left fairly worked over.  That said, regions back
to the west where either ample recovery has occurred, OR the atm was
left untouched, are now seeing sct convection with a bit more
organization working northward along the I85 corridor in NE GA.
Given loss of heating over the next few hours, am skeptical as to
how long said convection will survive.  One caveat is the old
outflow boundary from earlier Upstate convection that is currently
laid across the Lakelands and Upper Savanah River valley.  Any
convergence along that boundary could provide enough lift for
sustained activity into the late evening given ample elevated cape.
Thus, did increase pops a tad over these zones, while allowing them
to fall off respectively across the east.  Otherwise, temp/dewpoint
trends were also adjusted to favor recent obs which indicate areas
of rain cooled air adjacent to earlier shra/tsra.  No other
significant changes were needed/made at this time.

Previous Discussion: A weak warm front will extend from the northern
Plains, across the mid-Mississippi Valley, and out into the Atlantic
via the Carolinas. As a broad 500mb low begins to shift northward
out of the Deep South, the front is expected to follow, itself very
slowly retreating northward thru Tue morning, weakening further
as low level winds veer in response do the evolving upper pattern.

Forcing from either the "front" or shortwave is rather subtle, as
one might expect this time of year. The initiation of diurnally
driven activity indeed is expected over the NC Mtns, but nearly
all the WRF-based guidance members develop clusters of convection
in a swath acrs the area near midday, progressing the activity
NE into evening. PoPs have been revised to more closely follow
their trends. 0-6km shear is progged to be no better than 20-25
kt, enough to permit loosely organized multicells. PWAT values
near 2 inches and linear hodographs suggest they will threaten
to produce areas of intense rainfall possibly with some training
of cells. DCAPE values are limited by the high moisture content,
but a damaging wind gust or two would not be out of the question
if a cold pool were able to develop. SPC has highlighted the area
in a marginal risk on Day 1 outlook; we are carrying appropriate
wording in the HWO for today.

Despite the expectation of more cloud cover, the generally southerly
flow should allow max temps to reach if not exceed Sunday's values.
Though the boundary will have retreated enough to take the better
lift off to our north, if not totally dissipated, the presence of
the shortwave and some elevated CAPE implies a slower than typical
decline in PoPs. Mins will be a little above normal tonight. Patchy
fog is expected to return to parts of WNC, particularly where
heavy rain falls this aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday: The mid level pattern will remain similar
Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a relative lull in
diurnal storms expected. Diurnal storm activity should increase
again especially in the mountains on Thursday as a weak trof
develops across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures are expected to
be a few degrees above climate normals each period.
!--not sent--!

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Monday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on Friday
with a broad upper trof digging down across the Great Lakes and upper
ridging spread across the western CONUS. As we move into the weekend,
the trof axis slowly passes to our north as the upper ridge very
gradually spreads farther east. At the sfc, a weak cold front is expected
to move across the fcst area on Friday, and stall out just to our southeast
over the weekend. The boundary gradually washes out by early next week,
with some degree of drying in the low and mid levels. As for the sensible
fcst, no significant changes were needed with diurnal POPs each day and
temperatures remaining a category or so above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR through the vast majority of the taf cycle with the
exception of possible morning fog, IF skies sct enough to allow for
even weak radiational cooling given the very moist BL.  Thus, opted
to initialize the taf dry as light shra exits the region to the
east.  Winds will be a bit tricky through the remainder of the
evening as light northerly flow prevails initially, before light/vrb
flow dominates overnight.  As stated, did include a tempo for light
mvfr fog around daybreak leading into low vfr cu as lapse rates
steepen towards midday.  Lastly, tsra prob30 was included to account
for daytime heating induced convection Tuesday afternoon amongst
southwesterly flow.

Elsewhere:  Convection continues to work across portions of
northeast GA and the western Carolinas where the atm was either
untouched, or has had time to recover.  Am a bit uncertain as to how
much longer convection will last after sunset in the next hour, thus
did only carry vcts at all sites for a few hours before all wx is
removed.  Beyond that, morning fog is possible with the greatest
restrictions most likely at KAVL/KHKY.  Otherwise, the remainder of
the taf cycle is very similar to that of KCLT above as it pertains
to afternoon convection on Tuesday.  Winds through the period will
remain generally out of the s/sw aside for light/vrb flow
overnight.

Outlook: Fairly typical midsummer weather with PM showers and
thunderstorms expected through the end of the week. Fog and low
stratus will be possible in the mountain river valleys and also
in locations that receive heavy rainfall from diurnal thunderstorms.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  83%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
303 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH A WIND GUST TO
NEAR 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
657 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W CHESTER             34.70N 81.30W
07/11/2016                   CHESTER            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER HEARD OVER SCANNER THAT TREES WERE DOWN FROM THE
            STORM ON BATON ROUGE ROAD.

0410 PM     HAIL             5 NW CHESTER            34.76N 81.28W
07/11/2016  E0.50 INCH       CHESTER            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER THAT REPORTED TREES DOWN ON BATON ROUGE ROAD HAD
            MARBLE SIZED HAIL AT HIS RESIDENCE.

&&

OUTLAW

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