Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push slowly across the area tonight through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure should build in from the north for the
middle to latter part of the week. Another cold front is expected to
push into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
located across the east facing mtn slopes, the upper Savannah River
Valley, and the upstate of SC west of I-26. The convection was
developing within a larger pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE
across the region is generally weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to
1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that
the storms will favor a west to east track, speeds expected to range
from 10 to 20 kts. This environment should support the convection to
slide or develop east of the mtns through the afternoon and into the
evening hours. These storms may result in isolate wet microbursts
and pockets of heavy to excessive rainfall. NAM guidance indicates
that a second band of convection over middle KY/TN will cross the
mtns late this evening into early Tuesday morning. This activity may
remain largely intact across the mtns, but should fade east. I will
indicate likely POPs well into this evening along and north of I-85.
Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the mid 60s
across the mtns to around 70 east. Early morning fog will be
possible over areas wet ground across the mtns and foothills.

Tuesday, a second and stronger cold front will approach the forecast
area during the daylight hours. Morning convection will slide off to
the east. Later in the afternoon, a few new showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mtns and slide east.
I will indicate falling PoPs through the day, but will keep schc
PoPs to cover afternoon convection. Instability is forecast to
remain limited to less than 1500 J/kg, supporting general storms.
Highs are forecast to range from the low 80s within the mtn valleys
to the mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday, surface boundary will remain south/east of the
area through the short term, with the axis of the upper trough
positioned over the region. Nevertheless, the air mass north/west of
the front will modify rather quickly, with short term guidance
depicting at least moderate instability across much of the forecast
area each afternoon. Lee trough and terrain effects will act as a
focus for initiation of isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection
Wed and Thu afternoon/evening. Chances for severe convection, even
of the pulse variety appear quite small due to modest bouyancy.
Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday, a gradual pattern change is expected during the
medium range, with low amplitude troughing likely becoming displaced
by a ridge building into the region from the southwest by Day 7.
Another standard issue/diurnal convective day is in the offing for
Friday. However, convective chances are expected to increase Fri
night through the early part of the weekend, as a short wave digging
across the Great Lakes briefly amplifies the Eastern trough.
Attendant frontal boundary is expected to push into the forecast
area Saturday afternoon, providing a focus for better coverage of
showers and storms, and warranting a 40-60 pop across much of the
forecast area.

Uncertainty increases toward early next week, as substantive
differences exist among the global models regarding the progression
of the frontal boundary toward the Southeast coast. Specifically,
the ECMWF is much more progressive, indicating drying/diminishing
chances for convection early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS tends to
hang the boundary up close enough to the forecast area to suggest
good chances for convection persisting through the end of the
period. Due to this uncertainty, have opted to allow the forecast to
trend toward a more typical diurnal convective cycle, with
near-climo pops early next week. Temps will begin the period a few
degrees above climo, before dropping back to normal in the vicinity
of the front for Days 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: As of 2 pm, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
were located across the east facing slopes and across the upper
Savannah River Valley. The convection was developing within a larger
pool of CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE across the region is generally
weak, 500 J/kg across the mtns to 1000 J/kg across the Lakelands of
SC. Corfidi vectors indicate that the storms will favor a west to
east track, speeds expected to range from 10 to 20 kts. This
environment should support the convection to slide or develop east
of the mtns through the afternoon and into the evening hours. NAM
guidance indicates that a second band of convection over middle
KY/TN will cross the mtns late this evening into early Tuesday
morning. This activity may remain largely intact across the mtns,
but should fade east.

TAFs will feature periods of shra and tsra through 9z. The greatest
mention of TSRA will be given to KAVL, KHKY, KGSP, and KGMU. I will
indicate a broad mention of MVFR fog over KAVL and KHKY with the
arrival of drier mid level air late tonight. Light northwest winds
should remain during Tuesday morning, backing to SW by the afternoon.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late week.
Flight restrictions will be possible during any TSRA. In addition,
morning fog maybe possible over areas of recent rainfall.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  87%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  98%
KAVL       High  92%     Med   60%     Med   62%     High  91%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High  97%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-280830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
420 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IF SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING COULD RESULT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

NCZ056-502-504-271945-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-GREATER BURKE NC-CATAWBA NC-
308 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN BURKE AND NORTHWESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

AT 308 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES EAST OF MORGANTON...OR OVER RUTHERFORD COLLEGE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...LONGVIEW...SAWMILLS...GRANITE FALLS...VALDESE...ICARD...
HILDEBRAN...CONNELLY SPRINGS...RUTHERFORD COLLEGE AND RHODHISS.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8134 3580 8134 3579 8132 3561 8144
      3569 8164 3585 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 292DEG 20KT 3574 8151

KRENTZ

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