Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
749 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
forecast area today and tomorrow in advance of a cold front.
Following the frontal passage early Monday, dry high pressure will
overspread the region and persist into late week, resulting in
abnormally dry and stable weather through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday: Main changes for the early evening update are
primarily to aviation-related grids, but did make another round of
adjustments to PoPs to reflect current trends, with CAM guidance
still pointing to another slug of moisture moving into the area
overnight.

Otherwise, things get a bit more interesting into Sunday as the
primary h5 vortex responsible for the flooding over TX shifts east
while another sharp trof and associated surface cold front approach
the mid MS and OH river valleys.  The two primary upper features
look to phase into one nearly full latitude trof by Sunday morning
as the a fore mentioned cold front sweeps through the Bluegrass
region into the TN valley, eventually impacting the NC high terrain
by mid/late afternoon with the potent upper shortwave tied to it.
All in all, spc has placed the entire fcst area in the slight risk
for severe thunderstorms as enough instability and shear will be in
place for a more widespread convective event with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary threats.  Pops are respective of this
with likely levels spread over the entire fcst area through the
mid/late afternoon hours as the warm sector becomes active.
Temperatures on Sunday will be a bit cooler than today as the mid
levels moisten leading to greater sky coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Saturday, the latest short term guidance has continued
its trend of less progression with an initial short wave trough/
associated occluded front early in the period. In fact, the pattern
kind of comes to a screeching halt by Sunday night, as an upper low
develops between the Great Lakes and Hudsons Bay, and more short
wave energy digs southeast along the western periphery of this
vortex. Therefore, while guidance generally agrees in sweeping the
deeper moisture east of the area Sunday evening (bringing an end to
deep convective chances), there is a hint of a surface trough/
frontal remnant that lingers in the area through the period. In
fact, the latest guidance depicts a decent amount of instability
across the southern Piedmont zones Monday afternoon, albeit without
a great deal of qpf response. Pops have been nudged up into the
slight chance range for diurnal convection Monday PM.

The short term weather is further complicated by expected tropical
cyclone development across the Gulf of Mexico early in the week,
which the global models agree in tracking across the northern
peninsula/eastern panhandle of Florida. This could pass close enough
to the CWA to spread some moisture into the southern zones Mon/Mon
night. Low pops have therefore been continued through early Tue
across those areas. With the lower thickness values expected to
remain north of the area, Monday should be another rather hot day,
with temps in the mid-80 to near 90 expected in the Piedmont,
although the air mass should be quite a bit drier than what we are
currently experiencing. Otherwise, temps are expected to be fairly
close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 PM EDT Saturday, the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with broad upper trofing over the eastern CONUS and steep
ridging over the west. The upper trof axis is expected to rotate
over the fcst area on Wednesday and lift offshore early Thursday.
The upper ridge will gradually slide farther east and begin to build
over the region by the end of the period early next weekend.

At the sfc, Canadian high pressure will be overspreading the region
by early Wednesday as what's left of the Gulf of Mexico tropical low
moves off the Carolina Coast. Over the next couple of days, the high
will slide southeast and settle over the fcst area. By late
Fri/early Sat, the long range models bring some sort of weak
backdoor cold front to our doorstep with reinforcing high pressure
behind the front. As for the sensible fcst, conditions should remain
dry with temps rebounding thru the period. By Friday, highs will
likely be at or above 90 degrees for most of the lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through most of the period, with the
exception of reduced vsby in TSRA, and another round of IFR to LIFR
fog/low stratus at KAVL. As for convection, round of TSRA moving
east and still should impact KCLT this evening, otherwise just
included VCSH for TAFs. Guidance indicating increase in SHRA/TSRA
coverage overnight, maybe 06z-12z, but not enough confidence to
increase wording or add tempo. TSRA should be on the increase by 15-
16z Sunday ahead of a front. Have continued late morning PROB30
everywhere and introduced prevailing TSRA starting as early as 17z
for KAVL, spreading east and starting 19z for KCLT. SSW to SW winds
should pick up 10-15kt Sunday with some low-end gusts possible, with
gustiness also possible in TSRA. Some hints at MVFR cigs spreading
into the Upstate from the SW late in the period but have not
introduced at this time.

Outlook...The cold front will probably become stationary east of the
forecast area early next week, but some convection/restrictions
maybe possible Monday. Another cold front, considerably drier, will
push across the region on Tuesday. In the wake of the cold front, a
Canadian air mass will settle over the area into next weekend.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  95%     High  95%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Low   26%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   66%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-051045-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...BUT THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-051045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...BUT THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

SCZ014-042330-
CHESTER SC-
701 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CHESTER
COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 700 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CHESTER...OR NEAR CHESTER STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHESTER...RICHBURG...LOWRYS...CHESTER STATE PARK...CORNWELL AND
BLACKSTOCK.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 8123 3466 8136 3482 8124 3482 8114
      3468 8096 3456 8117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 223DEG 8KT 3466 8123

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
710 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

SCZ012-013-042345-
UNION SC-LAURENS SC-
710 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LAURENS
AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 710 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF UNION...OR 7 MILES EAST OF CLINTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNION...MONARCH MILL...BUFFALO...ROSE HILL STATE PARK...JONESVILLE...
CLINTON...SANTUC...CROSS KEYS AND SEDALIA.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 8188 3484 8167 3474 8149 3472 8148
      3472 8145 3468 8145 3465 8144 3450 8159
      3453 8162 3453 8164 3452 8165 3446 8170
      3445 8172 3442 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 213DEG 16KT 3452 8175

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
713 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ036-037-042345-
DAVIE NC-IREDELL NC-
713 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN IREDELL
AND NORTHWESTERN DAVIE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 713 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF STATESVILLE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOVE VALLEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... HARMONY...LOVE VALLEY...UNION
GROVE...TURNERSBURG...SHEFFIELD AND OLIN.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8057 3582 8086 3593 8102 3597 8100
      3606 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 220DEG 24KT 3594 8089

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
723 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ048>050-050000-
YANCEY NC-MADISON NC-MITCHELL NC-
723 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MADISON...NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND NORTHWESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES
UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 723 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF MARS HILL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOLF RIDGE...POPLAR...FAUST AND ALLENSTAND.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3615 8220 3585 8258 3597 8275 3604 8269
      3606 8263 3603 8259 3600 8261 3599 8260
      3597 8261 3595 8256 3601 8246 3608 8241
      3611 8237 3614 8229 3613 8227 3613 8225
      3616 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 220DEG 24KT 3597 8261

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
749 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

SCZ012>014-050015-
UNION SC-LAURENS SC-CHESTER SC-
749 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
LAURENS...CENTRAL UNION AND WEST CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTIES UNTIL 815
PM EDT...

AT 748 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTH OF UNION...OR NEAR WHITMIRE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... UNION...MONARCH
MILL...BUFFALO...ROSE HILL STATE PARK...CARLISLE...SANTUC...
ADAMSBURG AND SEDALIA.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 8182 3485 8165 3473 8136 3448 8155
      3451 8161 3453 8162 3452 8163 3453 8164
      3450 8167 3446 8170 3445 8172 3444 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 206DEG 27KT 3451 8169

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
821 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ071-082-SCZ009-014-050100-
UNION NC-MECKLENBURG NC-CHESTER SC-YORK SC-
821 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MECKLENBURG...UNION...SOUTHEASTERN YORK AND NORTHEASTERN CHESTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 820 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ROCK
HILL TO 6 MILES EAST OF LANCASTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCK HILL...MONROE...SOUTH CHARLOTTE...MATTHEWS...MINT HILL...INDIAN
TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...FORT MILL...STALLINGS AND UNIONVILLE.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...TRY
TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY
FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN
INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED
ELECTRONIC DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORMS APPROACH.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8032 3481 8035 3482 8080 3487 8080
      3485 8087 3482 8090 3474 8087 3484 8114
      3505 8091 3492 8086 3486 8088 3488 8079
      3494 8078 3506 8089 3527 8067 3516 8046
      3518 8037 3517 8036 3519 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 228DEG 38KT 3485 8103 3471 8067

07