Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

668 
WWUS52 KGSP 312014
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NCC149-SCC083-312045-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-160531T2045Z/
POLK NC-SPARTANBURG SC-
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL POLK AND NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLUMBUS...AND
IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...LANDRUM...FINGERVILLE...GOWENSVILLE AND GREEN CREEK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 8201 3512 8222 3514 8222 3526 8221
      3529 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 353DEG 4KT 3522 8217 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOORE

546 
WWUS52 KGSP 312036
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NCC149-SCC083-312046-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-160531T2045Z/
POLK NC-SPARTANBURG SC-
436 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL POLK AND
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3514 8201 3512 8222 3514 8222 3526 8221
      3529 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 345DEG 6KT 3522 8217 

$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
236 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of tropical system Bonnie will slowly lift northeast
along the Carolina Coast over the next couple of days. Moisture will
increase ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the northwest
on Friday. The front will stall out over the area over the weekend,
with a stronger cold front moving through the region early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM: Deep convection has broken out over portions of
the NC mountains, with an appreciable Cu field covering much of
the Piedmont. An area of congested cumulus just north and NE of
Spartanburg has now also produced some heavy showers. Taking the
CWFA as a whole, our various convection allowing models are not
handling the coverage very well, mostly because they have been
overdone with coverage all day. Based on the development so far,
and what happened yesterday under similar circumstances, the
current activity is likely to expand mainly southward. Isolated
cells however are expected over the eastern Piedmont zones and
Savannah River Valley before the end of the day. The storms so far
have produced just heavy rain, and while profiles don't support
a particularly great damaging wind threat, the weak shear implies
storms will remain in pulse mode and an isolated large hail event
or downburst is plausible.

Lapse rates are expected to remain unchanged tonight, with a
similarly weakly forced environment as we experienced Mon night
into early Tue. The low level flow is expected to veer, which could
provide some slight upslope forcing and showers to linger into the
early morning. I have handled this trending PoPs down more slowly
than they would on a typical diurnal curve. Despite the easterly
flow, low stratus looks unlikely (particularly given that it was
overforecast by guidance for today). Min temps will be a few degrees
above climo on account of partial cloudiness from convective debris,
and humid conditions. Overall the pattern will have changed little
by Wed aftn. Another round of diurnal thunderstorms is expected,
mainly forming over the mountains and moving into the foothills,
but with isolated to scattered cells developing over the Piedmont as
well. Weak wind profiles still point to pulse storms and associated
threats. Max temps will be a degree or two above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday: Flat ridging builds over the Southeastern US
through the period. Weak low level easterly flow remains in place
across the area Thursday as the remnants of Bonnie slowly move north
along the NC coast. With warm temps and copious low level moisture
in place, moderate instability will develop once again. Expect
numerous convective coverage to develop across the mountains with
high end scattered coverage elsewhere. Low level flow becomes
southwesterly on Friday as a weak cold front moves into the area
from the NW. Low level moisture remains quite high which keeps
moderate instability across the area. Expect convective coverage to
be similar if not slightly greater than Thursday. Shear remains weak
even with the approach of the frontal system. However, expect a few
severe storms to develop each day given the instability and
convective coverage. Isolated flooding is also possible with slow
moving storms both days. Highs rise from a couple of degrees above
normal on Thursday to around 5 degrees above normal Friday. Lows
will be up to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Tuesday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Saturday with relatively flat upper ridging over the southeast and a
nearly stationary southern stream upper low over Texas. Over the
next 24 to 48 hours, steep upper ridging amplifies over the Western
CONUS and broad upper troffing digs down over the Great Lakes. The
upper trof axis is expected to be east of the fcst area by the end
of the medium range on Tuesday as the upper ridge spreads farther
east.

At the sfc, the long range models are coming into better agreement
wrt the evolution of the sfc pattern. The pattern remains fairly
stagnate and weakly forced on Sat and most of Sun as a stalled cold
front lingers over the region keeping deep lyr moisture and healthy
amounts of instability in place. A stronger cold front approaches
the CWFA on Sunday and is expected to move thru the fcst area
sometime late Sunday into early Monday with drier and cooler air
overspreading the region in the front's wake. As for the sensible
fcst, I kept solid chance to low end likely chances for numerous
showers and ts on Saturday and Sunday. Drying is expected during the
latter half of Monday with dry conditions for Tuesday. Temps will
start out just above climatology and cool on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT: There is potential for a TSRA to impact the field this
afternoon and early evening. Some meso model runs depict clustered
storms moving thru the KCLT area, though based on these models'
poor performance so far today, this appears too unlikely to warrant
a mention. A TEMPO may be needed in subsequent amendments, but most
likely all impactful convection will remain west of the field. Low
VFR Cu will persist into early evening, with some stratocu or altocu
seen overnight. Guidance that suggested restrictive stratus would
move overhead this (Tue) morning was incorrect, and under nearly
the same pattern the same guidance is making the same prediction for
Wed. I will maintain VFR fcst. Winds remaining in NE quad and light.

Elsewhere: SCT +SHRA/TSRA are expected to grow in coverage thru
mid-aftn, gradually moving S-SE off the Blue Ridge. TEMPOs are
included accordingly at KAVL/KGSP/KGMU. A chance does exist at
KHKY/KAND though not great enough to warrant a TEMPO. Some showers
will linger into tonight though likely not having much impact. Some
patchy fog is expected to develop over the mtns early Wed AM,
particularly where +RA falls today, and perhaps at KAND. Winds will
be mainly SW at KAVL and NE elsewhere, going light/VRB overnight.

Outlook...Remnant low from former tropical cyclone Bonnie is
expected to move very slowly up the coastal Carolinas over the
next several days, maintaining increased precip and morning
stratus chances at KCLT. Otherwise, patchy fog chances continue
at KAVL each morning, with scattered afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA
increasing in coverage throughout during the week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  95%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  97%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  97%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...Wimberley

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
ALL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS
QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

GAZ010-311845-
RABUN GA-
213 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
RABUN COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLAYTON...OR 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SKY VALLEY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... CLAYTON...MOUNTAIN
CITY...TIGER...DILLARD...SKY VALLEY...TALLULAH GORGE STATE
PARK...BLACK ROCK MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...LAKEMONT AND PINE MOUNTAIN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8339 3500 8314 3498 8311 3491 8316
      3489 8320 3488 8321 3488 8324 3485 8325
      3485 8327 3482 8327 3483 8329 3482 8331
      3481 8330 3479 8332 3476 8332 3474 8335
      3472 8335 3491 8356
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 049DEG 8KT 3494 8327

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NCZ501-502-312000-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
327 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALDWELL
COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 326 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES WEST OF LENOIR...OR NEAR GAMEWELL...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LENOIR...GAMEWELL...CAJAH'S MOUNTAIN...COLLETTSVILLE...EDGEMONT AND
PATTERSON.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 8146 3585 8152 3583 8161 3584 8163
      3585 8164 3588 8171 3601 8178 3601 8177
      3606 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 165DEG 4KT 3591 8164

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NCZ507>510-312030-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-EASTERN POLK NC-
POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
RUTHERFORD AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...LAKE LURE...CHIMNEY ROCK STATE PARK...LAKE ADGER...GREEN
CREEK...MILL SPRING AND GREEN HILL.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 8210 3527 8192 3519 8202 3519 8213
      3520 8215 3520 8217 3540 8226 3547 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 334DEG 6KT 3531 8213

MOORE