Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

890 
WWUS52 KGSP 111930
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

GAC257-111939-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160511T1945Z/
STEPHENS GA-
330 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR STEPHENS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR STEPHENS COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3427 8312 3447 8337 3448 8318 3454 8311
      3453 8310 3453 8308 3452 8309 3450 8307
      3450 8305 3449 8305 3441 8310 3435 8311
      3434 8310 3428 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 324DEG 15KT 3453 8306 3442 8323 

$$

GAC119-111945-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160511T1945Z/
FRANKLIN GA-
330 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 329 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SENECA TO 3 MILES NORTH OF
CARNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...PUBLIC. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARNESVILLE...ROYSTON...LAVONIA...GUMLOG...CANON...TUGALOO STATE PARK...
VICTORIA BRYANT STATE PARK...MARTIN AND FRANKLIN SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED
AREA. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE STORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING OF
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. SMALL STREAMS WILL
RISE RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER
THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...
2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING
HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 8312 3447 8337 3448 8318 3454 8311
      3453 8310 3453 8308 3452 8309 3450 8307
      3450 8305 3449 8305 3441 8310 3435 8311
      3434 8310 3428 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 324DEG 15KT 3453 8306 3442 8323 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
207 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY
FRIDAY BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...satellite imagery continues to show
extensive mid/high level convective debris across the central and
nrn mountains of NC, the NC Foothills, and the western Piedmont. The
convective debris keeps getting reinforced from the NW, so I am
beginning to think convection won't amount to much east of I-26 and
north of the NC/SC border. Meanwhile...as expected...the debris has
left us a diffuse cloudy/clear boundary, and south/west of that
boundary we have destabilized to the point that deep convection has
developed. SPC mesoanalysis shows sbCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg
and dCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg, while shear is minimal. Think
the area S/W of I-26 will see scattered strong to severe storms thru
the late afternoon/early eve. Precip chances have been adjusted a
bit to account for this. Temp trends will be modulated by thicker
cloud cover and movement of precip.

Otherwise...expect a little warmer that yesterday but with high
humidity keeping it moist and uncomfortable this afternoon...and
warmer overnight tonight that we should see this morning.

In other news, we have made the switch to mixed case in our Area
Forecast Discussion. Isn't it nice to not be yelled at any more?

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Wednesday...the short term FCST picks up at 12z on
Thursday with amplified upper ridging over most of the eastern conus
and an upper TROF axis just west of the Great Lakes. Over the next
couple of days the ridge will get pushed off the East Coast as the
TROF digs down over the region and multiple closed lows develop
within it.

On Thursday...SFC high pressure over New England will slide offshore
as a cold front approaches the Carolinas from the west. Warm and
moist SWLY boundary layer flow will persist over the region thru the
day with weak lee TROFFING setting up early in the day. This should
provide good chances for sct to widespread convection with ample SFC
based CAPE and moderate low to mid level shear especially over the
northern zones.

On Friday...the models have been trending slower with the front's
arrival and have it reaching the CWFA by early Friday and moving
thru the area during the day/evening. I still expect peak coverage
of convection to occur during the mid to late morning hours with the
high likelihood of organized showers and TSTMS. Based on the timing
of the fropa...sfc-based CAPE should be kept to a minimum...however
elevated CAPE will linger thru Thurs night/Fri morning. Convection
should push east of the CWFA during the afternoon...with falling
pops from west to east thru the evening. High temps on Friday should
be about 4 to 8 degrees cooler than Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...the medium range FCST picks up at 12z on
Saturday with very broad upper TROFFING in place over the eastern
half of the conus and ridging over the west. The TROF is expected to
flatten over the next 24 to 48 hours as the TROF axis gradually
slides eastward. By late in the weekend...the upper pattern will be
mostly flat over the SE region as most of the PVA has lifted to our
north. As we move into early next week...the long range guidance
suggests that heights will start to rise again as weak ridging tries
to build back over the Gulf of Mexico.

At the sfc...another cold front is expected to approach the forecast
area from the NW at the start of the period Sat morning. This front
should be weaker and drier than the previous front the day before
with a fairly quick passage overall. Behind the front...cooler and
drier high pressure spreads back over the region. as we move into
early next...the high slides SE and off the SE coast thus allowing
more moist SLY flow to return to the FCST area. The weekend should
be mostly dry with chances for sct to widespread showers and ts
increasing on Mon and Tues. Temps should remain near normal for most
of the period with cooler values possible towards the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT...satellite imagery shows extensive mid/high level
convective debris, while observations reveal a scattered low cloud
underneath. An old outflow boundary has moved past the site which
has brought winds around light from the NW. This may continue for
the first few hours, but think that if the high clouds thin and we
break out the low clouds, the wind will come around to SW. This has
been indicated in the new TAF. The mesoscale models continue to
suggest that activity over the NC mountains will develop along/ride
down the cloudy/clear boundary and over the CLT metro area in the
late afternoon. Have kept the TEMPO group for thunder accordingly,
along with an occasional NW wind, but the confidence in this
happening is starting to wane. Either way, the convection should be
gone by 00Z, after which more convective debris is expected. Wind is
forecast to shift back around to light NW in the pre-dawn hours on
Thursday. A fog restriction may develop around daybreak Thursday if
precip falls later today. This was left out for now because of high
uncertainty.

Elsewhere...KHKY will remain under the convective debris through the
rest of the day. Expect the IFR ceiling to end quickly. KAVL will be
on the edge and should see a few storms nearby. The Upstate airports
have the best chance at seeing thunderstorms and one is headed
toward KAND at TAF issuance time. The storms should fade quickly
with sunset. Similar to KCLT, fog may be added for early Thursday
morning at any site that has precip later today.

Outlook...scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated flight
restrictions are possible Thursday afternoon and Friday...as a cold
front pushes across the area. Drier weather and VFR conditions
should return for the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High  97%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High  94%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High  97%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  97%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category.  Complet hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
626 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGER
HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
905 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

NCZ048-051>053-111345-
HAYWOOD NC-BUNCOMBE NC-SWAIN NC-MADISON NC-
905 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF MADISON...
NORTHEASTERN SWAIN...NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE AND HAYWOOD COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 AM EDT...

AT 905 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTH OF
GREENEVILLE TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF SEVIERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...LAKE JUNALUSKA...WEAVERVILLE...MARS HILL...MAGGIE VALLEY...HOT
SPRINGS...LEICESTER...SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CATALOOCHEE...SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BIG
CREEK AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BALSAM MOUNTAIN.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3597 8261 3598 8251 3582 8241
      3580 8234 3575 8234 3546 8311 3551 8316
      3551 8326 3559 8347 3566 8330 3576 8316
      3579 8308 3578 8299 3588 8290 3593 8292
      3595 8287 3593 8281 3600 8278 3606 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1305Z 288DEG 24KT 3597 8282 3571 8359

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

SCZ001-004-111745-
GREATER OCONEE SC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
120 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OCONEE
COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 120 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALHALLA...OR 4 MILES WEST OF WESTMINSTER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SENECA...WESTMINSTER...OAKWAY...FAIR PLAY AND TOWNVILLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...
2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING
HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8309 3453 8308 3453 8310 3459 8317
      3461 8316 3461 8323 3465 8328 3474 8322
      3466 8284 3464 8283 3463 8285 3463 8284
      3462 8284 3462 8286 3461 8286 3447 8300
      3447 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 294DEG 16KT 3467 8317

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-SCZ001-004-010-111945-
FRANKLIN GA-HART GA-STEPHENS GA-RABUN GA-HABERSHAM GA-
GREATER OCONEE SC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-ANDERSON SC-
213 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
HART...STEPHENS...HABERSHAM...FRANKLIN...RABUN...OCONEE AND ANDERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF SENECA TO 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF CLEVELAND. THE STORMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDERSON...TOCCOA...SENECA...CLARKESVILLE...HOMELAND PARK...BELTON...
CORNELIA...NORTHLAKE...HONEA PATH AND BALDWIN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...
2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING
HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 8368 3477 8315 3466 8284 3464 8283
      3463 8285 3462 8285 3465 8281 3448 8232
      3438 8248 3442 8338 3446 8340 3447 8342
      3449 8353 3448 8356 3452 8364 3455 8362
      3466 8366 3474 8362 3477 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 291DEG 21KT 3460 8294 3470 8384

08