Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

145 
WWUS52 KGSP 152302
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
702 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

NCC071-109-119-152311-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-160815T2330Z/
MECKLENBURG NC-GASTON NC-LINCOLN NC-
702 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MECKLENBURG...EASTERN
GASTON AND SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3540 8077 3539 8076 3511 8092 3517 8112
      3555 8100 3555 8096 3553 8094 3553 8095
      3551 8096 3549 8095 3551 8091 3551 8079
      3549 8079 3542 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 199DEG 26KT 3536 8093 

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
549 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic will continue to be the main
feature impacting our weather early this week and maintaining warm
and humid conditions. A cold front will slip southeast through the
Ohio Valley Wednesday. This front will lay out across the Carolinas
and Georgia Thursday and enhance the chances for mainly afternoon
showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 5:30p EDT:  A few widely scattered showers around southeastern
parts of the CWA will likely continue for the next few hours, though
current radar coverage is well-below that predicted by the HRRR
model.  Showers have been training near the CLT area, though they
have been moderate in strength and have seen little lightning. Other
CAMs have widely scattered showers, more numerous over the mountains
until 7Z or so.

A 596 dm subtropical ridge remains centered just off the coastal
Carolinas with strong ridging extending westward over the southern
Appalachians. Under the ridge, southerly flow is maintaining
dewpoints around 70 degrees across the region and producing SBCAPE
values of 2500+ J/kg early this afternoon across most of the area.
DCAPEs are increasing to around 1000+ J/kg across the NC piedmont
this afternoon to support a very marginal severe tstm risk there. It
would likely take 55 dBZ cores above 25 kft to become severe in this
area. The HRRR still produces the most afternoon convection along
the mountain ridges and the steering flow should take this activity
northward into eastern TN to keep coverage down in the chance range
across our area.

Despite a downward trend in convection this evening, the NAM
continues to insist on isolated to scattered tstms arriving in the
lower piedmont late this evening along the remnant seabreeze
boundary. Will include low end PoPs there to address this
possibility through 06Z.

Otherwise, the dominant upper ridge will remain in place through
Tuesday. A diurnal convective trend is once again expected, with
higher chance PoPs over the mountains Tuesday afternoon but with
activity possibly running out east across western NC through late
day in more westerly steering flow and along outflows. Expect mins
to continue at least two categories above climo, with maxes about a
category above.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At 200 PM Monday: On Tuesday night an upper ridge will extend from
the Atlantic to the Southern Appalachians, while an upper trough
will be over the upper MS River Valley and Southern Plains. The
pattern deamplifies by Wednesday such that upper ridging extends
west to the Southern Plains, and the upper trough to the north
reaches the Great Lakes. A shortwave associated with the northern
trough approaches the Southern Appalachians on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

At the surface, on Tuesday night a slow moving cold front will
extend from the OH River Valley to Southern Texas. Gulf moisture
ahead of the front will be greatest in the MS RIver Valley, however
notable moisture will be reaching the Southern Appalachians. The
front slowly reaches the our area by Thursday, accompanied by
deep moisture. As a result, precipitation chances will increase over
our area, while instability remains sufficient for convection,
perhaps lingering overnight. The models generally show wind shear to
be weak, but at times it does appear to increase briefly, mainly
when instability is past it's peak. Temperature will exhibit a
reduced diurnal range due to increasing moisture and cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
At 200 PM Monday: On Thursday night a weak upper ridge will remain
over the Southeastern States, while a east to west oriented
shortwave appears to stall over our area. This shortwave weakens
over our area through the weekend, while a weakening upper trough
crosses the MS River Valley. A shortwave moving through the trough
crosses the Southern Appalachians on Sunday and Monday.

At the surface, on Thursday night a cold front stalls to the south
of our area, accompanied deep moisture. The front appears to stall
just to our south, remaining there through the weekend, with
associated moisture lingering over our area. Model time heights hint
a somewhat reduced instability on Saturday, with a gradual increase
thereafter into Monday. Although southwesterly isentropic upglide
will be favorable for increasing rainfall rates, upslope flow into
the Blue Ridge will be limited. Temperatures will continue to
exhibit a reduced diurnal range due to cloud cover and moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: A modest cumulus field has developed around the airfield
with bases around 5 kft. Instability, both upward and downward, are
a bit less than farther north near the I-40 corridor and the lack of
triggers should allow convection to be omitted in the TAF. There is
a small risk of remnant seabreeze convection making a run from the
southeast overnight, but confidence is far too low to mention.
Expect mainly light SSE to SSW flow through the period, with
scattered cumulus during daytime heating and thin cirrus overnight.

Elsewhere: Steering flow is taking the mountain ridge top convection
northward into eastern TN this afternoon so will only mention VCTS
at KAVL versus any TEMPO groups at this point. Will also mention
VCSH early and then VCTS later this afternoon at KHKY with more
triggering occurring in the NC piedmont/foothills and the potential
for outflows to develop. Otherwise, the SC TAFs will stay dry.
Expect light S to SW surface winds through the period, with daytime
cumulus and nighttime cirrus. Another round of mountain valley fog
is expected to develop with similar timing to last night yielding
IFR to LIFR fog/stratus at KAVL toward daybreak.

Outlook: Scattered, mainly diurnal, thunderstorms will gradually
increase in coverage from mid to late week as better moisture and a
weak front settle in from the NW. The frontal boundary may stall in
the vicinity over the weekend to keep higher than normal chances of
thunderstorms going. Morning fog/stratus will be possible each day
in the NC mountain valleys, and possibly in locations that receive
soaking rains the previous aftn/evening.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Low   38%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  89%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/WJM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-161900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
249 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW STORMS MAY
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

NCZ037-151800-
DAVIE NC-
136 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DAVIE COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 135 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MOCKSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOCKSVILLE...BERMUDA RUN...COOLEEMEE...SHEFFIELD...FARMINGTON...FORK
CHURCH AND ADVANCE.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3591 8037 3581 8056 3595 8070 3605 8058
      3605 8050 3604 8049 3606 8046 3603 8044
      3600 8041 3599 8042 3596 8038 3593 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 230DEG 28KT 3593 8056

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

NCZ071-152230-
MECKLENBURG NC-
602 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 602 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 6 MILES WEST OF UPTOWN CHARLOTTE...OR NEAR
CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS AIRPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTERSVILLE...CENTRAL CHARLOTTE...SOUTHWEST CHARLOTTE...NORTHWEST
CHARLOTTE...CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS AIRPORT AND PAW CREEK.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 8089 3514 8100 3535 8097 3535 8096
      3536 8092 3537 8095 3538 8096 3539 8096
      3538 8084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 185DEG 10KT 3520 8095

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-152300-
GASTON NC-MECKLENBURG NC-YORK SC-
627 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN GASTON AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

AT 626 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF ROCK HILL...OR OVER TOWN OF LAKE WYLIE...MOVING NORTH
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... GASTONIA...TEGA CAY...TOWN OF
LAKE WYLIE...LAKE WYLIE...STEELE CREEK... CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS
AIRPORT...CRAMERTON...CAROWINDS...BELMONT AND SOUTHWEST CHARLOTTE.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LAKE WYLIE IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8097 3502 8112 3523 8117 3523 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 179DEG 15KT 3510 8105

ARK