Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

915 
WWUS52 KGSP 152245
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NCC119-179-152330-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0158.000000T0000Z-160715T2330Z/
MECKLENBURG NC-UNION NC-
645 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES...

AT 644 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF UPTOWN CHARLOTTE TO 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ROCK HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONROE...SOUTH CHARLOTTE...MATTHEWS...MINT HILL...INDIAN TRAIL...
WEDDINGTON...STALLINGS...UNIONVILLE...PINEVILLE AND WESLEY CHAPEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE STORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING OF
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. SMALL STREAMS WILL
RISE RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER
THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 8078 3511 8094 3525 8063 3518 8050
      3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044 3517 8042
      3516 8039 3502 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 238DEG 21KT 3521 8066 3504 8082 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LANE

435 
WWUS52 KGSP 152329
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NCC119-179-152338-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0158.000000T0000Z-160715T2330Z/
MECKLENBURG NC-UNION NC-
729 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG AND
CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM EDT...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF UNION COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3494 8078 3511 8094 3525 8063 3518 8050
      3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044 3517 8042
      3516 8039 3502 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 251DEG 21KT 3521 8066 3504 8082 

$$

LANE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
603 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will drop toward the Southern Appalachians today
and then stall across the area through the weekend, enhancing rain
and thunderstorm chances. Another weak front will approach the
region by the middle of next week, keeping the area in an
active summertime pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 6 PM: Recent satellite loop indicated a expanding and
developing CU field across the eastern foothills and Piedmont.
Latest radar loop indicated numerous showers and thunderstorms
within the CU field, tracking ENE. I will update the forecast to
indicate likely PoPs east of the the mtns. Several areas have temps
fall during downpours, I will update with the latest sfc analysis to
highlight some of the cool spots.

At 230 PM Friday: A low amplitude upper trough will slowly progress
across the southern Appalachians through Saturday, with a weak
shortwave moving over the mountains overnight. A surface trough will
remain east of the mountains during the same time frame. Deep Gulf
moisture streaming northeast along this trough, combined with modest
instability, will support precipitation production, especially
during daylight hours when instability will be best. Relatively weak
shear will not be especially conducive to organized convection, but
modest steering flow may yield copious rainfall totals, especially
if cells can train across the same areas. Temperatures will run near
normal under the upper trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 pm EDT Friday:  Upper forcing will linger over the
forecast area through Saturday night as the axis of a broad eastern
CONUS trough lifts through the region. The surface cold front in the
vicinity will gradually wash out as the thermal contrast is lost,
but lingering PoPs will continue, especially in SE sections,
overnight. 500 mb heights will then steadily build from the west on
Sunday with the surface Bermuda high becoming slowly resurgent.
Despite some deeper layer drying, the boundary layer should remain
moist enough for scattered ridgetop convection on Sunday which could
migrate into the foothills on outflows along with daytime heating. A
weak lee trough will persist in the piedmont as well.

595 dm 500 mb heights will ridge over the southern Appalachians by
Monday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection is likely
again on Monday with the greatest coverage in and near the
mountains. Better insolation will return as well, with slightly
hotter temperatures and possibly more robust late day SBCAPE values.
With the upper flow pattern amplifying between the central CONUS
ridge and the East Coast trough by late Monday, we'll have to be
cognizant of midwestern convection that could make a run toward the
southern Appalachians near the end of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...The medium range picks up at 00Z Tuesday with
a sprawling upper ridge building over the central plains. During the
day on Tuesday, an upper trough will dig southward into the eastern
side of the ridge. This will allow our area to come under broad
cyclonic flow, with a shortwave approaching and surface boundary
being ushered into the southern Appalachians by northwesterly flow
Tuesday afternoon. The previously mentioned forcings appear to
collide favorably with the peak in diurnal heating, so Tuesday
afternoon/evening looks like the most likely time frame in the
extended period for showers and thunderstorms. Some remnants of the
frontal boundary will stall over our area on Wednesday, and with
another shortwave pivoting around the base of the upper trough on
the east coast, diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity may be
slightly enhanced above climo on Wednesday as well. Guidance
disagrees on exactly how/when the upper ridge will break down, so
went with an ECMWF-heavy eastward expansion of the ridge and drying
influence for our CWA on Thursday and Friday. Given the variability
guidance has shown in max and min temps for the extended period over
the past few days, temps were kept near climo as a compromise.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT...Low VFR cigs are supported by model data as clouds increase
this afternoon. Convection will be most likely late this afternoon
and early this evening with the best instability. A guidance blend
supports MVFR vsby around daybreak Saturday, but no cig restrictions.
Another round of convection is expected on Saturday, with the best
support after this TAF issuance. Winds will veer from SE to NW this
afternoon, the northeast this evening, the southeast overnight, and
the southwest Saturday morning, as weak surface system moves across
the area.

Elsewhere...Low VFR cigs are expected to form as cloud cover
increases this afternoon. Convection is possible at all sites this
afternoon with increasing instability, persisting into the evening.
IFR or lower cigs are expected in mountain valleys around dawn,
including at KAVL, while low VFR persists to the east. Daybreak
vsbys are expected to be MVFR at foothill sites, and IFR at KAVL.
Another round of convection is expected on Saturday, but the best
support will be after this TAF package. Winds will veer from SW to
NW this afternoon, then become light and variable overnight. On
Friday winds favor the NW, perhaps veering SW late in the forecast.

Outlook...Fairly typical midsummer weather with PM showers and
thunderstorms expected to continue. A frontal boundary pushing in
this weekend will enhance the daily coverage thereof. Each day, AM
fog and low stratus will be possible in the mountain river valleys
and also in locations that receive heavy rainfall in the preceding
PM.

Confidence Table...

            22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z        16-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   72%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  91%     Med   72%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   66%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-161915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
313 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY HAIL PRODUCED
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN QUARTER SIZE. ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NCZ071-152130-
MECKLENBURG NC-
508 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 507 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES EAST OF UPTOWN CHARLOTTE...OR NEAR MINT HILL...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINT HILL AND EAST CHARLOTTE.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3516 8061 3517 8071 3524 8074 3526 8065
      3522 8057 3519 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 263DEG 11KT 3522 8065

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
529 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

SCZ013-152145-
UNION SC-
529 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

AT 529 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF UNION...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONARCH MILL...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONARCH MILL AND SANTUC.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3464 8160 3471 8161 3473 8148 3473 8146
      3471 8145 3468 8145 3465 8144 3463 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 258DEG 17KT 3468 8149

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
531 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

SCZ009-152145-
YORK SC-
531 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

AT 531 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES WEST OF YORK...OR NEAR HICKORY GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHARON...HICKORY GROVE AND SMYRNA.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3493 8125 3495 8149 3497 8149 3498 8148
      3501 8148 3503 8149 3505 8147 3505 8141
      3506 8140 3509 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 258DEG 16KT 3500 8140

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

NCZ072-152200-
CABARRUS NC-
546 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CABARRUS COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN CONCORD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN CONCORD AND MT PLEASANT.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3527 8045 3529 8058 3539 8061 3546 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 260DEG 14KT 3534 8052

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
557 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

SCZ005-006-010-152230-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-ANDERSON SC-
557 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
PICKENS...CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND NORTH CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 556 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE
DOWNTOWN TO NEAR CLEMSON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...EASLEY...CLEMSON...WEST GREENVILLE...BEREA...
WELCOME...POWDERSVILLE...CENTRAL...LIBERTY AND NORRIS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8236 3466 8282 3477 8288 3493 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 323DEG 6KT 3486 8245 3471 8282

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
617 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

SCZ014-152245-
CHESTER SC-
617 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 617 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHESTER TO 16 MILES EAST OF UNION...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHESTER...CHESTER STATE PARK...LOWRYS AND LEEDS.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3482 8109 3462 8123 3464 8141 3479 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 253DEG 15KT 3476 8126 3465 8135

LANE