Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
211 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance will make its way across the area today. A warm
and unstable airmass should persist across the region for the
remainder of the work week as a cold front approaches the area on
Saturday. This front should stall out somewhere near the area toward
the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 PM, a typically messy convective picture is evolving this
afternoon, with a couple of cells having popped across the NW NC
Piedmont in association with a weak upper air disturbance, while
within the more robustly unstable air, a cluster of convection is
moving toward the SW corner of the CWA from central GA (and plenty
of additional activity is developing out ahead of that across the
western Upstate). Elsewhere, coverage is isolated at best, perhaps
due to weak subsidence in the wake of aforementioned wave (and also
where instability is not especially high. Meanwhile, The activity
across GA and SC is generally moving E/SE along the gradient in
sbCAPE. The lower SC Piedmont will therefore get the highest pops,
60 percent over the next few hours. Elsewhere, will allow chances to
gradually ramp up to 30-40 percent by late afternoon. Localized
damaging winds will remain possible, especially along/south of I-85
in the Upstate and northeast Georgia, where clustering along outflow
boundaries is most likely (and a Severe Tstorm Watch has recently
been issued).

The diurnal convection should dissipate through late evening, but
additional activity may drop SE toward the southern Appalachians
overnight, so an uptick in PoP along the TN border is warranted from
06Z to 12Z Thursday. Expect another mild night of near record high
minimum temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
At 230 AM Wednesday: On Thursday morning nearly zonal upper flow
will be over CONUS, with very low amplitude troughing over the
eastern seaboard, and minor ridging over the MS River Valley.
Several modest lobes of vorticity will mover through the eastern
trough over the southern Appalachians on Thursday and Thursday
night, while the trough progresses to the coast. Modest upper
ridging will reach our area from the west on Friday. On Friday night
an upper trough will start to amplify from the Great Lakes to the TN
River Valley, while a ridge amplifies over the plains.

At the surface, on Thursday morning a surface trough is expected to
be along the eastern seaboard, with weak riding over the southern
Appalachians. Moisture will be greatest over the mountains, and on
the east side of the trough over the piedmont, while weak downslope
flow off the mountains limits moisture somewhat along the blue
ridge. This pattern persists into Friday night, while a cold front
approaches the mountains from the northwest. Instability and shear
will be present both days, but variations in both parameters limit
confidence on support for organized convection. Temperatures will
run four to eight degrees above normal, with heat indices
approaching advisory criteria in southern portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At 230 AM Wednesday: On Saturday an upper trough will amplify and
progress to the eastern seaboard, while a ridge does likewise over
the eastern plains. On Sunday the trough moves offshore, while the
ridge reaches the MS River Valley, and a weak upper low forms
somewhere around the western TN or western KY. This weak low
approaches the southern Appalachians on Monday, crossing the
mountains on Tuesday, while the upper ridge crosses the Great Lakes.

At the surface, a cold front will reach our area from the northwest
on Saturday, stalling over the area on Sunday. Moisture along this
weakening feature will support precipitation over our are into
Tuesday, ostensibly enhanced by the weak upper low crossing the
mountains. Modest instability and shear will persist over the area,
but variations in moisture profiles limit confidence in accessing
convective modes. Temperatures will fall from around seven degrees
above normal to around two degrees above normal, with less of a
chance of approaching heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT, isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are
developing west through north of the airfield early this afternoon.
Coverage may remain too sparse to truly warrant the current tempo,
but with cells bubbling in the area, will leave it as is (19Z-23Z)
for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected along with W/SW
winds at 5-10 kts should persist through the period. Chances for
diurnal convection will increase early tomorrow, as an upper air
disturbance approaches from the NW. Therefore, a prob30 is carried
from 15Z-18Z.

Elsewhere, the best chance for convection will be around KAND over
the first couple of hours of the forecast period, and a tempo will
be carried there during that time. For the time being, opted to
limit the convective mention to a VCTS at the other sites, but will
watch closely for the need for quick amendments. This will be most
likely at KGMU/KGSP. Coverage should diminish during the evening.
However, chances for diurnal convection will increase early tomorrow,
as an upper air disturbance approaches from the NW. Therefore, a
prob30 is carried from late morning on at most terminals.

Outlook: A mainly diurnal pattern of showers and thunderstorms will
continue the rest of the week into the weekend. Fog and low stratus
will be possible each morning in the mountain river valleys and also
in locations that receive heavy rainfall from diurnal thunderstorms.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-06

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1993     69 1967     70 1931     51 1933
                1953
   KCLT      99 1930     63 1892     78 1881     57 1964
                1881
   KGSP     100 1993     69 1892     76 2002     54 1892

RECORDS FOR 07-07

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      95 1993     62 1940     70 1948     50 1972
   KCLT     100 1993     65 1979     78 1881     55 1972
                1954
                1930
   KGSP     100 1993     66 1979     75 1977     58 1972
                1986                    1930        1892
                1888

RECORDS FOR 07-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1988     63 1909     69 1969     50 1972
   KCLT     101 2012     75 1950     81 1881     58 1892
                2010
   KGSP     101 1986     72 1896     76 2012     57 1913
                1888                    1931

RECORDS FOR 07-09

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1986     64 1979     71 1980     49 1896
   KCLT     101 1986     71 1908     78 1986     57 1891
   KGSP     100 1993     67 1979     78 1930     55 1896
                1986
                1977

RECORDS FOR 07-10

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      99 1936     69 1979     71 2011     49 1961
                            1948
   KCLT     101 1926     73 1892     77 1879     53 1961
   KGSP     100 2015     66 1909     75 2000     54 1891
                1885                    1998
                                        1957

RECORDS FOR 07-11

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      92 1993     70 1999     70 2011     49 1963
                1977                    1980
                1938
   KCLT     100 1986     75 1999     78 1992     55 1963
                            1898        1881        1961
   KGSP     100 1936     75 1999     75 1981     54 1891
                            1896

RECORDS FOR 07-12

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1980     62 1999     72 2011     50 1891
                1930
   KCLT     102 1930     64 1999     78 1879     59 1953
                                                    1898
   KGSP     102 1930     64 1999     80 1937     58 1891
                1888

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO/HG
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-
501>510-SCZ001-004-071815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-
YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
204 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ002-003-005>014-019-071815-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
204 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
..FRIDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
..SATURDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ070>072-082-071815-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
204 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
..FRIDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
..SATURDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ029-061730-
ELBERT GA-
103 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
ELBERT COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 102 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HARTWELL TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELBERTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... ELBERTON...NANCY HART STATE
PARK...MIDDLETON...BOBBY BROWN STATE PARK... RUSSELL STATE
PARK...LAKE STROM THURMOND...LAKE RUSSELL...RICE TOWN... SWEET CITY
AND FORTSONIA.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...TRY
TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY
FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN
INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED
ELECTRONIC DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORMS APPROACH.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8261 3397 8264 3399 8265 3398 8273
      3397 8278 3399 8283 3398 8286 3400 8288
      3401 8294 3403 8294 3405 8299 3408 8301
      3419 8276 3408 8264 3407 8265 3407 8263
      3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 321DEG 14KT 3414 8272 3404 8296

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ029-SCZ011-061800-
ELBERT GA-ABBEVILLE SC-
129 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
ELBERT AND SOUTHERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 129 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ABBEVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELBERTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... ABBEVILLE...ELBERTON...CALHOUN
FALLS...LAKE RUSSELL...NANCY HART STATE PARK...MIDDLETON...LAKE
STROM THURMOND...RICE TOWN...SWEET CITY AND FORTSONIA.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...TRY
TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY
FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN
INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED
ELECTRONIC DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORMS APPROACH.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8300 3427 8233 3416 8224 3413 8225
      3406 8246 3408 8248 3407 8253 3402 8259
      3398 8270 3398 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 262DEG 39KT 3413 8249 3400 8281

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

SCZ004-005-010-061815-
GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-ANDERSON SC-
145 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE...
SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS AND NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
EDT...

AT 145 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTH OF CLEMSON...OR NEAR LAKE HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDERSON...CLEMSON...POWDERSVILLE...PIEDMONT...WILLIAMSTON...NORTHLAK
E... PENDLETON...WEST PELZER...ANDERSON AIRPORT AND LAKE HARTWELL.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAKE HARTWELL IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 8303 3482 8248 3481 8248 3472 8247
      3471 8246 3471 8247 3468 8246 3466 8247
      3466 8246 3464 8245 3462 8245 3461 8244
      3457 8243 3444 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 253DEG 16KT 3455 8282

NED