High Wind Watch 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

076 
WWUS72 KGSP 230824
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...BRINGING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-231800-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.A.0001.160224T0300Z-160224T1800Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...LAKE JUNALUSKA...
HIGHLANDS
324 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

* TIMING...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS
  EVENING...POSSIBLY BECOMING DAMAGING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
  MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY THROUGH
  THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND 
  POWER LINES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS ON HIGHER MOUNTAIN 
  ROADWAYS AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS ARE CHANNELED BETWEEN 
  PASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$

NED

115 
WWUS72 KGSP 231744
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1244 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...BRINGING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-240145-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.A.0001.160224T0300Z-160224T1800Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...LAKE JUNALUSKA...
HIGHLANDS
1244 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

* TIMING...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS 
  EVENING...POSSIBLY BECOMING DAMAGING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY THROUGH 
  THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND 
  POWER LINES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS ON HIGHER MOUNTAIN 
  ROADWAYS AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS ARE CHANNELED BETWEEN 
  PASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$

490 
WWUS72 KGSP 231952
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA 
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... 
...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...

.A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-240400-
/O.UPG.KGSP.HW.A.0001.160224T0300Z-160224T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.160224T0300Z-160224T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.W.0001.160224T0300Z-160224T1800Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...
LAKE JUNALUSKA...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...
HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD
252 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING ABOVE 3500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY BELOW
3500 FEET HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND ADVISORY BELOW
3500 FEET IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ABOVE 3500 FEET.

* TIMING...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS 
  EVENING...POSSIBLY BECOMING DAMAGING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY THROUGH 
  THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND 
  POWER LINES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS ON HIGHER MOUNTAIN 
  ROADWAYS AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS ARE CHANNELED BETWEEN 
  PASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>050-053-065-240400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.160224T0300Z-160224T1800Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...MARS HILL...
MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH
252 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
  CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

* TIMING...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS
  EVENING...STRONGEST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
  SHIFT SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
  GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.
  TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS ON HIGHER MOUNTAIN ROADWAYS AND IN
  LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS ARE CHANNELED BETWEEN PASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-240400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.160224T1100Z-160225T0500Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
ROYSTON...LAVONIA...FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...HARTWELL...
REED CREEK...ELBERTON...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...
STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...NEWTON...
ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...TRINITY...
INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...LENOIR...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...
OLD FORT...MARION...LAKE LURE...FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...
SALUDA...COLUMBUS...WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...PUMPKINTOWN...
TIGERVILLE...GOWENSVILLE...CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...MARIETTA...
SENECA...EASLEY...CLEMSON...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...
SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...
ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...CLINTON...
UNION...CHESTER...GREAT FALLS
252 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
  AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

* HAZARDS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

* TIMING...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY STARTING AROUND
  DAYBREAK...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.
  TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS ON HIGHER MOUNTAIN ROADWAYS AND IN
  LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS ARE CHANNELED BETWEEN PASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM TEXAS ALONG THE FRONT AND
THEN DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST CROSSING TENNESSEE EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  A COOL AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT...WITH LIFT BEING AIDED BY ENTRANCE REGION
JET DIVERGENCE. IN THE LOW LEVELS AND AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS STALLING OUT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
CAROLINAS...WITH SELY TO SWLY ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING ATOP THE
FRONTAL ZONE. A 1028 MB HIGH OVER SE CANADA WILL BE IN A POSITION
FOR CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING...DIABATICALLY ENHANCED BY PRECIP FROM
TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS
OF 1 TO 1.25" AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR EMBEDDED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. POPS RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL THIS EVENING THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
UPGLIDE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
MOVEMENT TO LIMIT ANY FLOOD THREAT FOR NOW. WITH THAT SAID...CANNOT
RULE OUT TRAINING OF CELLS THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...IT LOOKS LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...AS LAPS CAPE IS
UP TO 700 J/KG IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND NORTHERN
UPSTATE...WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AROUND 8500 FT MSL. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED TO RAMP UP FROM 35 KTS TO 50 KTS BY 00Z.
WIDESPREAD QPF OF 0.75 TO 1.25" THRU MIDDAY TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED...WITH SWLY UPSLOPE AREAS RECEIVING EVEN MORE. THESE VALUES
ARE UNDER FFG...SO NO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIP...AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS
TO THE EAST AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SW. COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL PERSIST WITH A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN DREARY UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON WED. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST VERY
CLOSELY AS THE TIMING OF THE THREAT COMES BETTER INTO FOCUS.

THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD W
TX. THE NUMERICAL MODELS FEATURE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF OVER E TX LATE TUE AND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL GET REINFORCED BY THE IMPROVING PRECIPITATION
RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASE. THE UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH LATER
TUE NIGHT AS A JETLET STRETCHED OVER THE GULF COAST PUSHES IMPROVING
UPPER DIVERGENCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BLOSSOMING HEAVY RAIN
AND RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE 50 TO
60 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL WARRANT POSTING A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING UNTIL THE JET MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN
ADDITION...ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM MON/TUE WILL LIKELY PRIME THE
MOUNTAINS FOR POSSIBLE HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH HEAVIER RAIN STARTING UP
AGAIN TUE NIGHT. A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NEEDED...BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

THE INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL QUICKLY BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN AROUND
DAYBREAK WED. DEEP LAYER QG FORCING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW AROUND
DAYBREAK AND COMPLEMENT THE ENHANCED UPPER JET DIVERGENCE THAT WILL
MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION THROUGH 18Z. AS THE 500 MB LOW CENTER LIFTS
NORTHWARD WEST OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN...A BACKED 50 TO 60 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE BOUNDARY IN PLACE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WILL CONTINUE A STEADY NORTHWARD RETREAT THROUGH THE DAY...
UNCOVERING INSTABILITY THAT WILL SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
I-85...AND POSSIBLY UP THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP IN THE UNCOVERED
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE RETREATED WEDGE FRONT EARLY IN THE
EVENT AS 0 TO 3 KM SHEAR VALUES REACH 75+ KT. A SOLID LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL THEN BE LIKELY AS THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE
VALUES SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG OR GREATER ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 BY
MID AFTERNOON. EHI VALUES SHOULD RUN AROUND 1 TO 2 WITH SPOTTY 3+
NEAR CLT BY 18Z WED. ALSO...A POCKET OF 6.5 TO 7 DEG C/KM LAPSE
RATES WILL CROSS THE REGION COINCIDENT WITH SUPERCELL COMPOSITE
PARAMETER VALUES BUBBLING INTO THE 5 TO 10 RANGE BRIEFLY. THIS WILL
FURTHER COMBINE WITH LOW LCLS WITHIN 2000 FEET OF THE SURFACE AND 0
TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RETREATING
WEDGE FRONT...TO PRODUCE A HEIGHTENED RISK OF TORNADOES. THIS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE OUTLOOK.

COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS QUICKLY BEHIND THE
LATE AFTERNOON FROPA WILL ALLOW A HIGH MOUNTAIN MIX OVER TO SNOW WED
NIGHT. A LOBE OF CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...TO KEEP MOUNTAIN SNOW POPS
GOING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME NEAR ADVISORY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE ACHIEVED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM MONDAY...ON FRIDAY EVENING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FORM THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST
STATES. THE PATTER DEAMPLIFIES SUCH THAT BY SUNDAY ZONAL FLOW EXTEND
ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT BY MONDAY REAMPLFICATION TAKES PLACE...WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND RIDING OVER THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ENDING THE SNOW EVENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE OH
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHERE IT MEANDERS THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE
WEST...PRECEDED BY GULF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT BELOW NORMAL...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES
AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS FILLED BACK IN...AND EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SE
WINDS...AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS SAGGING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. STILL EXPECT WINDS
TO FAVOR AN ENE DIRECTION. PRECIP SHOULD START TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SW...AND FROM THERE MOISTEN LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE
LOWERING STRATUS TO IFR BY EARLY EVENING. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING WINDS OUT OF THE NE AND KEEPING LOW
STRATUS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN PERIOD FOR RA/SHRA WILL BE THRU
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...THEN TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING/MOVING IN
FROM THE SW THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT TO VFR AT MOST SITES...BUT MVFR STRATOCUMULUS ALREADY
FILLING BACK IN AS SELY UPGLIDE FLOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS SHOULD TURN
OUT OF THE NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT....AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN OVERSPREADS FROM
THE S. EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE TO KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE SE.

OUTLOOK...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY....THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED STARTING THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  87%     MED   72%     MED   71%     HIGH  84%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   73%     MED   73%     HIGH  82%
KAVL       MED   76%     MED   77%     MED   68%     MED   77%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     MED   66%     MED   74%     MED   73%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     MED   77%     MED   72%     MED   77%
KAND       HIGH  86%     MED   74%     MED   65%     MED   76%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-231515-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1009 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...AS
WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-231515-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1009 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.  ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.