Frost Advisory 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Rabun County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, York County, SC

269 
WWUS72 KGSP 060220
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

.FROST IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND PART OF NORTHERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. SENSITIVE
PLANTS COULD BE DAMAGED.

GAZ010-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ007>009-061300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.161106T0500Z-161106T1300Z/
RABUN-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...BETHLEHEM...
ELLENDALE...MILLERSVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...HIDDENITE...
STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...FARMINGTON...
FORK CHURCH...MOCKSVILLE...ADVANCE...FAUST...MARS HILL...
MARSHALL...WALNUT...ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK...SWISS...
BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK...
SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ALARKA...ALMOND...BRYSON CITY...LUADA...
WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO...COVE CREEK...
ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...
ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS...WOLF MOUNTAIN...
CASHIERS...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN...LITTLE RIVER...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...
ETOWAH...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...CROUSE...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...TRINITY...
INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...LENOIR...
SAWMILLS...GRANITE FALLS...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...
PLEASANT GROVE...VALDESE...ASHFORD...SUGAR HILL...WOODLAWN...
OLD FORT...MARION...NEBO...DYSARTSVILLE...FERO...GLENWOOD...
FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...SPINDALE...SALUDA...TRYON...
COLUMBUS...MILL SPRING...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...CATAWBA...
ROCK HILL
1020 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS COULD BE DAMAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

CDG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, dry Canadian high pressure will build into the area over the
weekend and persist through much of next week. Temperatures will
remain slightly above normal, with little to no rain chances through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At 2 PM Saturday: An upper trough will be over the Western Atlantic
this evening, while and upper trough will be over the MS River
Valley. By Sunday evening the pattern amplifies as the ridge
progresses to the Great Lakes and Southern Appalachians, while the
trough downstream progresses little.

At the surface, dry conditions will linger over our area through
Sunday, as a surface ridge moves from the Ohio River Valley to New
York and Southern Quebec. Winds will be rather light as the
tightest pressure gradient remains off the coast. With decreasing
moisture and no instability, convection and precipitation are not
expected. Even cloud cover appears to be limited. Frost is possible
in many areas of NC, and a few in SC.

Minimum temperatures tonight will run slightly below normal, possibly
favoring frost formation where dew point depressions are low enough,
mainly in NC. High temperatures on Sunday will run around six
degrees or so above normal as heights rise aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 pm EDT Saturday: An amplified eastern CONUS ridge will set
up atop the forecast area on Monday. Surface high pressure will
remain draped east of the Appalachians from NY to GA. Decent
insolation and moderating thicknesses will lead to well above climo
maximum temperatures, but morning mins will remain chilly. Patchy to
areas of frost will be possible once again in the NC mountains and
the HWO mention will be maintined.

The upper ridge axis will gradually deamplify as it moves to the
eastern seaboard on Tuesday and heights fall from the Midwest.
Surface high pressure will remain centered over the southeast with
dry profiles in place along with light winds, but high level clouds
will gradually increase from the west. Morning frost potential thus
looks a bit more limited and maxes should be a bit below Monday
values, but still above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM, the guidance is in good agreement on a pattern change
to an eastern CONUS trough regime for the medium range. However,
forecast confidence remains low since they show no run to run
consistency with the details or each other. They do agree on a weak
short wave moving through for the Wednesday time frame, then a
stronger short wave for Saturday deepening the trough and closing
off an upper low over New England or Quebec. A weak cold front
crosses the area Wednesday. Given the continued westerly low level
flow, precip chances should remain low, so kept forecast dry for now
with the continued uncertainty. Dry high pressure returns Thursday,
then a cold front moves through late on Friday. The GFS is stronger
and farther south with the associated short wave and has some precip
with the front, but the ECMWF is weaker and dry. They both have a
dry westerly low level flow. Again, given the continued uncertainty,
have kept the forecast dry for now. Temps a little above normal
Wednesday through Friday, fall dramatically on Saturday behind the
cold front. Still, highs Saturday will only be around 5 degrees
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR ceiling and visibility expected
east of the mountains, but guidance suggests IFR vsby at KAVL around
dawn. If relative humidity remains limited at KAVL, this may be
overdone. Light northeast winds will prevail this afternoon, except
at KAVL where north winds will prevail. Winds east of the mountains
may veer to the east this evening, then will favor the north late
tonight and early Sunday. Patchy to areas of frost will be possible
near KAVL early this morning and again late tonight.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will linger through at least Tuesday.
Chances for restrictions are low.  However, there will be frost
potential in the mtn valleys which could affect KAVL on Sunday
morning.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       Low   55%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Low   55%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Low   55%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       Low   55%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Low   55%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Low   55%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT to 8 AM EST Sunday for GAZ010.
NC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT to 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT to 8 AM EST Sunday for SCZ007>009.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
911 AM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>506-061315-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
911 AM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE LIKELY. AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH
SCATTERED FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
..MONDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. PATCHY FROST OR AREAS OF FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-507>510-061315-
RABUN-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
911 AM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR RABUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AROUND DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-061315-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
911 AM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.