Frost Advisory 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

497 
WWUS72 KGSP 050218
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

...FROST ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...

.AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BETWEEN 33 AND 36 DEGREES IN THESE AREAS.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>506-051300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0008.161105T0600Z-161105T1300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...
FAUST...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT...ALLENSTAND...
HOT SPRINGS...LUCK...SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...
RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK...SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ALARKA...ALMOND...
BRYSON CITY...LUADA...WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...WATERVILLE...
CANTON...CRUSO...COVE CREEK...ASHEVILLE...ROBBINSVILLE...
STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...
RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS...WOLF MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...
BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN...LITTLE RIVER...HENDERSONVILLE...
FLETCHER...DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...PATTERSON...
KINGS CREEK...LENOIR...SAWMILLS...GRANITE FALLS...JONAS RIDGE...
MORGANTON...PLEASANT GROVE...VALDESE...ASHFORD...SUGAR HILL...
WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...MARION...NEBO...DYSARTSVILLE...FERO...
GLENWOOD
1018 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS BETWEEN 33 AND 36.

* WINDS...NORTH 4 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE COULD OCCUR TO TENDER VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

CDG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
116 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A mostly dry cold front will cross the area this morning. Dry
Canadian high pressure will build into the area over the weekend and
persist through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC Update: Winds were updated with a blend of the latest
NAM and ADJMAV. Sky cover was updated from visible satellite imagery.

As of 625 AM: TCLT continued to detect a few light showers across
the Rowan and Cabarrus Counties. These showers should weaken and
push east of the CWA by sunrise. I will adjust PoPs to account for
shower timing across the NC Piedmont, and reduce mention across the
TN border counties. Otherwise, temperatures have been running a
little warmer than expected. Morning temperatures will be adjusted
warmer to align with observations, I will warm afternoon highs a
degree or two.

As of 325 AM: The latest collective of sfc observations indicated NW
winds were generally along and north of I-85, close to the position
of a weak cold front. Recent radar composite continued to show light
rain showers across the central and northern mountains, with a few
light showers to sprinkles east of I-77. IR satellite images
indicated a clearing trend within the lee of the mtns, with lower
clouds remaining along the upslope areas near the TN line. Showers
may linger over the TN border counties into the pre dawn hours, but
should dissipate before sunrise. After sunrise, dry high pressure
will build over the western Carolinas and NE GA. Forecast soundings
and statistical guidance that sky conditions will be sunny for most of
the day. The depth of the mixed layer should increase to 4-5 kft by
the heat of the afternoon. Momentum transfer should support gusts
around 20 mph through much of the daylight hours, wind direction
from the NNE. CAA should be limited by nearly full sun and periods
of downslope llvl winds. Using a blend of guidance, I will forecast
high temperatures from the mid 60s within the mtn valleys to the low
to mid 70s across the upstate and upper Savannah River Valley. RH
values are forecast to dip into the 30s this afternoon.

Tonight, the center of sfc high pressure will likely settle over the
Ohio River to mid Mississippi River valleys. This air mass will
provide clear and calm conditions across the region. A prime
radiational cooling environment should support low temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s across the mtns and NC foothills, with mid 40s
across the Piedmont. Based on the overlap of frost supporting temps,
light to calm winds, and decent RH recovery, I will indicate patchy
frost within the mtns valleys tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday, although the long wave trough will progress off
the East Coast through the period, upper heights will remain
considerably lower than what we've seen over the past week. Max
temps will actually be near to "only" slightly above climo through
the weekend. Meanwhile, seasonably dry air and light winds will
result in favorable radiational cooling conditions Sat and Sunday
night, creating concern for a potential frost/freeze event (esp Sat
night) over the mtn valleys, and perhaps even across sheltered
portions of the NC foothills and northern Piedmont. This is already
being mentioned in the HWO for Sat night, and see no reason to go
above and beyond that at this point. Otherwise, other than perhaps
some cirrus late Saturday into portions of Sunday, the forecast area
should be cloud-free through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 AM Friday, another pattern change is expected for the
medium range, with upper ridging returning to the East Coast by
early next week. Heights are not expected to be as high as was seen
with the past week's ridge, so while temps are expected to be above
climo through much of the week, they won't be outrageously so (5
degrees as opposed to 15 degrees above normal). The bad news is this
will ensure continuance of dry weather through at least the middle
of next week. The latest GFS continues to offer some hope for
precipitation next week, perhaps as early as the very end of the
forecast cycle, as deep Gulf moisture is depicted surging into the
Southeast in advance of an organizing storm system across the lower
Miss Valley. However, the 4th/00Z ECMWF remains quite weak and
non-progressive with the pattern across the southern Conus, and
keeps the forecast area pretty much bone dry through Day 10 (which
it has been very consistent in doing). In light of this, see no
incentive to introduce pops to the forecast at any point next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR visibility and sky, except at KAVL in the
morning where guidance supports IFR vsby in fog, which could be
accompanied by low cigs as well. Gusty northeast winds will prevail
this early this afternoon, except at KAVL where NW winds prevail.
Winds decrease this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes this
evening and winds diminish. Winds remain light Saturday from the
northeast Saturday morning.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will linger through at least Tuesday.
Chances for restrictions are low.  However, there will be frost
potential in the mtn valleys which could affect KAVL on Sunday
mornings.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Low   55%     Low   56%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Low   55%     Low   56%
KAVL       High 100%     Low   55%     Low   55%     Low   56%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Low   55%     Low   56%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Low   55%     Low   56%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     Low   55%     Low   56%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mixing heights were lowered by around 400 feet today based on model
soundings. Smoke management parameters were adjusted accordingly.

Relative humidity in the upper 20s and lower 30s is expected this
afternoon, with 25-30 percent RH expected Saturday afternoon. Winds
will be rather gusty around midday today, but will decrease in the
afternoon, with only a limited chance of overlap between the lowest
RH and highest winds. Winds on Saturday are expected to be very
light. Given the critical fuel moisture conditions, a Fire Danger
Statement remains in effect today for NE GA.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-051430-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
1025 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FROST AND ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FROST WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-
051430-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1025 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-051430-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
1025 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG