Alert archive / North Carolina / Frost Advisories in 2016
Frost Advisory 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this frost advisory at Oct 22, 2016, 4:34 AM EDT for 17 counties in North Carolina; Rabun County, Georgia. It took effect at Oct 23, 2016, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 22, 2016, 4:34 AM EDT (08:34 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 23, 2016, 12:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 23, 2016, 9:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Counties Rabun County, GA, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 250 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1522 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -89 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 62 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
817 WWUS72 KGSP 220834 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 434 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES AND ADJACENT NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS MORNING... .IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-221645- /O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.161023T0400Z-161023T1300Z/ /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-161022T1600Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND... SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER... DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD... WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...SALUDA 434 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS... EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. * HAZARDS...TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING. PATCHY FROST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * TIMING...VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING. FROST WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH UNTIL NOON TODAY. * TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. TREE LIMBS COULD BE BLOWN DOWN AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT. OUTSIDE PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP. && $$ GAZ010-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-221645- /O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.161023T0400Z-161023T1300Z/ RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN... MOUNTAIN CITY...FAUST...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT... ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK...ALARKA...ALMOND...BRYSON CITY... LUADA...WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO... COVE CREEK...ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS... WOLF MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN... LITTLE RIVER 434 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND RABUN COUNTY GEORGIA * TEMPERATURES...LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. OUTSIDE PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ JPT
4 follow-up statements
608 WWUS72 KGSP 221613 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1213 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES AND ADJACENT NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS MORNING... .HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-230015- /O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-161022T1600Z/ /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.161023T0400Z-161023T1300Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND... SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER... DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD... WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...SALUDA 1213 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * LOCATIONS... EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE TONIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...OUTSIDE PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ GAZ010-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-230015- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.161023T0400Z-161023T1300Z/ RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN... MOUNTAIN CITY...FAUST...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT... ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK...ALARKA...ALMOND...BRYSON CITY... LUADA...WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO... COVE CREEK...ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS... WOLF MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN... LITTLE RIVER 1213 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND RABUN COUNTY GEORGIA * TEMPERATURES...LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. OUTSIDE PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ NED
742 WWUS72 KGSP 221845 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 245 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT... .HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-230500- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.161023T0400Z-161023T1300Z/ RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN... MOUNTAIN CITY...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...FAUST... MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT...ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK... SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ALARKA...ALMOND...BRYSON CITY...LUADA... WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO...COVE CREEK... ASHEVILLE...ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS... WOLF MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN... LITTLE RIVER...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...DANA... EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD... WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...SALUDA 245 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING RABUN COUNTY GEORGIA. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH...LIGHTER IN THE VALLEYS. * TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...OUTSIDE PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ NED
510 WWUS72 KGSP 230232 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1032 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT... .HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-231045- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.161023T0400Z-161023T1300Z/ RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN... MOUNTAIN CITY...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...FAUST... MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT...ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK... SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ALARKA...ALMOND...BRYSON CITY...LUADA... WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO...COVE CREEK... ASHEVILLE...ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS... WOLF MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN... LITTLE RIVER...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...DANA... EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD... WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...SALUDA 1032 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS... INCLUDING RABUN COUNTY GEORGIA. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE VALLEYS. * TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...OUTSIDE PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$
197 WWUS72 KGSP 230923 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 523 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING... .HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-231300- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-161023T1300Z/ RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN... MOUNTAIN CITY...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...FAUST... MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT...ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK... SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ALARKA...ALMOND...BRYSON CITY...LUADA... WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO...COVE CREEK... ASHEVILLE...ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS... WOLF MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN... LITTLE RIVER...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...DANA... EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD... WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...SALUDA 523 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS... INCLUDING RABUN COUNTY GEORGIA. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. * IMPACTS...PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ JPT
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this frost advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this frost advisory went out at Oct 22, 3:22 AM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 22, 3:22 AM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
322 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will control our weather through the weekend. A dry
cold front will move through on Monday that will reinforce high
pressure through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 am Saturday: temps have been cooling steadily over the
past few hours under mostly clear skies and min values still appear
on track later this morning. We should see values below freezing
over the higher NC peaks, however any widespread frost potential
should be minimal when considering the brisk winds. Over the past
few hours we've seen wind gusts around 40kts over our northern NC mts
and just north of there, so the current wind advisory looks good
thru 16z today. Daytime mixing should support continued gusty winds
this afternoon and into the early evening with values dropping off
after the sun sets and the synoptic scale pressure gradient weakens.
High temps will be the coolest we've seen them for some time, with
values in the low to mid 60s over the lower elevations and upper 40s
to low 50s over the mts. Values will fall again early Sunday into the
30s across the mtns with upper 30s to lower 40s over most of the lower
elevations. With winds decoupling overnight, there appears to be good
potential for widespread frost over much of the higher terrain Sunday
morning. There could also be some spotty frost over the foothills and
piedmont if temps get cold enough. Otherwise, we can expect mostly
clear skies and dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...the weather looks exceedingly quiet for the
first part of next week as we remain under a NW flow aloft. Sunday
looks like an awesome October day with near normal temps, light
wind, and bright sunshine. The only feature of interest will be the
passage of a reinforcing cold front on Monday. The front should move
through dry, but will allow for a brief warmup on Monday that should
see highs climbing back above normal in the afternoon. Temps will
fall off again Monday night but not to the point where frost/freeze
would be a concern.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Saturday...the middle part of the week looks like a
continuation of dry and fair weather courtesy of upper ridging and a
surface high moving past to the north. Things change toward the end
of the week as the models show the next system moving across the
Plains on Wednesday and then over the Gt Lakes/Midwest on Thursday.
The model trend is toward a more amplified solution with the upper
trof on Thursday, which allows for some tap of Gulf moisture ahead
of the cold front. The GFS wants to close off an upper low over the
Midwest on Thursday and then drop it southward through the end of
the period. This looks overdone similar to what that model was doing
for our current weather earlier this week. Think the ECMWF has the
better handle on keeping the upper trof progressive. Either way, the
trend is toward a better chance of precip Thursday and lingering
into Thursday evening, so precip chances were nudged upward a bit,
perhaps optimistically. Friday was kept dry. Temps were unchanged
for now.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected thru 6z TAF period
with only slight changes made to wind speed/direction at each site.
Still expecting NW winds to remain weaker overnight and into the
morning at KCLT, KGSP, KGMU, and KAND with gustier winds at KAVL and
KHKY. Speeds should increase again later in the morning as mixing
increases and mostly clear skies prevail. Speeds in the 10 to 12kt
range with gusts in the 20 to 25kt range are anticipated at each
site with slightly higher values likely again over KAVL. Winds
should decouple again by 00z or so with calmer conditions for the
remainder of the period. I expect mostly clear skies today, with the
exception of few to sct in the 4 to 6kft range over KAVL.
Outlook: Dry high pressure will continue to spread across the
southeast CONUS on Sunday with another reinforcing Canadian High
moving over the region on Tuesday.
Confidence Table...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ033-049-050-053-065-
501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPTHazardous weather outlook, Oct 21, 10:40 AM EDT, 17 hours 54 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1040 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-221445- MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON- TRANSYLVANIA- 1040 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY AT RIDGETOPS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. A FEW WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. AREAS OF FROST COULD DEVELOP BY SUNRISE. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504- 506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-221445- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL- DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS- UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL- GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS- GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 1040 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-221445- AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- 1040 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. A FEW GUSTS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. AREAS OF FROST COULD DEVELOP BY SUNRISE. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. NED
Nearby
Frost Advisories in North Carolina, 2016Frost Advisories in Georgia, 2016Every frost advisory in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.