Frost Advisory 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

472 
WWUS72 KGSP 290126
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
926 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...FROST LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

.COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR A WHILE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...PERMITTING AREAS OF FROST TO FORM.

NCZ051-058-059-062-063-290930-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0004.160329T0400Z-160329T1300Z/
SWAIN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...ROBBINSVILLE...
CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS
926 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SWAIN...GRAHAM...JACKSON...AND MACON COUNTIES IN 
  SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT IN THE SHELTERED
  MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...FROST FORMATION WILL THREATEN EXPOSED...SENSITIVE 
  VEGETATION OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

136 
WWUS72 KGSP 291008
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
608 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

...FROST LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

.COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING. CHILLY TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
WITHIN THE SHELTERED SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL SUPPORT
AREAS OF FROST TO FORM.

NCZ051-058-059-062-063-291300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-160329T1300Z/
SWAIN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...ROBBINSVILLE...
CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS
608 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...SWAIN...GRAHAM...JACKSON...AND MACON COUNTIES IN 
  SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. 

* WINDS...NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...FROST FORMATION WILL THREATEN EXPOSED...SENSITIVE 
  VEGETATION OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
133 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MOIST COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY HIGH BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE PASSING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OF
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALOFT...A DEAMPLIFYING EASTERN
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TODAY. HEIGHTS WILL
THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE
AXIS GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ON NW FLOW...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM PRODUCES SOME SPOTTY UPSLOPE QPF
WITH THIS FORCING...BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO
WARRANT ANY UPSLOPE POP. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME MEASURE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING FROST TO A MINIMUM FOR MOST AREAS. SHELTERED SW
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK OF FROST...AND A FROST
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED THERE AS WINDS FALL OFF TO 5 MPH OR LESS
LATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY PROFILES CONTINUING.
ANTICIPATE MAXES RUNNING AROUND CLIMO...WITH 50S/60S MOUNTAINS AND
65 TO 70 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. UNDER THE RIDGE...A COOL AND DRY AREA OF
HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL STAY WEST
OF THE AREA THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN. SO UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...ON THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FEATURE A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER BERMUDA AS A DEEP LONGWAVE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS SOUTH TO BAJA. A DEEP SFC LOW IS EXPECTED
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND MIDDLE KY/TN. DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
PATTERN WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SUPPORTING LOWER QPF THAN INDICATED IN THE GFS AND ECMWF. I
WILL FORECAST POPS FROM THE 90S ACROSS THE MTNS TO 60S EAST OF I-77
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTION MAY LIFT ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL WAVE. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TIMES THE FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL TIME POPS TO DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE LATE DAY
ARRIVAL OF H85 CAA...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID 70S EAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SOURCED FROM THE
ROCKIES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. TO THE
NORTH...A ARCTIC FRONT WILL REACH THE MID APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE SUNDAY. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EACH MORNING
WILL FEATURE FROST SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN NC
MTNS...WINDS WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR FROST. THEREFORE...NO MENTION
WILL BE MADE IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A FEW VFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS COULD PERSIST
IN THE WEAK POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WITH HEATING...BUT THESE
WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW END GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE NW FLOW GRADIENT...WITH SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT CHANNELING IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. ANTICIPATE WINDS TURNING
MORE NORTHERLY TO NE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING...BUT WITH 5 TO 10 KT OF FLOW HOLDING ON IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUE
THROUGH WED. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-290915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
512 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-290915-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
512 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WIND MAY ALLOW PRE DAWN TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL
INTO THE 30S. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST MAY DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...FROST POSSIBLE.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-049-050-290915-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
512 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.