Frost Advisory 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

073 
WWUS72 KGSP 222346
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
746 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA VALLEYS...

.CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID
COOLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. BEING SHELTERED FROM THE
WINDS...DEEPER VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FROST.

NCZ051-058-059-062-063-231000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0003.160323T0400Z-160323T1300Z/
SWAIN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...ROBBINSVILLE...
CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS
746 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE LITTLE TENNESSEE AND TUCKASEGEE RIVER VALLEYS 
  OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 34 TO 37 NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

583 
WWUS72 KGSP 230804
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

...CHILLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA VALLEYS...

.CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ALLOWING FOR RAPID COOLING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA VALLEYS. BEING SHELTERED FROM THE
WINDS...DEEPER VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FROST.

NCZ051-058-059-062-063-231300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-160323T1300Z/
SWAIN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...ROBBINSVILLE...
CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS
404 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE LITTLE TENNESSEE AND TUCKASEGEE RIVER VALLEYS 
  OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 32 TO 37.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM...SFC HIGH WILL CENTER OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC BY
THIS EVENING...REMAINING STRONG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD
TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE PERIOD.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BREEZY ACRS MOST OF THE CWFA. THIS
IN ADDITION TO INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT AS THEY DID MONDAY NIGHT. AROUND
40 IN MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...AND MID-30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE
VALLEYS COULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST. FROST LOOKS ESPECIALLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE LITTLE TENNESSEE AND TUCKASEGEE VALLEYS...WHERE
THE RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DEWPTS REBOUND MOST APPRECIABLY. THUS
I WILL POST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.

EXPECT NOTICEABLY WARMER MAX TEMPS TOMORROW...LOWER TO MID 70S IN
THE MTN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S PIEDMONT. DESPITE RETURN FLOW BRINGING
DEWPTS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY...FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO
BE ELEVATED BY THE WARM TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OPENS UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW WILL BUILD A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOW. THE WAVES ROTATE INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSING THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JETLET. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A BAND OF INSTABILITY AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET HELPS CREATE QUITE A BIT OF BULK
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. THEREFORE...WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION
LIKELY FIRING TO THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR QLCS
STORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR
THURSDAY EVENING. OF COURSE...THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND I-77
CORRIDOR EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE CLEAR
COMPLETELY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY FALL TO NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STARTING TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...IN THAT IT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS STARTS TO
DEVELOP ISENTROPIC LIFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES NOT
BECOME PRODUCTIVE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS
FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS STILL A DAY
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND HAS MOST OF SUNDAY
DRY. THE FCST REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE AND DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY EXPANDS IT
OUTWARD FROM THERE DURING THE DAY...PER THE WPC GUIDANCE. THE TRICKY
PART WILL BE THE TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAINLY IN DEFERENCE TO THE
MOSTLY DRY ECMWF. IF WE HAVE LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT BY AFTERNOON
E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME KIND OF WEAK IN-SITU
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE THAT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN FCST. THE MODELS EVENTUALLY COME MORE INTO LINE WITH DEVELOPING
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH NOW TO RAISE THE PRECIP PROB INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY MIDDAY. THE UPPER WAVE
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO FORCING
AND MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. SO...
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. DID NOT FOLLOW THE GFS WHICH WOULD KEEP A MOIST EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN
LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WERE KEPT NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN SW FLOW INTO THE REGION THRU
WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THRU THE PERIOD
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND THRU TONIGHT AND
PRODUCE GREATER DIURNAL GUST POTENTIAL WED. IN FACT NAM AND GFS
PROFILES HINT THAT LLWS CRITERIA MAY BE MET HERE AND THERE IN THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING HRS. HOWEVER I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION THIS IN TAFS ATTM...WILL ADVISE NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE FOR
00Z. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT BREEZE
AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESSES...SO FROST IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS OF A CONCERN OVERALL...THOUGH SOME FROST IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...AND
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A ROUND
OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND
DOMINATE THE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION...BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN THOSE TUESDAY. WITH EXTREMELY
DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS...THE FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT AND CAUSING RH TO REACH
CRITICALLY LOW VALUES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NC. THE RELATIVELY
TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE STILL INSUFFICIENT TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. IN
COORDINATION WITH STATE AND FEDERAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES...A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS BEING ISSUED FOR NC TO HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED
RISK. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL ACROSS OUR SC AND GA ZONES...AND
LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES THERE HAVE NOT REQUESTED STATEMENTS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...TONIGHT/S FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE-EVALUATE
THE SITUATION AND COULD POTENTIALLY ISSUE A STATEMENT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
934 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-231345-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
934 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...WILDFIRE DANGER POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-231345-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
934 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.