Alert archive / North Carolina / Frost Advisories in 2016

Frost Advisory 13, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

November 11, 2016Buncombe County, Henderson County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this frost advisory at Nov 11, 2016, 3:26 PM EST for Buncombe County, Henderson County, North Carolina. It took effect at Nov 12, 2016, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 11, 2016, 3:26 PM EST (20:26 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 12, 2016, 12:00 AM EST
Expired
Nov 12, 2016, 9:00 AM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Buncombe County, NC, Henderson County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2016-11-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2016-11-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -31 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3361 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
8 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

300 
WWUS72 KGSP 112026
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...FROST ADVISORY FOR THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY TONIGHT...
...FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...

.A LARGE AREA OF COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...SUPPORTING COLD MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

NCZ053-065-120430-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0013.161112T0500Z-161112T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.FZ.A.0008.161113T0500Z-161113T1300Z/
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...
DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH
326 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM EST SATURDAY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT AND AROUND 30
  SATURDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH OR
  LESS.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES
  AROUND 30 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT MAY DAMAGE OR KILL UNPROTECTED
  SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>003-
005>009-011>014-019-120430-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FZ.A.0008.161113T0500Z-161113T1300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...HOLLYWOOD...
BETHLEHEM...ELLENDALE...MILLERSVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...HIDDENITE...
STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...FARMINGTON...
FORK CHURCH...MOCKSVILLE...ADVANCE...HICKORY...NEWTON...
ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...
CROUSE...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...
TRINITY...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...
LENOIR...SAWMILLS...GRANITE FALLS...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...
PLEASANT GROVE...VALDESE...ASHFORD...SUGAR HILL...WOODLAWN...
OLD FORT...MARION...NEBO...DYSARTSVILLE...FERO...GLENWOOD...
FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...SPINDALE...SALUDA...TRYON...
COLUMBUS...MILL SPRING...MOUNTAIN REST...WALHALLA...PUMPKINTOWN...
TIGERVILLE...GOWENSVILLE...CLEVELAND...EASLEY...DACUSVILLE...
CLEMSON...GREENVILLE...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...FORK SHOALS...
SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...CATAWBA...
ROCK HILL...ABBEVILLE...CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...CLINTON...
UNION...MONARCH MILLS...CHESTER...CORNWELL...GREAT FALLS...
WARE SHOALS...NINETY SIX
326 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
  GEORGIA. ALSO THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND MOST OF UPSTATE
  SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING MAY KILL
  UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE VEGETATION SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

ARK
2 follow-up statements
850 
WWUS72 KGSP 120336
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...FROST ADVISORY FOR THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY TONIGHT...
...FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...

.A LARGE AREA OF COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...SUPPORTING COLD MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

NCZ053-065-121200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0013.161112T0500Z-161112T1400Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.A.0008.161113T0500Z-161113T1300Z/
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...
DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH
1036 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...BUNCOMBE AND HENDERSON COUNTIES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
  CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. 

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT. LOWS 25 TO 30 ON
  SATURDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
  WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT AND THEN FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT MAY DAMAGE OR KILL UNPROTECTED
  SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>003-
005>009-011>014-019-121200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.A.0008.161113T0500Z-161113T1300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...HOLLYWOOD...
BETHLEHEM...ELLENDALE...MILLERSVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...HIDDENITE...
STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...FARMINGTON...
FORK CHURCH...MOCKSVILLE...ADVANCE...HICKORY...NEWTON...
ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...
CROUSE...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...
TRINITY...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...
LENOIR...SAWMILLS...GRANITE FALLS...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...
PLEASANT GROVE...VALDESE...ASHFORD...SUGAR HILL...WOODLAWN...
OLD FORT...MARION...NEBO...DYSARTSVILLE...FERO...GLENWOOD...
FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...SPINDALE...SALUDA...TRYON...
COLUMBUS...MILL SPRING...MOUNTAIN REST...WALHALLA...PUMPKINTOWN...
TIGERVILLE...GOWENSVILLE...CLEVELAND...EASLEY...DACUSVILLE...
CLEMSON...GREENVILLE...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...FORK SHOALS...
SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...CATAWBA...
ROCK HILL...ABBEVILLE...CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...CLINTON...
UNION...MONARCH MILLS...CHESTER...CORNWELL...GREAT FALLS...
WARE SHOALS...NINETY SIX
1036 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ALSO THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND 
  MOST OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING MAY 
  KILL UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE VEGETATION SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS
544 
WWUS72 KGSP 120859
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

...FROST ADVISORY FOR THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY THIS MORNING... 
...FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...

.COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...SUPPORTING COLD MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZE IS EXPECTED.

GAZ010-017-SCZ001-002-005-011-019-121000-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FZ.A.0008.161113T0500Z-161113T1300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREATER PICKENS-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
359 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

...FREEZE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE FREEZE WATCH.

INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES NO LONGER EXPECTED...THE FREEZE WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NCZ053-065-121700-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-161112T1400Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.A.0008.161113T0500Z-161113T1300Z/
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...
DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH
359 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...BUNCOMBE AND HENDERSON COUNTIES IN THE CENTRAL 
  NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S THIS MORNING. LOWS AROUND 30
  SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD FROST THIS MORNING AND THEN FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY DAMAGE OR KILL UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE
  VEGETATION..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ003-006>009-012>014-
121700-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.A.0008.161113T0500Z-161113T1300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHLEHEM...ELLENDALE...MILLERSVILLE...
TAYLORSVILLE...HIDDENITE...STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...
MOORESVILLE...FARMINGTON...FORK CHURCH...MOCKSVILLE...ADVANCE...
HICKORY...NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...SHELBY...
KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...CROUSE...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...TRINITY...INDIAN TRAIL...
WEDDINGTON...PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...LENOIR...SAWMILLS...
GRANITE FALLS...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...PLEASANT GROVE...
VALDESE...ASHFORD...SUGAR HILL...WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...MARION...
NEBO...DYSARTSVILLE...FERO...GLENWOOD...FOREST CITY...
RUTHERFORDTON...SPINDALE...SALUDA...TRYON...COLUMBUS...
MILL SPRING...TIGERVILLE...GOWENSVILLE...CLEVELAND...GREENVILLE...
TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...FORK SHOALS...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...CATAWBA...ROCK HILL...LAURENS...CLINTON...
UNION...MONARCH MILLS...CHESTER...CORNWELL...GREAT FALLS
359 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE
  EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING MAY 
  KILL UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE VEGETATION SATURDAY NIGHT..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this frost advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this frost advisory went out at Nov 11, 3:08 PM EST, 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 11, 3:08 PM EST, 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
308 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will sweep through the region this evening with
cool and dry Canadian high pressure overspreading the area in the
front's wake. An upper level disturbance will move over the area
early next week bringing a slight chance for some light precipitation
over the North Carolina Mountains. A more pronounced cold front is
expected to move through the forecast area during the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST...it looks like it should be a nice afternoon...
if you want to be a raisin. Even drier air mixing down from the top
of the boundary layer will keep the RH well down into the teens
this afternoon to dessicate the already relatively dry air mass.
Areas of smoke from several wildfires remain over the western
Upstate, northeast GA, and the Srn mountains of NC. Conditions have
slowly improved with boundary layer mixing. High clouds will
continue to spread over the area through the rest of the afternoon,
especially the mountains. Temps will be adjusted based on
observations, with highest readings in downslope areas near the Blue
Ridge.

Over the next 24 hours, a short wave dropping down from the north
will gradually elongate and shear out across the Mid-Atlantic to TN
Valley regions. In spite of this feature being strung out aloft just
to our N, a surface cold front should manage to drop down from the
north and across the fcst area this evening. The passage of the
front will bring the dewpoint up a bit overnight allowing for some
moisture recovery. Wind should come back around to the N and NE with
some potential for gusts, but nothing that would warrant an
advisory. The wind should diminish enough by the early morning hours
to allow for some potential for frost, which looks best in the upper
Fr. Broad Valley. A Frost Advisory will be issued there. The frost
should be patchy enough to not issue one east of the Blue Ridge.

On Saturday, surface high pressure will bridge over the mtns and
ridge down from the N and NE. There could be some cloudiness banked
up against the Blue Ridge in the morning, but that should mix out
with heating. Cold advection in this pattern will result in high
temps on the order of 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today...which
will be something on the order of 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...The main forecast challenge in the short
term is a potential freeze Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Models are in good agreement that a positively tilted upper trough
will shear out and split off an orphaned closed low in the vicinity
of western TN. Under this trough, a large area of dry continental
high pressure will drift south across much of the Midwest to the
Mid-Atlantic. The high will be centered just north of the CWFA by
12z Sunday. With the upper jet expected to be shunted just south of
the area, I expect clear skies and with high pressure nearby, calm
to light winds. So excellent radiational cooling conditions with dry
air and a long night should allow temps to plummet into the 20s to
mid 30s across the entire CWFA, except for portions of the
Lakelands. Given the high confidence in these temps, we will issue a
Freeze Watch for the aforementioned areas. Note that the NC mountains
have had their growing season end over the last few nights, so will
not be included.

On Sunday, after a chilly start to the day, it will be interesting
to see if the closed upper low will interact with a stalled frontal
zone along the Gulf coast to bring some moisture up into the area.
This may increase clouds and put a damper on max temps. Still expect
a slight rebound from Saturday's readings, but still below normal.
As I am writing this, the 12Z ECMWF has just come in a little wetter
for Sunday, associated with the upper low. However, this was not
incorporated into the forecast. So I will keep PoPs to just slight
chance for now. If the models trend like the ECMWF, we may bump PoPs
up, and hopefully, get at least a tenth or two of an inch of rain.
If, for some reason, we do not get a freeze Saturday night, Sunday
night's temps will be warmer such that no frost/freeze products
should be needed.

By 12z Monday, the axis of the upper low will be just crossing the
CWFA and inducing weak cyclogenesis just off the Carolina coasts.
Any precip we might get, should be exiting to the east by late
morning, with skies clearing out and NW winds picking up slightly in
the high terrain. Max temps will be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Friday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Tuesday with a departing, closed upper low lifting NE of the
Carolinas and steep upper ridging amplifying over the Western CONUS.
As the ridge amplifies to our west, deep upper trofing will dig
down over the Eastern CONUS by midweek. As we move into Thursday,
the long range models have the trof lifting NE of the area as
the ridge spreads over the southeast. The ridge is expected to
remain over the region thru the end of the period with some
flattening expected on Friday.

At the sfc, some uncertainty remains early Tuesday wrt the development
of a sfc low coincident with the upper low. The models continue to
develop a weak system just to our east late Mon/early Tues and move
it up the Atlantic Seaboard over the next 24 to 48 hrs. Weak high
pressure is expected to remain over the fcst area on Tues as the low
moves farther away. A dry cold front will move thru the CWFA on Wed
with stronger high pressure building in its wake. The high should
remain over the fcst area thru the end of the period on Friday with
dry conditions prevailing for the end of the work week. I kept a
slight chance POP over portions of the higher terrain for late Tues
thru Wed for the possibility of some NW flow precip. If any precip
is generated, it should be minimal. Otherwise, temps are expected
to remain about a category above climatology through the period with
little change from day to day.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Smoke continues to appear in observations
from KAVL southwest across the mountains, to the western Upstate.
MVFR/IFR vsby in smoke will linger into the evening at KAND. All
reported ceilings, though, are probably due to ceilometer issues
with sampling into the smoke layer. High clouds will spread in from
the west through the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Northwest
winds will continue across the NC mountains, with generally lighter
N to NNE winds across the foothills and Piedmont. Occasional low end
gusts will be possible with mixing and fropa today. Winds turn more
NE this evening as high pressure builds in, with low end gusts
possible as the atmosphere remains mixed. Vis is not expected to be
as much of a problem on Saturday morning.

Outlook: Dry and cooler high pressure will build over the region
through the rest of the weekend. Weak moisture return is possible
into Monday, but with limited confidence for precipitation or
restrictions.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  87%     High  83%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Danger Statement has been posted for NE GA, Upstate SC, and
the mountains/foothills of western NC based on collaboration with
land managers and neighboring forecast offices. For the Upstate,
the state Forestry Commission has already agreed to a Fire Danger
Statement for Saturday as well.

Colder and drier air will settle over the region thru the
weekend. Though the strongest winds associated with this airmass
have already passed, occasional gusts of 15-20 mph will occur across
the area through midday Saturday. RH values generally bottomed
out at 15 to 25 percent today, but with cooler temperatures,
min RHs are expected to be 5-10 percent higher Saturday.

Conditions should remain just below Red Flag Warning criteria, but
additional Fire Danger Statements could be issued in agreement
with fire agencies. Warmer temperatures Sunday as well as
drier conditions aloft could lead to even lower RH during the
afternoon. Winds will be much lighter by that time though.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
     for GAZ010-017.
     Fire Danger Statement until 8 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
     for NCZ035>037-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Fire Danger Statement until 8 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Saturday for
     NCZ053-065.
SC...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
     for SCZ001>003-005>009-011>014-019.
     Fire Danger Statement until 8 PM EST this evening for
     SCZ001>014-019.
     Fire Danger Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...Wimberley
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 11, 12:47 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1247 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062>064-121800-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
1247 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-NCZ053-065-501-503-505>507-509-SCZ001>003-121800-
RABUN-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1247 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE.
..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE LIKELY.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ502-504-508-510-121800-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
1247 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE.
..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE LIKELY.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-SCZ004>014-019-121800-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1247 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE LIKELY.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-121800-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
1247 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE.
..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE LIKELY.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 11, 11:10 AM EST, 4 hours 16 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>005-010-011-019-120000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...BALDWIN...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...
HOLLYWOOD...BOYDVILLE...TOCCOA...ROYSTON...WHITWORTH...LAVONIA...
FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...HARTWELL...NUBERG...REED CREEK...
ELBERTON...FORTSONIA...MIDDLETON...RUCKERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN REST...
WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...PUMPKINTOWN...TIGERVILLE...GOWENSVILLE...
CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...MARIETTA...SENECA...OAKWAY...EASLEY...
DACUSVILLE...CLEMSON...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...CALHOUN FALLS...
WARE SHOALS...NINETY SIX
1110 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...PATCHY DENSE SMOKE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

WILDFIRES BURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA ARE PRODUCING AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SMOKE MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

AREA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WILL WANT TO REMAIN INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE TO AVOID EXCESSIVE EXPOSURE TO THE SMOKE. THOSE
SUFFERING FROM BREATHING AILMENTS WILL ESPECIALLY WANT TO MAKE
SURE THAT WINDOWS ARE CLOSED AND AIR INTAKE SYSTEMS ARE SHUT DOWN.
IN ADDITION...MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ADVERSE DRIVING CONDITIONS.

JPT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 11, 3:26 PM ESTFreeze WatchGSPAlexander, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba and 12 more24 hr

Nearby

Frost Advisories in North Carolina, 2016Every frost advisory in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.