Frost Advisory 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Habersham County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
225 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of dry high pressure will build across the area on Thursday
into early Friday. A strong, but dry, cold front will sweep across
the region late Friday, bringing seasonable to below normal
temperatures to the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM, with the cold front well southeast of the fcst area,
gusty NW winds were allowing cooler air to move in over the NC mtns.
The downslope off the Blue Ridge was helping to keep some of the
temps elevated over upstate SC. High temps have been nudged upward
in that area. The few to sct stratocu across mainly the NC part of
the fcst area should mostly dissipate with sunset.

For tonight and Thursday, as an upper trof closes off a low off the
Mid-Atlantic coast and drifts away, we should maintain a N to NW
flow aloft with a short wave ridge moving overhead by the end of the
day on Thursday. This will support high pressure at the surface,
building in overnight, to the point where the pressure gradient
relaxes and wind becomes light enough to be worried about frost. The
latest guidance creeps the Min Temp down a bit more over the
mtns/foothills...such that the nrn mtns of NC and Graham/Macon NC
are substantially at or below freezing. Think it best to issue a
Freeze Warning for these zones. The rest of the mountain zones have
enough frost potential for an Advisory, including the northeast GA
and upstate SC mtn zones. Will carry the Frost Advisory out over the
NC Foothills based on some cold pockets near some of the more
populated areas. Temps should warm quickly on Thursday under bright
sun, reaching right around normal, or perhaps a few degrees warmer
than normal in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...A dry cold front will drop out of the
Great Lakes Thursday night and cross the forecast area Friday. This
front will bring a NWLY low-level jet across the central
Appalachians late Thursday night, peaking around 12-18z Friday, then
diminishing by early evening. Gusty winds approaching wind advisory
criteria will be possible across the northern NC Mountains. The rest
of the mountains will be breezy, but should remain under advisory
and red flag criteria. The front will have little moisture to work
with, with a slug of 850 mb RH behind the main CAA surge, hitting
the mountains around 21z Friday. So RH values are expected to drop
into the 20s to 30s in the mountains and possibly into the teens
across portions of the Piedmont Friday midday. This may result in
fire weather concerns (see Fire Wx section below). (The wind and
fire weather concerns will be highlighted in the HWO.) Temps start
out in the 30s to mid 40s, then warm into the 50s and 60s in the
high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s east of the mountains.

An expansive area of Canadian high pressure will begin to build in
behind the front Friday night thru Saturday. This will allow winds
to die down, but cold temps and low humidity will likely result in
frost and freeze concerns in the high terrain (assuming we haven't
turned off the counties for the fall frost/freeze program before
then). Under mostly clear skies, temps will drop into the low to mid
30s in the mountains, and upper 30s to mid 40s in the piedmont.
Highs Saturday will be on the chilly side, despite plenty of
sunshine, ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s in the mountains to
the mid 50s to lower 60s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2:15pm Wednesday:  With dry air in place, extended forecast
from Saturday night onward is fairly calm and dry with modest wind,
mostly clear skies, and some fluctuation in temperatures mostly at
and above seasonal normal.

With a cold front well to the south of the area by saturday night,
thickness declines to 549dam over the area with the coldest air mass
of the season so far on Sunday.  Low temperatures from upper 20s in
the mountains to the mid 30s in piedmont areas combined with light
to calm winds and mostly clear skies is expected to lead to frosty
or freezing conditions Sunday morning anywhere in the CWA.  Dewpoint
depressions are higher in the mountains, and the Sunday morning
freeze may not be accompanied by visible frost, but impacts to
plants will be the same.

Temperatures recover from the Sunday morning lows fairly quickly as
heights rise, and temperatures will be back above seasonal normals
Monday through Wednesday.

Some slight chance of rain creeps into the mountains and foothills
Tuesday-Wednesday next week as models show the passage of a weak,
though well-defined upper trough, with the EC model being a day behind the
GFS in timing.  Dewpoints will have seen only a slight improvement
by Tues-Wed., and rain of any significance is not anticipated at
this point.  Significant rain will have to wait until past the
extended forecast with the EC and GFS models both showing a possible
major system a week from Saturday, though with large disagreement in
details and a high uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere...VFR thru the period. KCLT will have a few
high-based stratocu thru sunset. The main problem will be the gusty
NW wind with frequent G21 or so. Winds will also be gusty at the
other TAF sites thru late afternoon. Sky should clear across most of
the region at sunset, with perhaps a few stratocu remaining on the
TN border thru the early morning hours. Smoke plumes may be a
problem once again, but confidence too low to include any
restrictions. Wind should become light NW by daybreak...and should
remain light NW thru end of period.

Outlook: Dry and cool high pressure will build over the region
through the end of the work week, reinforced by a dry cold front
early in the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  93%     High  96%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty northwest winds will gradually decrease this evening. A dry
air mass will build over the region Thursday into Friday. Afternoon
RH values will fall into the upper teens to upper 20s across much of
the region Thursday and Friday. Gusty northwest winds will ramp up
early Friday morning across the North Carolina mountains, peaking in
the 10 to 20 MPH range with gusts potentially 20 to 30 MPH,
especially in the Northern Mountains. These winds may overlap the
very low RH late Friday morning thru Friday afternoon. The
conditions should remain below Red Flag Warning criteria, but
enhanced fire danger headlines may be needed. Over the weekend,
winds should be light, but afternoon RH values will dip into the 30s
on Saturday and back into the 20s on Sunday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EST WED NOV 9 2016

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-101115-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
601 AM EST WED NOV 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION...A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY MORNING.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-101115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
601 AM EST WED NOV 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION...WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT
FREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.