Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

950 
WGUS62 KGSP 070222
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1022 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-070330-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160607T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ELBERT-UNION-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELBERTON...FORTSONIA...MIDDLETON...
RUCKERSVILLE...MONROE...TRINITY...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...
ABBEVILLE...CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION...
MONARCH MILLS...BLACKSTOCK...CHESTER...CORNWELL...GREAT FALLS...
WARE SHOALS...NINETY SIX
1022 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1111 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall out across the region today. Tropical Storm
Colin is expected to deepen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through
this evening, passing to our south early Tuesday. Dry high pressure
will then build in from the northwest for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1045 AM EDT, a frontal boundary remains stalled across the
forecast area late this morning with deeper moisture ahead of the
front over the midlands and the coastal plain. Instability is already
building over the lower piedmont - with LAPS SBCAPE values of 1500
to 2000 J/kg despite the morning cloudiness. Convection allowing
models show new development farther west into the lower piedmont and
also along the eastern Blue Ridge area. This should consolidate the
best afternoon and evening coverage in the piedmont as the foothills
activity slips east. PoPs have been raised accordinging based on CAM
trends.

Isolated severe thunderstorms might be possible given the moist
dewpoints, but localized flooding from any training thunderstorms in
the piedmont appears to be the main threat. Coverage of training
activity is not expected to be widespread enough at this time for a
Flash Flood Watch, but an HWO mention will continue.

The eventual track of T.S. Colin will need to be watched as the
latest trends have nudged slightly west. It still appears that the
deeper tropical moisture, and associated heavy rainfall, will impact
mainly locations from the Midlands to the coast through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...On Tuesday, the center of Tropical Storm Colin
is expected to track off the Carolina coast during the daylight
hours. As the low center moves to the northeast, circulation will
sweep the stalled the cold front east of the forecast area. Gusty
WNW winds will likely develop across the mtns and foothills, but
remain below levels for a lake headline. However, the downslope flow
will support high temperatures rising into the upper 80s. I will
forecast less than schc PoPs, supported by most of the short range
guidance. The NAM does indicate some convection developing over the
nrn NC mtns during the heat of the afternoon. This activity seems a
little overdone given the models handle of the strength of Colin.

Tuesday night, CAA should occur overnight, with H85 temps falling to
around 6C over the NC mtns. Using a blend of guidance, I will
forecast low temperatures to range from the mid 50s across the mtns
to the low 60s east of the mtns, or 3 to 5 degrees below normal. On
Wednesday, dry weather will continue as H5 heights begin to rise
across the region. High temperatures should range in the mid 70s
across the mtns to the low 80s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 am Monday...GFS and ECMWF indicate that the H5 ridge
associated with a Omega Block will slowly slide east through the
medium range. This pattern should provide dry conditions each day
through Sunday. Temperatures will likely modify each day, with good
insolation and rising LLVL thicknesses. The weekend looks hot and
dry as the ridge axis begins to slide over the southern
Appalachians. By Sunday, high temperatures should range from the
upper 80s within the mtn valleys to the mid 90s across the foothills
and Piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere, convective coverage remains minimal late this
morning with the activity suppressed mainly to the southeast in the
deeper moisture. The surface front will remain stalled along the
eastern mountains into this afternoon, with some destabilization to
continue through the early afternoon hours. The model guidance has a
good consensus that showers and storms will develop again this
afternoon given adequate instability, at least along/S of I-85. Will
include a TEMPO for the upstate TAFs and KCLT in the late
afternoon/early evening. The precip will gradually fade/move off to
the east after sunset. The next problem will be a ceiling
restriction moving up from the SE as more tropical moisture is
pushed inland in advance of the tropical system approaching the NE
Gulf Coast region tonight. Most of the guidance brings an IFR cloud
deck in from the east. Will include the IFR at KCLT from mid-evening
to the early morning hours.

Outlook...the front will push across the region on Tuesday. In the
wake of the cold front, a Canadian air mass will settle over the
area into next weekend, with VFR conditions expected for the
duration.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High  95%     High  85%     Med   74%     High  89%
KGSP       High 100%     High  83%     High  91%     High  98%
KAVL       High 100%     High  98%     High 100%     High  93%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  98%
KGMU       High 100%     High  81%     High  96%     High  98%
KAND       High  96%     High  90%     Med   72%     High  92%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1117 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-071530-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1117 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-071530-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1117 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY
AFFECTING THE SAME LOCATION MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING WILL BE FROM GREENWOOD TO CHESTER TO
MONROE AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

GAZ029-SCZ011-019-061930-
ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELBERTON...FORTSONIA...MIDDLETON...
RUCKERSVILLE...ABBEVILLE...CALHOUN FALLS...WARE SHOALS...
NINETY SIX
1241 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD THIS AFTERNOON...

A NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SET UP
FROM JUST SOUTH OF ELBERTON GEORGIA TO NEAR GREENWOOD SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS IN THIS BAND ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL
AT RATES OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. LOCAL
ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD RESULT. BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR HIGH WATER CONDITIONS IN LOW LYING AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS
FALLEN.

HG