Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

760 
WGUS72 KGSP 071859
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

NCC025-119-072045-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160807T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-CABARRUS NC-
259 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LEFT
OVER FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 1 PM. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE HARRISBURG...
PRIMARILY ALONG BACK CREEK...AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG CODDLE CREEK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...AND UNDERPASSES.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS...AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE REPORT FLOOD WATERS OR LANDSLIDES
FLOWING OVER ROADS OR THREATENING PROPERTY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...BY
POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR VIA TWITTER USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.
YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION
WHERE IT OCCURRED...INCLUDING ROADWAYS...NEARBY CROSS
STREETS...STREAM NAMES AND OTHER LANDMARKS.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8048 3519 8050 3521 8055 3516 8062
      3522 8070 3527 8074 3526 8078 3535 8080
      3539 8054

$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1055 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a weak cold front settling southward across the region today
to become nearly stationary over the southeast through much of the
week. Abundant moisture along with the stalled front will keep
higher than normal rain chances for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Sunday: Rain has been slow to develop across the
area this morning (guess we didn't need to start the FFA at 12z
after all) but all guidance indicates that once it starts, it won't
stop for a while. Have updated pop trends and ended up increasing
overall pops for this afternoon. Will refresh the FFA wording but no
other changes at this time.

Otherwise, the convection-allowing models start to develop robust
shower and thunderstorm coverage over the high terrain and also the
lower piedmont around Noon or shortly thereafter. This timing
appears reasonable as light 850 mb flow starts to toggle more
southeasterly to southerly at that time - with upslope flow
improving late today into tonight. Precipitable water values on
recent regional raobs are already nearly two inches and this high
moisture content will persist over the area. Heavy rain will thus
remain the primary threat given the PWAT values, weak steering flow,
and warm cloud layers deeper than 12 kft. In addition, pooling
boundary layer moisture should yield SBCAPE values of 2000 to 3000
J/kg+ during peak heating. However, mid level lapse rates should not
be especially impressive. No changes are planned to the existing
Flash Flood Watch at this point, but expect hydro problems to worsen
each day of the week. Temps will remain at or above climo despite
the increasing clouds today.

Otherwise, the better westerlies will remain north of the forecast
area through the near term period - with a weakness in the pattern
over the southern Appalachians that extends southward to the
stationary trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will keep
deep moisture and upslope flow solidly over the region through
tonight. Warm mins will be 5 to 10 degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
At 200 AM Sunday: On Monday morning an upper ridge will be over the
plains, while a trough will be off the northeast coast, and an upper
low will be over the northeast Gulf Coast. The models show the upper
ridge extending to the east coast by Tuesday night, when it links up
with a Caribbean high off the east coast. Meanwhile, the upper low
drifts west to the where the AL and FL coasts meat.

At the surface, a stalled front will over NC Monday morning, with
substantial moisture to its south. The models show a weak surface
ridge building southwest along the easter seaboard on Monday and
persisting into Tuesday night. Meanwhile, precipitable water
increases, while SW low level flow produces isentropic upglide over
the surface ridge, and upslope flow into the Blue Ridge. These
factors should support nearly continuous rainfall, at times heavy,
from Monday morning through Tuesday night, unless coastal convection
can limit the arrival of moisture. Coastal convection may
Temperatures will exhibit a reduced diurnal range due to cloud cover
and moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At 200 AM Sunday: On Wednesday morning an upper ridge will be along
the southeast coast, while an upper low will be near the Gulf Coast
near the FL and AL border. Although this low moves only very slowly
through Saturday, the models vary on its location by then, with the
ECMWF brining it toward NW GA, and the GFS toward SE LA. Meanwhile,
the upper ridge remains off the southeast coast.

At the surface, the models show a surface low over southern AL
Wednesday morning, with a surface ridge along the eastern seaboard.
The pressure gradient between these two features will allow for
substantial transport of Atlantic moisture toward the southern
Appalachians. Low level flow veers enough by Saturday that the chief
source of moisture would be from the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall totals
could be substantial if moisture is not limited by coastal
convection. Temperatures will continue to exhibit a reduced diurnal
range due to moisture and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT: Changes to the 15z AMD are limited to timing of SHRA/TSRA
this afternoon and evening. Delayed the TEMPO TSRA and dropped the
PROB30 (though TSRA may very well linger beyond the end of the
tempo), and started prevailing -SHRA earlier. Otherwise, shower
chances along the sagging frontal boundary appear rather small until
the afternoon, with the thunder potential ramping up after 18Z and
then showers becoming more widespread in southeast flow toward
evening. Will toggle light surface winds from SW to NE early but
then keep directions mainly ESE to SE the remainder of the period
the front in the vicinity.

Elsewhere: Shower coverage will be minimal along the weak frontal
zone sagging southward into the region until 16Z or later when a
light SE upslope flow will develop and strengthen. Will feature
PROBs for TSRA from middle to late afternoon - with showers becoming
more widespread through the evening hours. Daybreak IFR fog will
persist for an hour or two at KAVL, but restrictions look less
likely elsewhere. Light winds will settle out to mainly SE during
the course of the day with VFR cigs developing and lowering into
MVFR tonight.

Outlook: A frontal boundary will remain stalled near or just south
of the area into the early week. Deep moisture will persist along
with strengthening southeasterly upslope flow. Thunderstorms, heavy
rain, and IFR restrictions could become increasingly widespread
through the week.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High  85%     High 100%     High  98%     Low   51%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  98%     Low   51%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   76%     High  87%
KHKY       High  98%     High 100%     High  93%     Low   43%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     Low   54%
KAND       High  85%     High 100%     High 100%     Low   44%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for SCZ001>010.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ001>007-010-080745-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-
343 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-SCZ008-009-080745-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-CHEROKEE-YORK-
343 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-080745-
ELBERT-UNION-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
343 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ASSOCIATED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION TO
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

NCZ071-072-071800-
CABARRUS NC-MECKLENBURG NC-
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND CENTRAL CABARRUS COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 124 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN CONCORD...OR NEAR
HARRISBURG. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN CONCORD...EAST
CHARLOTTE...HARRISBURG...CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...REEDY CREEK
PARK...UNC-CHARLOTTE...WEST CONCORD...MINT HILL... HIDDEN VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST CHARLOTTE.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 8053 3521 8055 3517 8060 3520 8077
      3538 8077 3542 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 271DEG 3KT 3529 8069

ARK