Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
309 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and moist wedge of high pressure will develop over the area
this evening and linger into Friday. Another frontal boundary is
expected to enter the region over the weekend, keeping higher than
normal rainfall chances in the forecast through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM...Now that convection has fired, the trends are clear
that the heavy rain threat is worth a Flash Flood Watch for the
eastern half of the NC mountains and east to the I-77 corridor.
Convection remains shallow, with efficient rain rates and
slow/stationary storm motions. The 12z high-res windows now line up
with the last several runs of the HRRR in persistent rounds of
convection along the eastern slopes of the NC Blue Ridge. The NAM
and GFS hint at this as well. So the FFA will go out here shortly
and be in effect until 1200 UTC Thursday to encompass lingering
overnight convection. The midnight shift can evaluate whether this
will need to be extended and/or expanded into Thursday. Keep in mind
that areas outside the watch could see an isolated flood threat as
well, as any storms that develop can produce excessive rainfall.

Otherwise, it should be cloudy to mostly cloudy overnight with min
temps a category or two above normal.

Thursday, all the models are doing a good job initializing a strong
MCV over the mid Mississippi Valley, and have it drift slowly toward
the area during the day, with increasing Q-vector convergence over
the NC mountains by 00z Friday. At the surface, a weak wave is
expected to develop along a stalled frontal boundary near
Wilmington, NC, while a 1023 mb high sits along the east coast. This
will keep a wedge of high pressure along the east slopes of the
Appalachians nosing down from the NE. At 850 mb, the operational
models are in agreement on an increase in southeasterly flow early
in the morning, then remaining around 15-20 kts as it backs to more
east-southeasterly during the day. This will keep an upslope flow
thru the day and will likely keep an elevated heavy rain threat
across the watch area. For now, will have the watch end at 12z, but
it may need to be extended thru the day. Temps will be well below
normal across most of the area due to the persistent clouds and
precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday... The short term forecast period begins
Thursday evening with a broad 500 mb ridge centered over much of the
eastern CONUS and making its way offshore. Meanwhile, a closed upper
low is making its way across south central Canada. This low and its
parent trough will phase together while propagating eastward. This
should result in the lowering of heights across the Great Lakes and
northeastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains centered
off to our northeast but will quickly make its way off the coast
shortly after the beginning of the period. The aforementioned upper
low and trough and its associated surface low and cold front will
then begin making their way across the Great Lakes region. As it
does so, the dominant flow over the CWA will remain largely
southerly which will keep abundant moisture in place across the
region. The cold front should begin approaching the area by the end
of the weekend and beginning of next week.

Will expect to see scattered to numerous showers and storms both
Friday and Saturday, especially in the mountains. Went with lower
end likely pops over the mountains with high chance pops over the
foothills and piedmont regions during the day Friday. Pops for the
rest of the period were kept between high chance and high slight
chance range with a diurnal trend. Temps will remain within a few
degrees of climo with Friday being the coolest day for the period as
weak surface wedging from the exit surface high lingers along with
ample cloud cover from the abundant moisture. This should keep most
of the area roughly 5 degrees below normal. Temps should run just a
couple degrees higher than climo Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday: the medium range fcst picks up at 12Z on
Sunday with a broad upper trof sliding eastward over New England and
persistent upper ridging in place over the central CONUS. As we move
into early next week, the trof is expected to slowly lift NE while
the ridge spreads farther east and gradually builds towards the end
of the period. At the sfc, the moist pattern is expected to persist
well into the medium range. At the start of the period, a Canadian
high will slide SE and settle over the Great Lakes bringing drier
air to our north. Unfortunately, moist flow associated with the
Bermuda High will persist over the region. This setup will create
a region of persistent low lvl convergence over much of the Carolinas.
This convergence zone will likely weaken towards the end of the
period on Tues and Wed as the high begins to slide offshore and
the resulting flow takes on a more easterly component. As for the
sensible fcst, POPs will remain above climatology for most of the
period with the highest values generally over the escarpment and
ridge tops. Temps will start out just above normal for early August
and drop just below climo early next week as the high sets up to
our north.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT, The low stratus deck has been slowly lifting and breaking
into an MVFR stratocumulus deck during the early afternoon hours.
The CIGS are expected to eventually lift to VFR before the end of
the daylight, but then start lowering this evening back to IFR
overnight. Persistent easterly to southeasterly low-level flow will
keep showers and possibly a few tsra around this afternoon through
late evening. The highest coverage should be mostly west of KCLT
near the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and along the edge of the
stratus deck across the Upstate. For now, I will tempo TSRA from
22-02z, which I think is the timing of greatest chance near the
terminal. Winds will favor an east-northeast direction, but may
occasionally veer to east-southeast this afternoon.

Elsewhere, similar conditions to KCLT. SHRA chances are high at all
the sites thru the evening. Winds are quite variable across the
area, ranging from northeast to southeast. KAVL will see N wind,
then switching to southeast Thursday morning.

Outlook: Moisture will continue on easterly flow through late week
with associated showers and thunderstorms developing - especially in
the afternoon and evening. Restrictions will be possible with any
afternoon/evening convection as well as each morning in the mountain
valleys where fog and low stratus are likely, but will be possible
outside of the mountains as well.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       Med   74%     Med   72%     Med   65%     High  84%
KGSP       High  98%     High  89%     Med   70%     High  84%
KAVL       High  99%     Med   63%     Med   67%     High  91%
KHKY       Med   73%     Med   65%     Low   47%     High  80%
KGMU       High 100%     High  88%     Med   61%     High  87%
KAND       High 100%     High  99%     Med   74%     High  88%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NCZ033-035>037-
     049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ002-003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...Staarmann
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE STATESVILLE       35.81N 80.87W
08/03/2016  M5.55 INCH       IREDELL            NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

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