Small Craft Advisory 96, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

539 
WHUS73 KGRR 271206
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
706 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

LMZ844>849-272015-
/O.EXP.KGRR.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-161227T1200Z/
/O.CON.KGRR.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-161228T0900Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
706 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WINDS...WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 10 TO
  20 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND 3 TO 5 FEET AFTER DARK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OR WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

938 
WHUS73 KGRR 271455
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
955 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

LMZ844>849-272300-
/O.CON.KGRR.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-161228T0900Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
955 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 
  20 KNOTS THIS EVENING. 

* WAVES...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND 3 TO 5 FEET
  AFTER DARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OR WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

154 
WHUS73 KGRR 272003
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

LMZ844>849-272115-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SC.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-161228T0900Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
303 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2016

Fairly quiet winter weather is expected from today into Wednesday.
It will remain breezy today with westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph.
Some lake effect snow showers are possible this afternoon and
evening. Mainly dry weather is expected on Wednesday. On Thursday
colder air moving into the area will be responsible for providing a
boost in lake effect snow. We may see some light accumulations of
snow across Western Lower Michigan from Thursday into Thursday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2016

Overall limited concerns in the short term portion of the forecast
with lake effect snow being the main focus. We may see some light
accumulations both this afternoon/evening and again on Thursday.
Otherwise fairly quiet conditions.

Today, a shortwave upper trough will move through the Great Lakes
region with cold advection occurring this afternoon into the
evening. We should see a spike in lake effect snow this afternoon
and evening as it moves through and the cold air advection increases
delta T's over the lake. With a slight spike in the depth of the
deeper moisture to around 5000ft, could see some light accumulation
towards Lake Michigan on the order of a half inch or less.

Ridging moves in tonight with warm air advection overnight. We
should see a diminishing trend in the lake effect overnight. Light
snow showers should taper to flurries and then end late.

Dry weather should extend from late tonight into Wednesday, due to
limited low level moisture. Delta T's will have fallen off to below
10 degree C, so the lake will not provide a contribution either.

Wednesday night into Thursday a deep upper trough moves into the
Great Lakes area and deepens with time. Delta T's increase once
again into the upper teens with an increase in moisture. The lake
effect on Thursday and into Thursday evening looks decent as
moisture increases in depth toward 10,000ft. Plenty of lift looks to
be available extending into the DGZ. Think we are looking at some
accumulating snow in Western Lower Michigan Thursday into Thursday
night where at least a 1-3 inch snowfall appears possible.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2016

Will see lake effect snow as the long term begins. Northwest winds
over Lake Michigan will result in light precipitation Thursday night
into Friday. A clipper system will begin to impinge on the area
Friday night. At this time, it looks like this could slip by to the
north of Southwest Lower Michigan with the south possibly missing
out. Snow is possible, mostly north, Friday night into Saturday. We
get a break in the precipitation Saturday night into Sunday night.

Early next week a couple of low pressure systems move east and/or
northeast and are forecast to merge south of Michigan. Not a lot of
cold air with these storms, so this should lead to mostly rain early
with chances of snow by Tuesday. Not a lot of confidence with this
complicated setup for next week.

Temperatures over the long term periods will be a little above
normal. Normal highs are around 30 degrees with normal lows in the
upper teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1240 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2016

Winds out of the west of 15-20 knots with gusts of 20-30 knots
will diminish slowly into Tuesday. Winds should be under 15 knots
by 03z Tuesday night. These cold winds moving over the relatively
warmer waters of Lake Michigan will develop lake effect clouds with
some snow showers. Looking for MVFR ceilings through the forecast
with no IFR or lower expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2016

With gale conditions still occurring at 300am at the beach
observation sites have opted to extend the Gale Warning through
700am. BUFKIT wind overviews indicate that the strongest wind is on
the verge of tailing off, and expect sub Gale conditions to exist
area wide in the next few hours. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory
from 700am this morning through 400am tonight to account for the
slow decrease in wave heights as the wind subsides.

The respite in wind/waves looks small as southerly commence on
Wednesday which will likely produce SCA conditions. Strong west to
northwest flow is then expected on Thursday. Overall, a rough week
on Lake Michigan.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2016

A near total melt of the snowpack containing 0.5 to 1.5 inches of
water has occurred, in addition to a quarter inch of rainfall.
Rivers are rising in response, and should encroach into low lying
areas near river banks over the next few days at the following
forecast locations: Holt, Eagle, Maple Rapids, Ionia, and
Hastings. Significant and unusual flooding is not expected.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ844>849.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Duke
SHORT TERM...Duke
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...Duke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
625 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-270930-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
625 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.  GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE.  SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL EXIST ON THE RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-270930-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
625 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WESTERLY GALES TO 40 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY EXIST
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DUKE MJS