Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

888 
WHUS73 KGRR 300821
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

LMZ844>849-301630-
/O.CON.KGRR.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160131T0200Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
321 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 6 FEET DECREASING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OR WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

873 
WHUS73 KGRR 301516
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1016 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

LMZ844>849-302330-
/O.CON.KGRR.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160131T0200Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1016 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 6 FEET DECREASING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OR WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

044 
WHUS73 KGRR 302009
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
309 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

LMZ844>849-310200-
/O.CON.KGRR.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160131T0200Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
309 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET DECREASING TO 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OR WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND BRING THE AREA A
CHANCE FOR A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT AND MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS A BIT OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A BIT SLOPPY AS WE WILL SEE MELTING SNOW ON SATURDAY AND RAIN ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 40 ON SATURDAY AND PUSH INTO THE 40S ON
SUNDAY. A STORM NEXT WEEK MAY BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

FAIRLY LIMITED CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SYSTEM
FOR TONIGHT WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE MISSING US TO THE NORTH. CAN SEE A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI TONIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF
IT OCCURS AT ALL. SATURDAY WHAT LITTLE PRECIPITATION THERE IS PASSES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIGHT RAIN LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOTAL AROUND A
TENTH TO POSSIBLY TWO. COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BIT OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING.

OVERALL...A QUIET SHORT TERM AS COMPARED TO THE LONG TERM. MAIN
POINTS BEING...MILDER AIR MOVING IN WITH SOME RAIN FOR SUNDAY.
SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS RESULTING FROM A WINTERY MIX OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MANY FORECAST SPECIFICS
IT IS NOTED THAT OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24
HRS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW MAY TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SE THAN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SUGGESTED YESTERDAY.

THIS TREND SUGGESTS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND COLD AIRMASS TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA. AT THIS TIME A WINTERY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS MOST
PROBABLE NEAR TO PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-96 TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME SOUTH OF I-96 TUESDAY IS THAT A WINTERY MIX
OF PCPN WOULD MOST LIKELY TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN LATER IN THE DAY
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE. THIS IS ALL CONTINGENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS THE ORIENTATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BY THEN.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -14 C BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND TO AROUND -15 TO -16 C BY THURSDAY MORNING.

ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY BY THEN AND WE RAISED POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PARTICULARLY NEAR TO WEST OF US-131.
THE LES IN CONJUNCTION WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KTS FROM
MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONSIDERED GOING WITH GALES FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF...BUT THE
WINDS SHOULD END UP JUST UNDER GALES...AROUND 30 KNOTS AT THE
LAKESHORE OB SITES. IT WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH. WAVES SHOULD REACH THE
4 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

THE GRADIENT GOES A BIT BAGGY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY MINOR
FLOODING IN LOWLAND AREAS. RIVER LEVEL RISES ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO SNOW MELT. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 40S.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF 1.00
INCH NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
IS POSSIBLE. THIS STORM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY FREEZE UP SOME OF THE RIVERS. WITH ICE IN THE
RIVERS...WATER LEVELS COULD FLUCTUATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
546 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-301100-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
546 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW ICY SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED SURFACES THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS COULD RISE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
MELTING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. WITH ICE IN THE RIVERS...WATER
LEVELS COULD FLUCTUATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-301100-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
546 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL REDEVELOP
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.