Alert archive / Michigan / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 3, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

March 31, 2016Kent County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this river flood warning at Mar 31, 2016, 10:17 PM EDT for Kent County, Michigan. It was in force for 52 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 31, 2016, 10:17 PM EDT (02:17 UTC)
Expired
Apr 3, 2016, 2:00 AM EDT
In force
52 hr
Issued by
NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Kent County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Rogue River at Rockford (ROCM4).

Action stage
7 ft
Minor stage
8 ft
Moderate stage
10 ft
Major stage
11 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04118500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

096 
WGUS43 KGRR 010217
FLWGRR


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1017 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a flood 
warning for the following rivers in Southwest Lower Michigan...

  Rogue River Below Rockford affecting Kent County

.Between 1.5 and and 2.5 inches of rain has fallen upriver from
Rockford. The river is currently out of its banks and the river will
continue to rise on Friday. Minor flooding is expected. The following
forecast is based on observed and forecast 24 hour precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Even 6 inches of fast-moving flood water can knock 
you off your feet... and a depth of 2 feet will float your car.  
Never try to walk... swim... or drive through such swift water.  If 
you come upon flood waters... stop... turn around and go another way.

This warning will be in effect until the river falls below its flood 
stage.  

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local 
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further 
information.

Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr.

&&

MIC081-020417-
/O.NEW.KGRR.FL.W.0003.160401T0217Z-160403T0600Z/
/ROCM4.1.ER.160401T1400Z.160402T0000Z.160403T0000Z.NO/
1017 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Rogue River Below Rockford.
* until late Saturday night.
* At 9:00 PM Thursday the stage was 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, rise above flood stage by Friday late morning and 
  continue to rise to near 8.4 feet by Friday evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* Impact, at 8.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of homes upstream of 
  Rockford.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 8.4 feet 
  on Sep 1 1975.  

&&

LAT...LON 4306 8555 4309 8555 4313 8551 4313 8559
      4310 8562 4306 8562             

$$

CAS
4 follow-up statements
915 
WGUS83 KGRR 011558
FLSGRR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest 
Lower Michigan...

  Rogue River Below Rockford affecting Kent County
  Muskegon River Near Croton affecting Newaygo County
  Maple River At Maple Rapids affecting Clinton County

.Rain amounts between 0.5 and 2.5 inches have fallen across the 
entire area since Wednesday. Rivers are rising and flooding of low 
lying areas adjacent to river banks is expected or already occurring.
The following forecast is based on observed and forecast 24 hour 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... Motorists should not attempt to drive around 
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local 
radio, television or NOAA Weather Radio station for further 
information.

Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr 

&&

MIC037-021758-
/O.CON.KGRR.FL.W.0004.160403T0000Z-160405T1200Z/
/MRPM4.1.ER.160403T0000Z.160403T1200Z.160405T0000Z.NO/
1158 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Maple River At Maple Rapids.
* from Saturday evening to Tuesday morning.
* at 11:15 AM Friday the stage was 8.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening and continue 
  to rise to near 9.1 feet by Sunday morning. the river will fall 
  below flood stage by Monday evening.
* Impact, at 9.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of County Line Road and
  a home along County Line Road.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 9.0 feet 
  on Mar 24 2014.  

&&

LAT...LON 4298 8493 4308 8468 4310 8457 4317 8456
      4314 8471 4302 8495             

$$

MIC081-021757-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160403T1500Z/
/ROCM4.1.ER.160401T1317Z.160402T0600Z.160403T0300Z.NO/
1158 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rogue River Below Rockford.
* until Sunday morning.
* at 11:00 AM Friday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will continue rising to near 8.5 feet by after 
  midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow 
  late evening.
* Impact, at 8.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of homes upstream of 
  Rockford.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 8.4 feet 
  on May 31 2010.  

&&

LAT...LON 4306 8555 4309 8555 4313 8551 4313 8559
      4310 8562 4306 8562             

$$

MIC123-021757-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160406T1800Z/
/CROM4.1.ER.160331T2137Z.160402T0600Z.160406T0600Z.NO/
1158 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Muskegon River Near Croton.
* until Wednesday afternoon.
* at 11:30 AM Friday the stage was 9.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will continue rising to near 10.2 feet by after
  midnight tonight.  The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact, at 10.0 feet...Flood water begins surrounding properties 
  downstream from the City of Newaygo in the areas of Anderson Flats 
  and Old Womans Bend in Garfield Township and Freight Hill 
  subdivision and South River Drive and Main Street in Bridgeton 
  Township, impacting 54 properties. Felch Avenue near Salmon Run 
  Campground and South River Lane become impassable in Garfield 
  Township. Expect minor flooding in Leisure Land subdivision and 
  Sycamore Flats. Expect all public river access sites to be closed.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 9.9 feet 
  on Jan 30 2013.  

&&

LAT...LON 4328 8604 4338 8578 4342 8562 4346 8570
      4345 8582 4335 8604             

$$

63
016 
WGUS83 KGRR 020221
FLSGRR


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1021 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest 
Lower Michigan...

  Maple River At Maple Rapids affecting Clinton County
  Rogue River Below Rockford affecting Kent County
  Muskegon River Near Croton affecting Newaygo County

.Heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday has caused river levels to
rise. Flooding is occurring near Rockford and Croton and is expected
to occur near Maple Rapids. The following forecast is based on
observed and forecast 24 hour precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Motorists should not attempt to drive around 
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local 
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further 
information.

Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr 

&&

MIC037-030421-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0004.160403T0600Z-160405T1800Z/
/MRPM4.1.ER.160403T0600Z.160404T0600Z.160405T1800Z.NO/
1021 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Maple River At Maple Rapids.
* from late Saturday night to Tuesday afternoon.
* at  9:15 PM Friday the stage was 8.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, rise above flood stage by early Sunday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 9.1 feet by early Monday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Tuesday early afternoon.
* Impact, at 9.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of County Line Road and
  a home along County Line Road.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 9.0 feet 
  on Mar 24 2014.  

&&

LAT...LON 4298 8493 4308 8468 4310 8457 4317 8456
      4314 8471 4302 8495             

$$

MIC081-030421-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160403T1800Z/
/ROCM4.1.ER.160401T1317Z.160402T0030Z.160403T0600Z.NO/
1021 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rogue River Below Rockford.
* until Sunday afternoon.
* at 10:00 PM Friday the stage was 8.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will remain near 8.4 feet into Saturday morning
  then fall below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Impact, at 8.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of homes upstream of 
  Rockford.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 8.4 feet 
  on May 31 2010.  

&&

LAT...LON 4306 8555 4309 8555 4313 8551 4313 8559
      4310 8562 4306 8562             

$$

MIC123-030421-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160406T0600Z/
/CROM4.1.ER.160331T2137Z.160402T1200Z.160406T0000Z.NO/
1021 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Muskegon River Near Croton.
* until late Tuesday night.
* at  9:30 PM Friday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 10.0 feet by Saturday
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday evening.
* Impact, at 10.0 feet...Flood water begins surrounding properties 
  downstream from the City of Newaygo in the areas of Anderson Flats 
  and Old Womans Bend in Garfield Township, and Freight Hill 
  subdivision and South River Drive and Main Street in Bridgeton 
  Township, impacting 54 properties. Felch Avenue near Salmon Run 
  Campground and South River Lane become impassable in Garfield 
  Township. Expect minor flooding in Leisure Land subdivision and 
  Sycamore Flats. Expect all public river access sites to be closed.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 9.9 feet 
  on Jan 30 2013.  

&&

LAT...LON 4328 8604 4338 8578 4342 8562 4346 8570
      4345 8582 4335 8604             

$$

CAS
765 
WGUS83 KGRR 021546
FLSGRR


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1146 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest 
Lower Michigan...

  Maple River At Maple Rapids affecting Clinton County
  Rogue River Below Rockford affecting Kent County
  Muskegon River Near Croton affecting Newaygo County

.Recent heavy rain has caused river levels to rise. Additional
precipitation... mainly in the form of snow over the weekend...
may prolong the amount of time some rivers stay above bankfull.
Flooding of low lying areas near river banks is occurring or is
expected to occur. The following forecast is based on observed and
forecast 24 hour precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... Motorists should not attempt to drive around 
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local 
radio, television or NOAA Weather Radio station for further 
information.

Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr 

&&

MIC037-031746-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0004.160404T0000Z-160405T1200Z/
/MRPM4.1.ER.160404T0000Z.160404T0000Z.160405T0000Z.NO/
1146 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Maple River At Maple Rapids.
* from Sunday evening to Tuesday morning.
* at 11:15 AM Saturday the stage was 8.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact, at 9.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of County Line Road and
  a home along County Line Road.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 9.0 feet 
  on Mar 24 2014.  

&&

LAT...LON 4298 8493 4308 8468 4310 8457 4317 8456
      4314 8471 4302 8495             

$$

MIC081-031200-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160403T1200Z/
/ROCM4.1.ER.160401T1317Z.160402T0030Z.160403T0000Z.NO/
1146 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rogue River Below Rockford.
* until Sunday morning.
* at 11:00 AM Saturday the stage was 8.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall below flood stage by this
  evening.
* Impact, at 8.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of homes upstream of 
  Rockford.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 7.8 feet 
  on Apr 29 2011.  

&&

LAT...LON 4306 8555 4309 8555 4313 8551 4313 8559
      4310 8562 4306 8562             

$$

MIC123-031746-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160407T0600Z/
/CROM4.1.ER.160331T2137Z.160402T0600Z.160406T1800Z.NO/
1146 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Muskegon River Near Croton.
* until late Wednesday night.
* at 11:30 AM Saturday the stage was 9.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall below flood stage by 
  Wednesday early afternoon.
* Impact, at 9.5 feet...Flood water begins surrounding cottages and 
  homes downstream from the City of Newaygo in the areas of Leisure 
  Land subdivision in Bridgeton Township and Sycamore Flats in 
  Ashland Township impacting 17 properties.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 9.9 feet 
  on Jan 30 2013.  

&&

LAT...LON 4328 8604 4338 8578 4342 8562 4346 8570
      4345 8582 4335 8604             

$$

63
888 
WGUS83 KGRR 030245
FLSGRR


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1045 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

 ...The Flood Warning has been cancelled and downgraded to a Flood 
Advisory for the following river in Southwest Lower Michigan...

  Rogue River Below Rockford affecting Kent County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest 
Lower Michigan...

  Maple River At Maple Rapids affecting Clinton County
  Muskegon River Near Croton affecting Newaygo County

.Rivers continue to run high as a result of recent precipitation. 
Minor river flooding is occurring around Croton, and is expected 
around Maple Rapids. The Rogue River near Rockford is falling but is 
still running above bankfull. The following forecast is based on 
observed and forecast 24 hour precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Motorists should not attempt to drive around 
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local 
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further 
information.

Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr 

&&

MIC037-040445-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0004.160404T1200Z-160406T1800Z/
/MRPM4.1.ER.160404T1200Z.160405T1200Z.160406T1200Z.NO/
1045 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Maple River At Maple Rapids.
* from Monday morning to Wednesday afternoon.
* at 10:15 PM Saturday the stage was 8.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday 
  morning.
* Impact, at 9.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of County Line Road and
  a home along County Line Road.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 9.0 feet 
  on Mar 24 2014.

&&

LAT...LON 4298 8493 4308 8468 4310 8457 4317 8456
      4314 8471 4302 8495             

$$

MIC123-040444-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160407T1800Z/
/CROM4.1.ER.160331T2137Z.160402T0600Z.160407T0600Z.NO/
1045 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Muskegon River Near Croton.
* until Thursday afternoon.
* at  9:30 PM Saturday the stage was 9.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will continue rising to near 9.7 feet by 
  Sunday evening. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact, at 9.5 feet...Flood water surrounds cottages and homes 
  downstream from the City of Newaygo, in the areas of Leisure Lane 
  subdivision in Bridgeton Township, and Sycamore Flats in Ashland 
  Township, impacting 17 properties.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 9.9 feet 
  on Jan 30 2013. 

&&

LAT...LON 4328 8604 4338 8578 4342 8562 4346 8570
      4345 8582 4335 8604             

$$

MIC081-030315-
/O.CAN.KGRR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160403T1200Z/
/ROCM4.1.ER.160401T1317Z.160402T0030Z.160402T2245Z.NO/
1045 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rogue River Below Rockford.
  and has been downgraded to a Flood Advisory.
* at 10:00 PM Saturday the stage was 7.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 6:45 PM Saturday.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall to 6.8 feet by Monday 
  morning.
* Impact, at 8.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of homes upstream of 
  Rockford.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 8555 4309 8555 4313 8551 4313 8559
      4310 8562 4306 8562             

$$

CAS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 31, 7:59 PM EDT, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 7:59 PM EDT, 2 hours 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN THE SHOWERS WILL END BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS IT BECOMES COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM WESTERN
CANADA BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE EXITED SO HAVE UPDATED FOR A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER ON AS THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES IN FROM THE WEST. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF
FOG ALONG THE LAKESHORE PER LATEST SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS AT HOLLAND
AND SOUTH HAVEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WE ARE TRACKING STRONG STORMS THAT WILL CROSS THIS AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT OUR NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT MAY WELL
BRING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY DURING THE DAY.

THANKS TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 60 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE NEAR 500 J/KG...IN
COMBINATION WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A 120 KNOT JET AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE... THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION WE
WILL SEE A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART IT WOULD SEEM THE STORMS SHOULD BE
SUB-SEVERE BUT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE GOOD DYNAMICS ALREADY IN PLACE.

ONCE THAT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GONE SO I
DO NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURE.

ON FRIDAY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD BUT DEEP
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO I HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO COVER THAT
MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE SNOW EVENT ON SATURDAY IS THANKS TO A 140 KNOT JET EXIT
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING THROUGH DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
HELP THE CAUSE FOR SNOW. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING AIR THAT IS
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. IT SHOULD SNOW HARD ENOUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CWA TO KEEP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WHILE IT
IS SNOWING (NOW SHOWN IN OUR GRIDS TOO WELL) SO I WOULD EXPECT 2
TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS... MOSTLY ON GRASSY
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING A BIT BY WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SNOW NORTH OF I-96. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TWO TO FIVE INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHERN FCST AREA NORTH OF I-96.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE EXITED AND A FEW HOURS OF VFR CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION IS AT
MKG WHERE STRATUS OFF LK MI WILL LEAD TO IFR/LIFR CIGS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN NUMEROUS IFR CIGS BY 06Z. IFR TO MVFR WILL LINGER ON
FRIDAY MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

I WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED A GALE WARING ON SATURDAY FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT COMING
THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON DAM. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER NEAR
CROTON IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 9.3 FEET ON
SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS IN THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT 9.0 FEET... EXPECT
MINOR FLOODING OF COTTAGES AND HOMES DOWNSTREAM OF NEWAYGO ON
RIVERVIEW DRIVE IN BRIDGETON TOWNSHIP AND PEPPERIDGE IN ASHLAND
TOWNSHIP.

OTHERWISE... NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN
HAS RECEIVED 1.00-1.75 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR SINCE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG STORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 7:40 PM EDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-011045-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
740 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ADJACENT TO THE LAKE SHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS WEEKEND AT LEAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TODAY.

LMZ844>849-011045-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
740 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAF. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TODAY.

DUKE WDM 93

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 7:22 PM EDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
722 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW JACKSON           42.26N 84.46W
03/31/2016  M49 MPH          JACKSON            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION JACKSON COUNTY-REYNOLDS FIELD
            AIRPORT /JXN/

&&

CAS
Local storm report, Mar 31, 7:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
731 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE NORTON SHORES      43.17N 86.24W
03/31/2016  M2.22 INCH       MUSKEGON           MI   PUBLIC

            36 HOUR TOTAL AT MUSKEGON COUNTY AIRPORT
            /MKG/. 1.26 INCHES FELL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0445 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CROTON                  43.44N 85.67W
03/31/2016  M1.93 INCH       NEWAYGO            MI   MESONET

            24 HOUR TOTAL AT THE CROTON RIVER GAUGE
            /CROM4/

&&

CAS
Local storm report, Mar 31, 7:34 PM EDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE NORTON SHORES      43.17N 86.24W
03/31/2016  M2.22 INCH       MUSKEGON           MI   ASOS

            CORRECTED REPORT. 36 HOUR TOTAL AT MUSKEGON
            COUNTY AIRPORT /MKG/. 1.26 INCHES FELL SINCE
            MIDNIGHT.

&&

CAS
Local storm report, Mar 31, 7:40 PM EDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             HESPERIA                43.57N 86.04W
03/31/2016  E0.25 INCH       OCEANA             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

0445 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HESPERIA                43.57N 86.04W
03/31/2016  M1.89 INCH       OCEANA             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CAS
Local storm report, Mar 31, 7:46 PM EDT, 2 hours 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             CUSTER                  43.95N 86.22W
03/31/2016  E0.25 INCH       MASON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0325 PM     HAIL             HESPERIA                43.57N 86.04W
03/31/2016  E0.25 INCH       OCEANA             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

0355 PM     HAIL             1 S ALLENDALE           42.97N 85.95W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   AMATEUR RADIO

0403 PM     HAIL             2 N MACATAWA            42.80N 86.20W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0407 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S HOLLAND             42.74N 86.10W
03/31/2016  M48 MPH          ALLEGAN            MI   ASOS

            PEAK WIND GUST AT KBIV

0411 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOLLAND                 42.77N 86.10W
03/31/2016  M40 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   AMATEUR RADIO

0412 PM     HAIL             3 WSW BAUER             42.90N 85.96W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0415 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE NORTON SHORES      43.17N 86.24W
03/31/2016  M2.22 INCH       MUSKEGON           MI   ASOS

            CORRECTED REPORT. 36 HOUR TOTAL AT MUSKEGON
            COUNTY AIRPORT /MKG/. 1.26 INCHES FELL SINCE
            MIDNIGHT.

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE BAUER             42.91N 85.87W
03/31/2016  M45 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT DAYBREAK CHURCH. VIA WOOD-TV

0418 PM     HAIL             3 NNE DRENTHE           42.82N 85.92W
03/31/2016  M0.50 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0420 PM     HAIL             HUDSONVILLE             42.87N 85.86W
03/31/2016  M0.50 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   PUBLIC

0425 PM     HAIL             1 SSW GRANDVILLE        42.89N 85.76W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0427 PM     HAIL             2 SW GRANDVILLE         42.88N 85.78W
03/31/2016  M0.50 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0430 PM     HAIL             1 WNW GRAND RAPIDS      42.97N 85.68W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       KENT               MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND MINOR STREET FLOODING

0430 PM     HAIL             GRAND RAPIDS            42.96N 85.66W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW EAST GRAND RAPIDS 42.94N 85.61W
03/31/2016  M51 MPH          KENT               MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            51 MPH WIND GUST AND PEA SIZE HAIL

0435 PM     HAIL             3 N MASON               42.63N 84.44W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       INGHAM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0444 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW OSHTEMO           42.25N 85.68W
03/31/2016  M0.87 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   COCORAHS

            0.87 INCHES OF RAIN IN 1 HOUR, 10 MINUTES.

0445 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HESPERIA                43.57N 86.04W
03/31/2016  M1.89 INCH       OCEANA             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

0445 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CROTON                  43.44N 85.67W
03/31/2016  M1.93 INCH       NEWAYGO            MI   MESONET

            24 HOUR TOTAL AT THE CROTON RIVER GAUGE
            /CROM4/

0445 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE DORR               42.73N 85.71W
03/31/2016  M52 MPH          ALLEGAN            MI   MESONET

0445 PM     FLOOD            3 W GRAND RAPIDS        42.96N 85.71W
03/31/2016                   KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING AT BUTTERWORTH AND OBRIEN

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW CASCADE           42.88N 85.52W
03/31/2016  M46 MPH          KENT               MI   ASOS

            PEAK WIND GUST AT KGRR

0521 PM     HAIL             4 WNW DECATUR           42.13N 86.05W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   PUBLIC

0525 PM     HAIL             LAWTON                  42.17N 85.85W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0533 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW ITHACA            43.32N 84.68W
03/31/2016  M41 MPH          GRATIOT            MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION GRATIOT COMMUNITY AIRPORT /AMN/

0534 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N EDGEMONT PARK       42.78N 84.59W
03/31/2016  M43 MPH          CLINTON            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT /LAN/

0535 PM     HAIL             2 S WESTWOOD            42.27N 85.63W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0539 PM     HAIL             1 SSE KALAMAZOO         42.26N 85.59W
03/31/2016  E0.75 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT

0545 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAND RAPIDS            42.97N 85.66W
03/31/2016  M1.01 INCH       KENT               MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. FROM WOOD-TV

0550 PM     HAIL             AUGUSTA                 42.34N 85.35W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0555 PM     HAIL             2 W BEDFORD             42.39N 85.27W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0558 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW BATTLE CREEK      42.31N 85.25W
03/31/2016  M46 MPH          CALHOUN            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION W K KELLOGG AIRPORT /BTL/

0603 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW BROWNLEE PARK     42.33N 85.16W
03/31/2016  M45 MPH          CALHOUN            MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

0603 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW BROWNLEE PARK     42.33N 85.16W
03/31/2016  M45 MPH          CALHOUN            MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

0610 PM     HAIL             BELLEVUE                42.44N 85.02W
03/31/2016  E0.25 INCH       EATON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE CHARLOTTE         42.57N 84.81W
03/31/2016  M46 MPH          EATON              MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION CHARLOTTE FITCH BEACH ARPT
            /FPK/

0625 PM     HAIL             LANSING                 42.71N 84.55W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       INGHAM             MI   PUBLIC

0628 PM     HAIL             2 NNW EAST LANSING      42.76N 84.49W
03/31/2016  E0.50 INCH       INGHAM             MI   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT

0650 PM     HAIL             4 NNW DANSVILLE         42.61N 84.33W
03/31/2016  M0.25 INCH       INGHAM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW JACKSON           42.26N 84.46W
03/31/2016  M49 MPH          JACKSON            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION JACKSON COUNTY-REYNOLDS FIELD
            AIRPORT /JXN/

&&

CAS
Local storm report, Mar 31, 8:23 PM EDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
823 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BELLEVUE                42.44N 85.02W
03/31/2016  M1.32 INCH       EATON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 31, 10:50 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGRRKent6 days
Mar 31, 10:50 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGRRBarry8 days
Mar 31, 10:50 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGRRMuskegon3 days
Mar 31, 10:50 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGRRGratiot51 hr
Apr 1, 11:51 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGRRClinton4 days
Apr 1, 12:22 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGRROttawa5 days
Apr 1, 3:37 PM EDTGale WarningGRR31 hr
Apr 1, 3:37 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryGRR19 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2016Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.