Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
107 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Convective trends and the potential for severe thunderstorms will
be the focus of this forecast.

A cold front was movg through far northwest MN and eastern SD
early this morning. Ahead of the front, a QLCS with a LEWP
structure was movg through northern and central MN, fueled by
strong moisture convergence on the nose of a 45-50 kt LLJ.
There have been recent reports of 70+ mph gusts with the most
intense portion of the line in central MN. There is ample CAPE
(around 1000 j/kg) and moisture to sustain this line of convection
into north central WI, with an expected arrival time around 13z.
However, the QLCS will encounter much weaker shear as it
approaches GRB CWA, so the most likely scenario would be for the
line to become outflow dominant and weaken to sub-severe limits
before movg into north central WI. Regardless, the morning
convection and debris clouds could impact convection later in the
day by suppressing daytime heating.

Models generally agree that additional convection will develop
along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening, with
enough instability (CAPE 1500-2500 j/kg) and deep layer shear (35
to 40 kts) to support a severe thunderstorm threat. Just not
confident enough in the details, especially given the morning
convection, to explicitly mention severe in the grids. SPC has
most of GRB in a SLGT risk, with the Fox Valley and Lakeshore
regions in a MGNL risk due to the later arrival of storms well
after peak heating. Tstms will taper off on our eastern counties
after midnight, with dry conditions returning by daybreak.

After muggy highs in the 80s to around 90 today, the arrival of
a Canadian air mass will result in highs about 10 degrees cooler
on Friday, and much more comfortable humidity levels.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

A quiet pattern will be in place through early next week thanks
to northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Then
potential for stormy weather increases again by Tuesday, and
continues through the middle of next week. Will continue to put
more weight into the better verifying ecwmf.

Friday night trough Saturday night...A shortwave trough will be
moving over the Upper Peninsula on Friday evening before exiting
overnight.  Mid and upper levels are very dry, so no threat of
precip.  Then high pressure builds in for Saturday and Saturday
night, which look mostly clear and seasonable.  No significant
changes to temps.

Rest of the forecast...The high pressure system will gradually slide
east over the region Sunday and Monday.  Then as the flow turns to
the southwest as the high departs, increasing moisture and the
possibility of weak shortwave energy will lead to increasing chances
of storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Seasonable temps will turn
above normal by this time.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Low confidence level with this set of TAFs as mesoscale models
have been inconsistent. The expected scenario had the line of
storms, that was moving out of Minnesota this morning, weakening
or dissipating as it moved into the forecast area, then storms
firing later today. The line held together and produced damaging
wind gusts in central Wisconsin where MUCAPEs were in the 1000 to
2000 j/kg range. Not sure this will be the end of the storms for
the day since there is clearing behind them, the approaching cold
front was still in Minnesota at midday, and there has been more
development in Minnesota and far western Wisconsin. Have the line
of convection, that contained the severe storms, continuing across
the rest of the area today and held onto some thunderstorms
through the early evening. After that the forecast is dry with
winds shifting to northwest with the passage of the front.
Ceilings were mostly VFR with spotty MVFR. Showers and storms were
producing mainly MVFR conditions with some strong and gusty winds.
Conditions should be VFR later tonight and Friday morning.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR WIZ022.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
409 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-050915-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
409 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE IN EASTERN DOOR COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SWIMMERS SHOULD USE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO FORWARD THEIR REPORTS OF
ANY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL GREATER THAN A HALF AN INCH.

LMZ521-522-541>543-050915-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
409 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
ADJACENT TO DOOR COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOR
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

KIECKBUSCH/MPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1209 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     TSTM WND GST     WAUSAU                  44.96N 89.63W
08/04/2016  E65 MPH          MARATHON           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUPLE OF TREES DOWN, BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

ML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1214 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     TSTM WND GST     WAUSAU                  44.96N 89.63W
08/04/2016  E65.00 MPH       MARATHON           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUPLE OF TREES DOWN, BRANCHES DOWN. CORRECTED TIME.

&&

ML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1230 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     TSTM WND GST     ANTIGO                  45.15N 89.15W
08/04/2016  E60 MPH          LANGLADE           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1230 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

WIZ035-036-045-041830-
PORTAGE WI-WOOD WI-WAUSHARA WI-
1230 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WOOD AND PORTAGE COUNTIES...

AT 1229 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSVILLE TO NEAR
BABCOCK TO TOMAH. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BABCOCK AROUND 1235 PM CDT.
  WISCONSIN RAPIDS AROUND 1250 PM CDT.
  LAKE WAZEECHA AROUND 1255 PM CDT.
  PLAINFIELD AROUND 130 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE RUDOLPH...CUSTER...
KELLNER...CRANMOOR...KEENE...ELLIS...POWERS BLUFF COUNTY
PARK...BETHEL... STANDING ROCK PARK AND PORT EDWARDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4469 9001 4468 8923 4398 8922 4398 8960
      4425 8960 4425 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 268DEG 24KT 4437 9003 4423 9018 4399 9052

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
109 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW NEOPIT             45.01N 88.85W
08/04/2016                   MENOMINEE          WI   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN.

&&

ML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
125 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

WIZ011>013-020-021-031-073-074-041930-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY WI-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY WI-
NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY WI-SHAWANO WI-FLORENCE WI-FOREST WI-
SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY WI-MENOMINEE WI-
125 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN...

AT 123 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF HOMESTEAD TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF
GOODMAN TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN TO 7 MILES NORTH OF LEGEND
LAKE TO NEAR EMBARRASS. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHAWANO...KINGSFORD...GILLETT...CRIVITZ...PEMBINE...MOUNTAIN...
GOODMAN...WAUSAUKEE...POUND AND HOMESTEAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR ANY INLAND LAKES...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 4592 8810 4582 8814 4578 8809 4579 8799
      4568 8778 4565 8783 4559 8778 4556 8783
      4550 8779 4535 8789 4535 8775 4539 8770
      4534 8772 4492 8809 4468 8873 4468 8884
      4497 8859 4527 8844 4581 8851 4595 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 238DEG 41KT 4577 8843 4549 8839 4530 8837 4501
8852 4471 8878

AK