Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
224 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016

A large MCS is slowly working its way east through central
Wisconsin early this morning. The main question is how far east
this convective complex will track. NWP and hi-res models indicate
that this system should dissipate as it heads east towards eastern
Wisconsin given less instability. However this system does appear
to be well organized and mature and the models have not exactly
been stellar lately, therefore faith in this solution is tenuous
at best. Given these concerns will raise pops across all areas to
account for the eastward progression of this system this morning,
but keep pops lower out east than out west given the lower
instability. The main concern from this system will be flooding,
as PWAT values are a healthy 2 inches. However this system appears
to be moving now so the flooding that was experienced upstream is
not expected to materialize across our cwa if it keeps moving the
way it currently is.

Attention then turns to later this afternoon and tonight as an
upper level jet becomes situated across the western Great Lakes
with the southeastern cwa under the right entrance region of this
upper level jet streak. Although there are some dry solutions in
this setup, there are also some models that are producing
thunderstorms. If thunderstorms can materialize, and the
atmosphere is not affected by this mornings convection, there will
be a substantial amount of mucape to work with on the order of
3000 to 4000 J/kg with around 30 knots of 0 to 6 km bulk shear.
However there are some concerns with initiation as there is only a
surface trough with weak convergence and westerly 850 mb flow.
Therefore will maintain chancy pops across the eastern and
southern cwa this afternoon and into tonight. If there is
sufficient recovery and enough of a trigger to initiate
convection there is a marginal threat for severe weather later
this afternoon and into the evening. However the stabilizing
effect and debris clouds from this mornings convection is not yet
known so the severe threat is not yet clear. Although clouds may
limit how warm the area gets today, humidity will still make it
feel hot as evidenced by dew points still in the 70s in the middle
of the night. High temperatures were a blend of the models with
the expectation of some afternoon sun to boost afternoon highs.
Given the time of year this would not require much in the way of
sunshine with the still high sun angle.

Attention then turns to Wednesday afternoon as a cold front tracks
through the western Great Lakes with an attendant mid level
shortwave and the region still in the right entrance region of the
upper level jet. Although instability will be a bit less, with
2000 to 2500 J/kg, bulk shear will be around 40 knots. Given the
dynamics and instability in place Wednesday afternoon appears to
be a better threat for widespread severe weather, which is
highlighted by a slight risk for severe weather across the
southern 2 tiers of our counties and a marginal risk across the
rest of the area. Hot and humid weather will still be a concern
ahead of the cold front with afternoon highs well into the 80s and
dew points around or exceeding 70 degrees away from north central
Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016

Forecaster confidence remains low in this portion of the forecast,
as a result of poor run to run continuity in the medium range models
as of late.  One trend has emerged though and that is the slowing of
the return flow from this weekend into early next week.  Will follow
the better verifying ECMWF for later periods.  Otherwise, a blend of
the ECMWF and GFS should suffice through Friday.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...A cold front will be
progressing across eastern WI during the evening hours, though most
models have already exited widespread precipitation by this time, as
the deep moisture axis shifts east of the area.  But with the front
yet to clear the area, will have to keep a chance of thunderstorms
in the forecast, mainly for eastern WI.  A fairly deep upper trough
will arrive overnight across the western Great Lakes.  Cooler and
less humid air will accompany the trough.  Although will see
clearing skies behind the front for a period, should see clouds
increase late overnight over north-central WI.  Shower chances will
arrive with the trough on Thursday as deeper moisture interacts with
daytime instability.  Will increase precip chances, especially over
north-central WI.  Some showers could linger into Thursday evening,
but should generally see a diminishing trend in the shower activity
through the evening hours.  Then may see partial clearing overnight.
No significant changes to temps over this period.

Rest of the forecast...High pressure will remain over the region on
Friday and Saturday.  With a cooler airmass in place, a few showers
could develop with heat of the day on Friday.  Since there has been
a slowing trend of the return of heat and humidity in the models,
this weekend is now looking mostly precip free, but a little leary
of model performance as of late.  Warmer air will be gradually
invading the region early next week when subtropical ridging builds
overhead.  Its looking possible that a major heatwave will be
significant story over the plains by the middle of next week.  Will
need to monitor the proximity of this hot airmass to the region by
this time.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds may
move into central and northcentral Wisconsin later tonight. The
activity should move east towards daybreak and weaken. Elsewhere
VFR conditions expected with LLWS due to a low level southwesterly
jet around 40 knots with south surface winds of 5 to 10 knots.
Hazy sunshine is expected tomorrow with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening FOR WIZ022-040-050.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
200 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

WIZ005-010-011-018-030-120800-
LINCOLN WI-ONEIDA WI-FOREST WI-MARATHON WI-VILAS WI-
200 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VILAS...NORTHWESTERN MARATHON...
ONEIDA...NORTHWESTERN FOREST AND LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 158 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAND O LAKES TO 5 MILES WEST OF MEDFORD.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RHINELANDER...EAGLE RIVER...MERRILL...LAC DU FLAMBEAU...TOMAHAWK...
ABBOTSFORD...SPENCER...PHELPS...BOULDER JUNCTION AND WOODBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4614 8909 4603 8877 4468 9032 4503 9031
      4504 9020 4512 9020 4512 9004 4598 9005
      4598 8993 4629 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 316DEG 14KT 4650 8886 4452 9110

MPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
249 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

WIZ005-010>012-018-019-030-120845-
LANGLADE WI-FLORENCE WI-LINCOLN WI-ONEIDA WI-FOREST WI-MARATHON WI-
VILAS WI-
249 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LANGLADE...
SOUTHEASTERN VILAS...WESTERN MARATHON...ONEIDA...NORTHWESTERN
FOREST...NORTHWESTERN FLORENCE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM
CDT...

AT 248 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DORCHESTER TO NEAR PHELPS. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RHINELANDER...EAGLE RIVER...MARSHFIELD...MERRILL...TOMAHAWK...ABBOTSFORD...
SPENCER...PHELPS...WOODBORO AND TIPLER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020 4512 9004
      4552 9004 4616 8922 4599 8867 4602 8853
      4600 8845 4468 9020 4468 9032 4469 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 330DEG 17KT 4500 9038 4609 8897

MPC

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