Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
558 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

MAIN forecast focus to be on this evening's time frame as a cold
front continues to march across the rest of Wisconsin, followed by
the passage of a trailing shortwave trough.

The 19z MSAS surface analysis placed the cold front from eastern
Upper Michigan southwest through central Wisconsin to central
Iowa. Convections continues along this frontal boundary, followed
by a brief break in the rain, then more scattered showers and
thunderstorms were located over northwest WI in association with
the shortwave trough. Behind all this activity was a large area of
high pressure building southeast into the Northern Plains.

The broken line of convection along the cold front will exit
eastern WI early this evening. However, may need to linger a small
chance of showers through the evening hours until the shortwave
trough rotates through the area. Did not mention thunder as
instability to weaken once we get closer to sunset. Once this
feature departs, the overnight hours will be dry for the entire
forecast area. Lingering low-level moisture, coupled with light
northwest winds, may allow for a stratus deck and/or fog to
develop late tonight. May need to add more clouds to the forecast
as a result. Min temperatures to range from the mid to upper 40s
north-central WI, to the mid 50s over east-central WI.

The high pressure is forecast to build into the Western Great
Lakes region on Friday, providing for mostly sunny skies/modest
northwest winds/less humidity and below normal temperatures. Look
for max temperatures to range from around 70 degrees north and
near Lake MI, to the lower to middle 70s south.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Nice summer weather is in store for the area through Independence
Day as dry northwest upper flow is forecast to gradually become
zonal by Tuesday.

Temperatures will start a few degrees cooler than normal Friday
and Saturday and be a few degrees above normal by Sunday and
Monday. Relative humidities should be very comfortable as well.

Warmer and more humid weather is likely during the middle and
later parts of next week as upper heights rise and surface winds
become more southerly. There is some chance of a backdoor front or
two next week with the upper flow like this and some cool air not
far away to our north.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 558 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Although a cold front has swept through the area late this
afternoon, some lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue
behind the front across the southeastern taf sites with activity
across the northern and western taf sites associated with the
upper level shortwave. The activity with the shortwave is expected
to die off around sunset, with the activity associated with the
front pushing off to the east within the next few hours. MVFR
conditions are possible with the heavier showers and
thunderstorms. Cigs/vsbys could briefly return to VFR conditions
later this evening, however the passage of a mid-level trough may
bring a band of high-end IFR or low-end MVFR cigs back to NE WI
late tonight. Once this system clears, an area of high pressure is
forecast to build into WI on Friday and bring VFR conditions back
to the area.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kurimski

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
307 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-012015-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
307 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY REPORTS
OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS REPORTED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN GREEN BAY WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

LMZ521-522-541>543-012015-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
307 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
DEATHS DOOR. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS ARE
ANTICIPATED...MAINLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WOULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO MARINERS.

AK/RDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
701 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             MARATHON CITY           44.95N 89.84W
06/30/2016  E1.00 INCH       MARATHON           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
713 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

WIZ030-010100-
MARATHON WI-
713 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 713 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTHWEST OF RIB MOUNTAIN...OR 14 MILES WEST OF WAUSAU...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WAUSAU AROUND 740 PM CDT.
  RIB MOUNTAIN AROUND 745 PM CDT.
  WESTON AND MOSINEE AROUND 800 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ROCKY CORNERS...
MARATHON CITY...RIB MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...LITTLE CHICAGO...PEPLIN...
SCHOFIELD...ROTHSCHILD...RIB FALLS...EVERGREEN AND EDGAR.

LAT...LON 4494 9008 4510 8995 4493 8942 4470 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 299DEG 19KT 4499 8993

KURIMSKI

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