Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
653 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, this evening and tonight.
Still very warm tomorrow. Then cooler and less humid for the
upcoming work week.

A strong band of westerlies is across the northern CONUS and
southern Canada, along the northern periphery the subtropical
ridge stretched out across the southern CONUS. An intense upper
level system embedded within the westerlies was located along the
Saskatchewan/Montana border at mid-day. The upper system will
continue tracking east-northeast, but a portion of the energy
will turn and dig southeast when it reaches the Great Lakes
region. Additional upper level energy is expected to be settling
south through the Gulf of Alaska at that time. The result will be
amplification of the longwave pattern over NOAM and a reformation
of a closed upper anticyclone over the intermountain west. The
upper flow across the forecast area will turn northwest as these
changes occur.

Temperatures will start out above seasonal normals, briefly fall
back to near or a little below normal early in the work week, then
settle in close to seasonal normals for the rest of the period. The
main precipitation event will be tonight, when a widespread
rainfall is expected. Developing northwest upper flow favors
mainly scattered light precipitation amounts with subsequent
events.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast concern remains on the severe threat with
thunderstorms to accompany a cold front across the region tonight.

The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated a weak area of low
pressure over northwest MN. A warm front stretched southeast from
the surface low through southeast WI. A cold front extended
south-southwest from the surface low through the Central Plains.
Radar mosaic showed one area of thunderstorms moving across Upper
Michigan associated with the 8H warm front. A small area of
thunderstorms were pushing northeast across west-central WI in
association with a weakness in the cap. A developing line of
storms was situated in the vicinity of the cold front and it is
this line that could produce strong to severe thunderstorms later
this evening/overnight.

The cold front is forecast to push into western WI this evening
and eventually reach eastern WI by daybreak. The air mass will
initially be very unstable with capes approaching 3K J/KG, LI's
approaching -10 and steep mid-level lapse rates. Moisture will
also be plentiful with dew points around 70 degs and PW values
around 2.0 inches. Expect to see the broken line of strong to
severe thunderstorms over MN reach Central/North-Central WI mid to
late evening with a threat of large hail and/or damaging winds.
The loss of daytime heating and only marginal deep layer shear
would point to only isolated severe storms this evening. For
eastern WI, most of the evening will be dry, but look for
showers/thunderstorms to arrive shortly after midnight. Less
instability and shear in the east should preclude much of a severe
threat although an isolate strong gusty wind is possible. By late
tonight, the precipitation will already be winding down over
North-Central WI and parts of Central WI once the cold front
clears the area. Min temperatures will be very mild with readings
in the mid 60s North-Central, lower 70s East-Central.

We will need to carry at least a chance of showers/thunderstorms
over Eastern WI through mid-morning Sunday until the cold front
exits the area. Otherwise, look for skies to become mostly sunny
over NE WI as the dry slot rotates through WI on the southern
flank of a closed upper low moving into southwest Ontario. Despite
the passage of the cold front, Sunday appears to be another warm
and breezy day, although humidity levels are forecast to slowly
fall as the drier air arrives. Max temperatures to range from the
lower to middle 80s North-Central/near Lake MI, to the mid to
upper 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At least areas of clouds are still expected to drop southeast
across the area Sunday night and Monday as the shortwave wrapping
around the southwest flank of the departing upper system crosses
the area. But the models have backed down with the amount of cloud
cover and southward extent of the precipitation since yesterday at
this time. Adjusted forecast accordingly.

The developing northwest upper flow will make timing of precipitation
chances difficult in the middle to later forecast periods. But the
main frontal boundary is expected to set up well south and west of
the area, so moisture and precipitation amounts will be limited.
No significant changes were needed to the extended forecast
initialization grids based on a broad blend of guidance products.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist early across the
forecast area, but a line of thunderstorms ahead of an
approaching cold front will move into unstable air in northern and
central Wisconsin during the evening. Storms farther to the north
will likely be stronger, possibly severe, than those in central
Wisconsin. Expect mainly MVFR with the approaching line of storms,
with IFR prevailing as the strongest storms move through during
the night. VFR conditions will return as the showers and storms
clear the area from west to east.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-262000-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
254 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME WHEN TRACKING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

LMZ521-522-541>543-262000-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
254 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES MAY APPROACH LEVELS
THAT POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY REACH LEVELS THAT POSE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT.

KALLAS/SKOWRONSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
915 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     TSTM WND GST     THREE LAKES             45.79N 89.16W
06/25/2016  E50 MPH          ONEIDA             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
926 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRESQUE ISLE            46.25N 89.73W
06/25/2016                   VILAS              WI   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN. POWER OUT.

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE MC NAUGHTON        45.77N 89.51W
06/25/2016                   ONEIDA             WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1011 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     HAIL             3 W MONICO              45.58N 89.17W
06/25/2016  E0.25 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1045 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

WIZ010-011-018-019-021-260445-
NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY WI-LANGLADE WI-LINCOLN WI-ONEIDA WI-FOREST WI-
1045 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LANGLADE...SOUTHERN ONEIDA...
SOUTHERN FOREST...NORTHERN OCONTO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM
CDT...

AT 1044 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF NEW WOOD WILDLIFE AREA TO NEAR
CARTER. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALSO...THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITHIN AN HOUR. THE INTENSE RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO URBAN STREET FLOODING.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
 MOUNTAIN AROUND 1055 PM CDT.
 ANTIGO AROUND 1100 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE JEFFRIS...BRYANT...
POLAR...ORMSBY...BOULDER LAKE CAMPGROUND...TOWNSEND...LENNOX...LAKEWOOD...
SPIRIT FALLS AND MOLE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 4556 9004 4555 8844 4512 8844 4513 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 345DEG 48KT 4533 9007 4532 8861

ECKBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1114 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HAIL             2 SSW BLACK CREEK       44.43N 88.45W
06/25/2016  E1.00 INCH       OUTAGAMIE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>