Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
308 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016

A short-wave trof and associated sfc trof will continue to
generate showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and
early evening. The tstms may produce wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
and hail up to dime size over north central WI, where CAPE is
currently 400-600 j/kg. Convection should quickly shift east of
the region by mid-evening, followed by partly cloudy skies for the
rest of the night.

On Monday, another short-wave trof and associated cold front will
push through the region. This wave will arrive earlier in the day,
with showers spreading southeast across the region during the
mid to late morning. With abundant cloud cover and limited
heating, instability should be weak, so not expecting any severe
weather.

lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s, with highs on Monday
only in the 60s to around 70 range.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016

A broad upper-level low pressure trough over the eastern half of
North America will deliver a chance for showers and thunderstorms
to Northeast Wisconsin through Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure
over western North America will intensify and shove the low
pressure trough east into the Atlantic by Friday. Dry and pleasant
weather is expected midweek during the transition, but warm
temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms will
return as the axis of the ridge approaches late in the week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016

An upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and
isold tstms to the region from mid-afternoon to early evening.
Confidence is only high enough to include a tempo group for
tstms at RHI/AUW/CWA. Aside from local mvfr conditions with
tstms, anticipate VFR conditions to prevail. Another short-wave
trof will arrive late Monday morning, and bring sct showers
to the TAF sites.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-062045-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT HAIL OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-062045-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY PRODUCE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS
WOULD BECOME SEVERE.

KIECKBUSCH/ML

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