Alert archive / Wisconsin / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

May 25, 2016Winnebago County, Wisconsin

NWS Green Bay, WI issued this special weather statement at May 25, 2016, 4:24 PM CDT for Winnebago County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2016, 4:24 PM CDT (21:24 UTC)
Expired: May 25, 2016, 5:15 PM CDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Green Bay, WI

County Winnebago County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 869 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 82 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 108 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 25, 2:17 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 25, 2:17 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
217 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low
pressure centered over northeast South Dakota early this afternoon.
A stationary front stretches east-southeast across southern
Minnesota to just north of Milwaukee.  With southwest flow
aloft...shortwave activity is moving across Minnesota and Iowa...and
is helping to generate clusters of showers and storms...with some
support from moisture convergence along the front.  ML capes are
approaching 1000 J/kg over southwest Wisconsin early this afternoon
where the first severe thunderstorm warning has been issued.  As
storms move northeast this afternoon...potential exists for a severe
storm to carry into central WI.  Severe and heavy rain potential are
the main forecast concerns in the short-term.

Tonight...The stationary front will return northward tonight as a
warm front...with some forward push provided by shortwave energy
moving northeast over the northern Mississippi valley. As pwats
climb to 1.6 inches ahead of the wave...the hi res models continue
to indicate that a swath of showers and storms will shift northeast
across the forecast area this evening.  But these models have a
slightly different playbook for tonight...some giving north-central
WI decent rainfall...while others show the heaviest rainfall moving
over central and northeast WI.  Sided with the former of the two
scenarios based on recent radar trends.  Regardless...rainfalls of a
half inch to an inch will be possible...locally over an inch in the
stronger storms.  If there is a severe weather threat...best chances
appear to be over central WI later this afternoon into early this
evening.  Progged RAP soundings near Wisconsin Rapids show ML capes
are expected to range from 800-1000 J/kg later this afternoon...with
0-6km bulk shear of 35 kts...and mid-level lapse rates greater than
7 C/km. These parameters suggest a low end damaging wind and large
hail threat are possible.  The threat of severe weather will
diminish rather quickly farther north and east...where the airmass
is more stable.  The showers and storms will be exiting northern WI
late in the evening...then a low overcast will settle in as a warmer
airmass arrives.  Some potential for a shower or storm to pop up
late tonight...but warm advection is relatively weak...and the
atmosphere will have been worked over for the most part.  Rather
muggy lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday...Northern Wisconsin will begin the day in the warm
sector...with rather cloudy/foggy skies.  The small chance of a
shower/storm will carry over from late tonight into Thursday
morning.  Then should see clouds give way to increasing sunshine
from late morning thru early afternoon.  This will promote temps
warming into the low to mid 80s at most locations in the afternoon.
Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s...ML capes are
expected to rise between 1500 and 2500 J/kg during peak
heating...with bulk shears upwards of 35 kts.  However...tough to
find a trigger for any storms.  Will go with a slight
chance...though highest over north-central WI...closer to shortwave
activity.  If any storms fire...pulse severe is possible.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

An upper-level low pressure trough over the western U.S. will
continue to generate warm and moist southerly winds in Wisconsin
Friday through Sunday...with mild temperatures and a round or two
of showers and thunderstorms during that time. Severe
thunderstorms are possible but will generally be isolated.

The upper level trough will gradually expand east and weaken by
early next week...producing a more zonal pattern and somewhat
cooler temperatures.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

A warm front will lift northeast across the region later
this afternoon and this evening.  Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase in coverage through the day...as they move into
central Wisconsin this afternoon and northern Wisconsin this
evening.  Some strong storms cannot be ruled out...which could
generate wind gusts above 40 mph and dime size hail.  Some
uncertainty with the timing of the arrival of the storms...but IFR
conditions will be possible as the storms pass.  In the wake of the
precipitation...LIFR/IFR cigs and IFR/MVFR vsbys are anticipated to
impact the taf sites from late tonight thru mid-morning before the
clouds scatter.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......MPC

Hazardous weather outlook, May 25, 2:13 PM CDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
213 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-261915-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
213 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME ISOLATED STORMS COULD
POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
THE SPECIFICS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-261915-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
213 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
STORMS BECOMING LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

AREAS OF MARINE FOG MAY CAUSE A NAVIGATION HAZARD FOR MARINERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MARINE FOG MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITY AND POSE A HAZARD TO BOATERS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MPC/ML

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 25, 2:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
235 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

WIZ030-035-036-045-252030-
PORTAGE WI-WOOD WI-MARATHON WI-WAUSHARA WI-
235 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARATHON...WESTERN
WAUSHARA...WOOD AND WESTERN PORTAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 235 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF AUGUSTA TO 10 MILES
TO NEAR PORTAGE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MARSHFIELD AROUND 300 PM CDT.
  SPENCER AROUND 315 PM CDT.
  WISCONSIN RAPIDS AROUND 320 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE RUDOLPH...KELLNER...
CRANMOOR...POWERS BLUFF COUNTY PARK...BIG EAU PLEINE COUNTY PARK...
LINDSEY...BETHEL...PORT EDWARDS...FENWOOD AND COLOMA.

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4503 9021 4453 8951 4398 8946
      4398 8960 4425 8960 4425 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 202DEG 26KT 4472 9100 4435 9047 4349 8953

ECKBERG

Special weather statement, May 25, 3:54 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
354 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

WIZ018-030-031-035>037-045-048-252130-
WAUPACA WI-SHAWANO WI-LINCOLN WI-PORTAGE WI-WOOD WI-WINNEBAGO WI-
MARATHON WI-WAUSHARA WI-
354 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARATHON...EASTERN WAUSHARA...
NORTHEASTERN WOOD...WESTERN SHAWANO...PORTAGE...WAUPACA...
SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND WESTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

AT 351 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARSHFIELD TO NEAR AMHERST
TO BERLIN. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  AMHERST AROUND 405 PM CDT.
  LAKE POYGAN AROUND 420 PM CDT.
  RANDOLPH AND FREMONT AROUND 430 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE ELLIS...TUSTIN...
PEPLIN...POY SIPPI...BIG EAU PLEINE COUNTY PARK...NORTHPORT...PINE RIVER...
RIB FALLS...FENWOOD AND KING.

LAT...LON 4398 8889 4398 8898 4433 8929 4470 9014
      4512 9008 4512 9004 4529 9004 4491 8919
      4442 8873 4427 8874 4390 8887
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 172DEG 21KT 4471 9005 4438 8929 4398 8894

ECKBERG

Local storm report, May 25, 4:07 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
407 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             WISCONSIN RAPIDS        44.40N 89.84W
05/25/2016  E0.25 INCH       WOOD               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LUCHS

Special weather statement, May 25, 4:24 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
424 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

WIZ045-048-252215-
WINNEBAGO WI-WAUSHARA WI-
424 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 423 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BERLIN...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE POYGAN AROUND 450 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE RIVERMOOR...METZ...
TUSTIN...AURORAVILLE...PICKETT...OMRO...MIKESVILLE...HARBOR SPRINGS...
ORIHULA AND EUREKA.

LAT...LON 4398 8889 4398 8908 4424 8888 4420 8859
      4390 8872 4390 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 202DEG 25KT 4398 8890

MPC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Green Bay, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 24, 7:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Florence	40 min
May 24, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marinette	33 min
May 25, 2:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Wood	55 min
May 25, 3:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Marathon, Portage, Waupaca	36 min
May 25, 4:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Waushara	25 min
May 25, 4:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Portage, Waupaca, Waushara	45 min
May 25, 5:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Waupaca, Winnebago	43 min
May 25, 6:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Wood	26 min
May 24, 7:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Dickinson	27 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Wisconsin, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.