Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Green Bay, WI

021 
WHUS73 KGRB 031616
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1016 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

.AS A STORM SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY.

LMZ541>543-040030-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160204T0300Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
1016 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...BUILDING 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

264 
WHUS73 KGRB 032146
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
346 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

.LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE AREA HAS TURNED WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND
ARE STILL GUSTY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT. BECAUSE
THE WIND DIRECTION IS OFFSHORE...WAVE ACTION IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...BUT CAN STILL BE AROUND FOUR FEET NEAR THE OPEN WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

LMZ541>543-040300-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-160204T0300Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
346 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...BUILDING 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
335 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

DEALING WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE THIS MORNING.

AFTER STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE ISSUE OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHIFTS WAS THE DURATION
OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SCOURED OUT. THAT CONTINUES TO BE
THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMOVED AT
THE ONSET OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.  PCPN WITH THE TRAILING
DEFORMATION REGION NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT DO ANTICIPATE THE MIXED
PCPN TO TURN BACK TO LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SATURATES THE AIR MASS
AND TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW. INTERESTING CONVECTIVE ELEMENT REMAINS
WITH THE TRAILING SURFACE LOW AND TRACKS ALONG LINGERING H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. GFS PRODUCES A 2-4 INCH REGION OF SNOW FOR EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE A BLEND OF THE
MODELS SUGGEST A 1-2 INCH SNOW THROUGH NOON TODAY.

ATTEMPTED TO COORDINATE REMOVING THE WARNING AROUND MIDNIGHT
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW STAYED JUST WEST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. BUT THIS WOULD COMPLICATE REGIONAL HEADLINES
SO WILL ADDRESS DROPPING IN A FEW HOURS...THIS INCLUDES DROPPING
MOST OF THE ADVISORY WHICH STARTED AT 12Z. EVEN THOUGH A WARNING
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WILL DOWNPLAY WITH THE PCPN
AND FOCUS ON ROAD CONDITIONS DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
RAIN.

SYSTEM DEPARTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR A CONTINUED DIMINISHING OF THE
LIGHT SNOW. WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MENTION
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT DIRECTION SUGGESTS NO HEADLINE IS NEEDED A
THIS TIME. A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO CONT ACROSS THE CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE NRN STREAM SENDING SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE CLIPPERS APPEARS TO
IMPACT NE WI DURING THE SUNDAY NGT/MON TIME FRAME. MEAN FLOW TO
CONSOLIDATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPR RDG BUILDS ALONG WRN
NOAM AND A DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF DEVELOPS OVER E-CNTRL NOAM. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES (BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS) WITH LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS FOR N-CNTRL WI.

THE FIRST CLIPPER/CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF WL CONT TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU EVENING AND WL CONT TO CARRY CHC POPS
OVER PARTS OF NRN AND ERN WI. A WEAK RDG OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TOWARD WI THU NGT AND MAY ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WL DICTATE HOW COLD WE
GET WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND A FRESH SNOW PACK. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY FROM 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO NORTH...AROUND 10 ABOVE CNTRL/E-CNTRL AND MID-TEENS
NEAR LAKE MI. THE MODEST SFC RDG MOVES ACROSS WI ON FRI...HOWEVER
THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER TO ALREADY BE DROPPING SE THRU THE NRN
PLAINS...THUS CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS FOR FRI WL RANGE FROM AROUND 20
DEGS N-CNTRL...LWR TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

THIS CLIPPER RACES EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI NGT ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK CDFNT AND A SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WL BE AN ISSUE FOR
PCPN POTENTIAL AS THE GULF IS SHUT-OFF BY A SRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. THEREFORE...DESPITE MODEST LIFT AND MID-LEVEL
FORCING...POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE CHC CATEGORY WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE CDFNT IS FCST TO SAG SWD INTO
SRN WI AND BECOME NEARLY STNRY ON SAT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC RDG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE LEFT OVER ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHWRS ACROSS NRN OR ERN WI
SAT MORNING AS THE CLIPPER DEPARTS...BUT FOR MOST AREAS...SAT WL
BE DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE
MID 20S NORTH...UPR 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

MODELS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF CLIPPER #3
HEADED INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM
AGREE ON THE TRACK BY TAKING THE SFC LOW E-SE INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY BY 00Z MON...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
INTENSITY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEAK SFC LOW...BUT
TRACKS THE LOW PRES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
FOR THE TIME BEING WL BE TO BRING THIS CLIPPER INTO SOME PART OF
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ENUF MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL OF NE WI.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE UPR RDG IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN
OVER WRN NOAM WITH A DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF DEEPENING OVER E-CNTRL
NOAM. SNOW CHCS WL CONT SUNDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER/ASSOCIATED
CDFNT/SHARPENING UPR TROF MOVE THRU WI. THE QUESTION FOR MON WL BE
HOW LONG THE CLIPPER WOULD IMPACT NE WI AS JET ENERGY ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE UPR TROF AND COULD STRENGTHEN/SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SFC LOW JUST TO OUR EAST. CONFIDENCE ON HOW ALL OF THIS PLAYS OUT
IS LOW...THUS WL CONT WITH THE CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. TEMPS WL START THEIR DOWNWARD TREND AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. LOOK FOR READINGS IN
THE LWR TO MID 20S N-CNTRL...MID 20S CNTRL AND UPR 20S TO AROUND
30 DEGS E-CNTRL WI. LASTLY...WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE TO KICK INTO GEAR FOR N-CNTRL WI.

THE RESULTING AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW MEANS THAT THIS SYSTEM WL NOT
DEPART QUICKLY FROM WI AND WL NEED TO CARRY CHC POPS THRU AT LEAST
MON NGT...IF NOT INTO TUE IN THE EAST. MAIN CONCERN MAY BE THE
LAKE EFFECT THREAT FOR N-CNTRL WI AS FAVORABLE TRAJS PERSIST AND
COLD AIR (8H TEMPS AROUND -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR) CONTS TO
FEED INTO WI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN. DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT GRB/ATW/OSH/SUE/MTW. WEDNESDAY WILL
START WITH IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS BUT WIND UP WITH MVFR
OR VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ010>013-
018>021-030-031-035>037-045-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-045-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005.
&&

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......RDM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-040500-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
1054 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DUE TO SNOW...SLEET OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS A STORM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. PLEASE CONSULT OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE SPECIFIC SNOW
TOTALS AND WINDS EXPECTED IN YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS ACROSS THE
REGION.

SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE NONE OF THESE CLIPPERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH SNOW TO THE AREA...SOME ROADS MAY BECOME
SLIPPERY AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN GREEN BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-040500-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1054 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE.

RDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     HEAVY SNOW       STURGEON BAY            44.83N 87.38W
02/02/2016  M6.4 INCH        DOOR               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1115 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     SNOW             3 SW SUAMICO            44.60N 88.09W
02/02/2016  E6.0 INCH        BROWN              WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TOTAL THROUGH 10 PM

1000 PM     SNOW             MERRILL                 45.18N 89.68W
02/02/2016  E5.0 INCH        LINCOLN            WI   PUBLIC

            TOTAL THROUGH 10 PM

&&

TH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 AM     SNOW             3 NE WAUSAU             44.99N 89.59W
02/03/2016  M5.7 INCH        MARATHON           WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TOTAL THROUGH 2 AM.

&&

TH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
305 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             45.91N 89.25W
02/03/2016  E3.5 INCH        VILAS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TH