Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Green Bay, WI

June 10, 2016Lincoln County, Wisconsin

NWS Green Bay, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 10, 2016, 5:29 PM CDT for Lincoln County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 12 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 10, 2016, 5:29 PM CDT (22:29 UTC)
Expired: Jun 10, 2016, 5:41 PM CDT
In force: 12 min
Issued by: NWS Green Bay, WI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

County Lincoln County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 140 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 10, 2:44 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 697 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 302 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

627 
WUUS53 KGRB 102229
SVRGRB
WIC069-102300-
/O.NEW.KGRB.SV.W.0025.160610T2229Z-160610T2300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
529 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 528 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST
  OF MERRILL...OR 17 MILES WEST OF ANTIGO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO 
           MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
  SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:
  GLEASON...DUDLEY...BLOOMVILLE AND DOERING.

THIS WARNING EXTENDS THE WARNING ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LINCOLN
COUNTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4535 8957 4535 8942 4512 8943 4512 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 301DEG 26KT 4524 8950 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ECKBERG

1 follow-up statement

239 
WWUS53 KGRB 102241
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
541 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

WIC069-102251-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-160610T2300Z/
LINCOLN WI-
541 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4535 8957 4535 8942 4512 8943 4512 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 301DEG 26KT 4519 8938 

$$

ECKBERG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 10, 2:52 PM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 10, 2:52 PM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
252 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Latest radar trends show line of convection extending from eastern
Lake Superior southeast to near MSP around mid-afternoon. Thus far
convection along this line has remained fairly tame, especially
the portion of the line over southern Minnesota where CAP appears
to be hindering convective development. Convection is still
expected to become more robust over far NW Wisconsin in the next
hour or two, in the vicinity of the approaching cold front, where
the front is likely becoming locally enhanced by the Lake Superior
influence and where upper dynamics is stronger ahead of
approaching shortwave impulse. Northern Wisconsin is also in a
more favorable deep layer shear environmet with values in the 30
to 35 kt range. Although latest model guidance has back off a bit
on the intensity of the convection into early evening, still feel
convection will continue to intensify and rapidly grow upscale in
quasilinear MCS, then drop southeast across the forecast area
early this evening. Radar trends and most recent model guidance
also suggests a faster progression of the convection through the
area this evening. Now expect MCS to be south of the forecast area
by 04 UTC. Combination of deep layer shear and instablity still
suggest portion of the MCS to produce large hail and damaging
winds. Also potential for an isolated tornado especially early
where more discrete convection will exist, particulary near the
triple point over northwest Wisconsin where more favorable low-
level shear profiles exist and perhaps near warm front pushing
into northwest Wisconsin. Will continuie to monitor closely next
few hours.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Friday
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Heat/humidity to linger Saturday until CAA kicks in after post-
frontal trof moves through during day. Small chance for a storm
to develop along surface trof in the afternoon across east-central
Wisconsin. Winds quickly shift N-NNE with backdoor cold front
potential late in day near Lake Michigan.

A little more confidence in long term as medium- and long- range
models come into better agreement, particularly the 10/12Z GFS and
ECMWF. Even a meandering cut-off low is forecast by both models to
affect Wisconsin by the end of the forecast period.

Until then, area is just east of upper level ridge axis. Occasional
ripples over the ridge will bring chances for convection.

Temperature forecast for this period is a blend of best performing
guidance.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

A warm front will continue to push northward across the state this
afternoon, while a cold front will approach from Minnesota this
evening. An area of showers and thunderstorms over northwest
Wisconsin is expected to congeal into a large quasilinear
convective complex by 20 UTC this afternoon and then quickly move
southeast across the forecast area this evening. Current thinking
is that the convective system will be south of the forecast area
by 04 or 05 UTC. An area of mfvr cigs/vsbys will accompany the
thunderstorms, along with brief wind gusts to 35 to 40 kts. The
convective system is expected to first impact RHI in the 20 to 22
UTC time frame, then CWA/AUW and GRB TAF sites in the 00 to 03 UTC
time frame. Some patchy fog is also expected late tonight behind
the area of showers and thunderstorms given the abundant low level
moisture, with the lowest visibility/ceilings expected over
central and northern Wisconsin after 08 UTC.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......ESB

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 10, 2:42 PM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111945-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTCENTRRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY...BUT THE PROBABLITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MANITOWOC TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS SATURDAY...MAINLY DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IF STORMS TONIGHT REMAIN LIMITED IN
COVERAGE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SATURDAY.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-111945-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME STROMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ON LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND MAY CAUSE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS FOR BOATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ESB/JKL

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 10, 4:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
417 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANITOWISH WATERS       46.13N 89.88W
06/10/2016                   VILAS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. ALSO PEA
            SIZE HAIL.

&&

Local storm report, Jun 10, 4:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
425 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MINOCQUA                45.86N 89.69W
06/10/2016                   ONEIDA             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREES DOWN, SOME ON A BUILDING. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

Local storm report, Jun 10, 4:37 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
437 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRIPOLI                 45.55N 90.00W
06/10/2016                   LINCOLN            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A COUPLE TREES ON POWER LINES.

&&

Local storm report, Jun 10, 4:53 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
453 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUGAR CAMP              45.78N 89.30W
06/10/2016                   ONEIDA             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

Local storm report, Jun 10, 4:59 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
459 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARBOR VITAE             45.91N 89.65W
06/10/2016                   VILAS              WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN. REPORT RELAYED BY WJFW-TV.

&&

Local storm report, Jun 10, 5:16 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
516 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S CRANDON             45.55N 88.90W
06/10/2016                   FOREST             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN NEAR METONGA LAKE.

0514 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUMMIT LAKE             45.38N 89.19W
06/10/2016                   LANGLADE           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES ON POWER LINE.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Green Bay, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 10, 12:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Waushara	38 min
Jun 10, 5:33 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Brown, Manitowoc	87 min
Jun 10, 3:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Lincoln, Oneida, Vilas	59 min
Jun 10, 3:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Vilas	38 min
Jun 10, 3:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Oneida	54 min
Jun 10, 4:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Vilas	49 min
Jun 10, 4:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Lincoln	59 min
Jun 10, 4:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Oneida	32 min
Jun 10, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Florence, Forest, Marinette, Oneida, Vilas	45 min
Jun 10, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Langlade, Lincoln	40 min
Jun 10, 5:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Forest, Langlade, Oconto	66 min
Jun 10, 5:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Florence, Forest, Marinette	47 min
Jun 10, 5:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marathon, Wood	51 min
Jun 10, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Langlade, Marinette, Menominee, Oconto	49 min
Jun 10, 5:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Langlade, Menominee, Shawano	54 min
Jun 10, 6:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marathon	37 min
Jun 10, 6:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marathon, Portage, Wood	54 min
Jun 10, 6:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Menominee, Oconto	30 min
Jun 10, 6:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Langlade, Marathon, Menominee, Shawano	47 min
Jun 10, 6:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Waushara	39 min
Jun 10, 6:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Menominee, Oconto, Shawano	37 min
Jun 10, 6:58 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		92 min
Jun 10, 6:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Shawano, Waupaca	61 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.