Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
150 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2016

Shortwave trough will lift out of the Great Basin this afternoon
and cut off over the northern Rockies tonight. Lift associated
with this system will interact with a dry line near the Kansas-
Colorado border area and result in isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms. Moderate instability has develop east of the dry
line with CIN quickly eroding and effective bulk shear is in the
40-45kt range. However, moisture is relatively limited with
surface dew points in the low to mid 50s east of the dry line.
There is a marginal risk of a severe storm or two with hail up to
quarter size and maybe a bit more of a wind threat with bases
around 7kft and DCAPE around 1200 near the dry line. Storms will
be moving northeast at near 40kts and severe threat should end by
06z at the latest.

Cold front will move through after midnight with winds diminishing
and shifting to the northwest. Cooler and much dryer air will
filter into the area on Tuesday. RH will plummet but winds will be
relatively light so not anticipating any fire weather issues.
Skies will clear and temperatures will reach the lower to middle
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2016

Westerly to southwesterly upper level flow is expected over the Tri-
State Area behind the low that will move over the Northern Plains
and ahead of the next trough that will bring cooler weather at the
end of the work week.

Tuesday night drier air will continue to move into the area behind
the cold front that moved through Monday night.  With light winds
and no cloud cover, expect good radiational cooling to occur.
The coolest temperatures are expected west of Highway 25 where lows
will fall into the mid to low 30s, with upper 20s very likely in low
lying locations.  This may lead to a hard freeze occurring for
locations in low lying locations.  A frost advisory will likely be
needed for Tuesday night for a majority of the Tri-State Area.

Wednesday dry conditions will continue despite minor disturbances
moving through the upper level flow over the Tri-State Area.  Highs
will warm a few degrees from Tuesday due to the winds turning back
to the south.

Wednesday night a cold front will move through the Tri-State Area.
Soundings across the Tri-State Area show a very shallow saturated
layer developing along the elevated frontal zone over East Central
Colorado as a short wave trough moves through.  The saturated layer
gradually deepens as it moves northeast across the area.  By the
time it moves over the northeast quadrant of the Tri-State Area
there may be enough elevated CAPE for a thunderstorm to develop. Due
to the shallow nature of the saturated layer, have very low chances
for rainfall, with chances gradually increasing overnight over
southwest Nebraska where the saturated layer will be deepest.
Otherwise lows will be warmer than last night due to the expected
cloud cover and stronger winds.

Thursday highs will be 20 degrees cooler than Wednesday as cold air
advection persists through the day.  The northwest quadrant of the
area may not warm much from the previous night.  Meanwhile the next
upper level trough will move over the Tri-State Area. Ahead of it
the environment will saturate from northwest to southeast with the
deepest saturation over the northwest half of the area. Large scale
lift will also overspread the area through the day.  Chances for
rainfall will increase to the northwest toward the best lift.

Thursday night rainfall chances shift to the southern part of the
area as an upper level short wave trough moves through, bringing one
more round of rainfall with it.  Am not too enthusiastic with
chances for rainfall due to the close proximity of the 500mb trough
axis and associated subsidence and the drier air moving in.
Otherwise lows will fall into the 30s.  Current forecast has lows
above freezing. This may not be cool enough if winds become light
during the overnight and clouds clear.

Friday through Monday will be dry and warmer as an upper level ridge
builds onto the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Mon Oct 3 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface
winds will gust from the south up to 40kts through the early
evening ahead of a surface trough in eastern Colorado. Isolated
thunderstorm will develop in the late afternoon on the trough/dry
line and quickly move northeast. Due to the limited coverage,
chances of directly impacting either terminal is too low to
include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will subside overnight
behind a cold front and shift to northwesterly.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
348 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-041200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
348 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2016 /448 PM CDT MON OCT 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MDT. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO NEAR 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES TO
HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY NEAR PLOWED FIELDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

FROST IS VERY LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25...WITH A
HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME PART OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RISK FOR FROST AND A
HARD FREEZE EXPANDS TO THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2016

COZ090-KSZ001-NEZ079-032230-
YUMA COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY NE-
355 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL
430 PM MDT/530 PM CDT/...

AT 354 PM MDT/454 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTH OF BONNY RESERVOIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS THUNDERSTROM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAIGLER...LAIRD AND BEECHER ISLAND.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4013 10169 3969 10202 3977 10223 4025 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 205DEG 40KT 3981 10208

BULLER