Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
600 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

SW flow remains in place across the plains with a mid-upper level
trough still in place across the desert southwest. Several weak
ripples (shortwave troughs) are rotating through the main flow aloft
with disorganized forcing leading to several pockets of
showers/thunderstorms early this afternoon.

Instability has already increased to 2000-3000 J/KG based on latest
RAP analysis, and thunderstorms have already developed near our
western CWA near this CAPE maxima aided by weak convergence along
surface trough. Shear is relatively weak and is expected to peak
around 30 KTS near 00z, so supercells are much less likely. There
is a region of veering nearing baroclinic zone in our south where
additional development is projected and there may be enough shear
for a more organized cell. Otherwise, the tendency will be towards
slower moving pulse type thunderstorms (large hail/strong winds).
PWATs should increase to 1-1.5" range late this afternoon, so
potential for locally heavy rain exists. Most guidance (other than
NAM) shows coverage peaking in the 00-06Z time frame and then moving
out of our CWA (or dissipating). NAM tries to linger
showers/thunderstorms through Sunday morning, and while there could
still be weak forcing in place decreasing considering the large
consensus towards dry conditions I favored that trend.

There is still poorly correlated precip signal in guidance Sunday
afternoon due to differences on timing of the next mid level vort
max to break out of the southwest and move northeast towards the
plains. NAM is certainly most aggressive, while GFS keeps conditions
dry through the afternoon. There is limited to no higher resolution
support. I kept slight chance/chance PoPs in place in the afternoon
(focused just east of surface trough) to remain consistent and
remain in line with ensembles. If thunderstorms develop we are
looking at similar threats as today with limited effective shear and
moderate instability. Seasonal highs (mid to upper 80s) are
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A weak H5 low will be situated over the four corners region on
Monday with elongated high pressure in place across the Southeastern
States. A theta-e boundary will divide moist and relatively unstable
air to the southeast and dry air to the northwest of the CWA.
Moisture will advect northward into the region along the axis of
instability and allow thunderstorms to develop along the boundary in
the presence of a weak shortwave. There is a bit of uncertainty
where the boundary will develop; however, the entire CWA will see at
least slgt chc to chc PoPs through the afternoon and evening with
higher rain chance to the southeast. For Tuesday, chc PoPs continue
along an area of weak upper divergence situated along the western
fringes of the high pressure area extending westward into the
central High Plains. Instability will be sufficient for thunderstorm
development through the afternoon and evening with the nearly
stationary theta-e boundary providing a focus for development. The
global guidance suggests that showers and thunderstorms will sustain
through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Another round of
thunderstorms is possible on Thursday as the boundary remains draped
across the region. Flow aloft will shift westerly as we head into
Thursday afternoon and help push the stationary surface boundary
eastward. Friday and Saturday should remain dry across the region;
however, there is much temporal disagreement between the global
models.

Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 80s
each day through the extended period as weak high pressure just
southeast of the region will influence the area. Lows will fall into
the upper 50s to lower 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

VFR conditions should prevail at both GLD and MCK through the TAF
period. The exception may be a brief period of MVFR conditions around
sunrise as patchy areas of fog may develop in low lying areas
between 10z-14z Sunday morning. After about 21Z, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread across the
region and continue beyond 00Z Sunday evening.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281700-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1053 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016 /1153 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FLAGLER COLORADO TO HILL CITY
KANSAS LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE
PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS THAT OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
621 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             4 S WESKAN              38.80N 101.95W
08/27/2016  E1.00 INCH       WALLACE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING GROUND. HAIL ENDING AT TIME OF EVENT.

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
721 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

KSZ042-280045-
WICHITA KS-
721 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 721 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES WEST OF LEOTI...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOTI.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3841 10140 3842 10150 3865 10148 3862 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 193DEG 14KT 3846 10143

007

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