Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
549 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Main concern will be if thunderstorms can continue to develop
along advancing cold front across eastern Colorado. While there is
a broken line of convection...cells have remained rather weak and
as front moves into a drier and less unstable airmass hard to see
coverage improving over the next few hours. Have refined PoP
forecast through 08z to account for latest trends, but think
probabilities east of the KS/CO state line remain low through the
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Main forecast issue will be chance/timing of rainfall. For
tonight...lee side surface will remain near or over the far west
portion of the area through this evening. At the same time
preliminary shortwave trough in advance of the main synoptic
trough. The first and weaker shortwave will move through the area
through the middle of the night. Since deeper lift and less
moisture will accompany these features, the lower/less
chance/coverage will occur.

The coverage/chance will increase late in the night as the main and
stronger shortwave trough begins to move through as a cold front
begins to move through the area. So a higher chance will occur late,
mainly in the north.

For Friday...Above mentioned main and deep lift due to the shortwave
trough and cold front will move through during the morning. Front
looks to exit the area early in the afternoon with the shortwave
trough exiting around the middle afternoon. However another
shortwave looks to be moving from the west/northwest at that time.
There may be a weak right rear quadrant of the jet that moves across
from the middle of the day through the afternoon.

Precipitation looks to increase dramatically during the morning with
most of the area, especially the north and eastern portions having
the best chance of precipitation during that time. During the
afternoon the main chance looks to be in the eastern portion that is
still closest to the front with the shortwave trough still to their
west. Lower pops will be in the west behind the main lift. Right now
it looks like the main threat for severe weather will be outside the
area due to the front moving through the area before peak heating
time.

Temperatures will be problematic due to cold front/cold air
advection, thick cloud cover, and ongoing precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

The best chance for precipitation during the long term period
appears to be Friday night, followed by a decrease in PoPs into
early next week before another system impacts the High Plains.
Temperatures drop Friday into Saturday and rise to start off next
week.

Friday night continues to look unsettled for the region as the upper
trough over the northern CONUS pushes a relatively strong cold front
south and east. Thunderstorm chances continue from the Friday
afternoon period into Friday night as a disturbance passes through.
Afternoon storm development in the eastern zones along the cold
front is anticipated to push east during the evening while
additional development occurs along the Front Range and enters the
CWA from the west. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible with large hail and damaging winds as the main hazards.
Will need to continue to monitor the speed of the front as it
approaches since this could impact thunderstorm chances.

For the weekend, the frontal passage brings a cool and stable air
mass to the High Plains with northwesterly flow aloft. Dry
conditions are forecast with the quick moving upper system advancing
out of the area and subsidence setting in behind. Saturday looks to
have below normal temperatures followed by an upward trend beginning
Sunday.

Monday through Thursday: The work week starts out dry and warm as
flow aloft turns southwesterly and high pressure moves onto the
Plains. Dry weather is currently expected for Monday and Tuesday
with the high influencing the forecast. Precipitation chances then
move in late Tuesday and persist through Thursday as the next system
impacts the region. An upper closed low looks to develop over
Canada, sending a cold front this way midweek which will generate
thunderstorm chances once again and potentially cooler temperatures.

The coolest temperatures of the long term will be on Saturday with
highs in the 70s. This is followed by a quick rebound into the 80s
for the rest of the period. Low temperatures are forecast to be
mainly in the 50s this weekend, rising into the 60s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

While thunderstorms may move out of eastern Colorado and impact
GLD between 03 and 06z as cold front/outflow boundary slowly moves
into the area. With very dry airmass in advance of this feature
have my doubts that any storm coverage would be significant and do
not think chances are high enough to include in TAF. As front
continues to advance expect area of low stratus to develop across
northeast Colorado and spread eastward reaching GLD around 14z and
likely remaining just west of MCK. Period of IFR to MVFR
conditions expected btwn 14 and 18z.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
959 AM MDT THU AUG 18 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
959 AM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 /1059 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO COLBY KANSAS TO LEOTI
KANSAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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