Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
201 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Aug 6 2016

Some clearing has occurred across southwest portions of the area
with corresponding weak to moderate instability. A few
thunderstorms already developing near the Palmer Divide and that
will only increase with the approach of the next shortwave trough
climbing the ridge in the southwest flow aloft. Surface based
instability drops off rapidly in the cooler air to the east which
will effectively end the threat of severe storms, but with copious
moisture available and at least weak elevated instability
expecting another wave of numerous to widespread showers/scattered
thunderstorms to move west to east across the area. There is a
slight risk for excessive rainfall and associated flooding as
storms move into higher precipitable water environment to the
east, but given recent biases of model qpf lack confidence for any
kind of headline, but will continue to mention in hwo.

Showers will linger in eastern areas Sunday morning before ending
by mid to late morning. Expect patchy fog as well in very moist
low levels with light upslope winds. Upper ridge axis is forecast
to strongly build northward during the day which should prohibit
most if not all precipitation chances. Nonetheless, will have some
slight chance pops in the afternoon across southern and western
areas where afternoon instability increases and surface cin will
be at a minimum raising the prospect of a few storms popping up
with surface heating.

Temperatures will be below normal today and near to slightly below
normal on Sunday...coolest in eastern and northern areas where
low clouds will be slow to clear in persistent upslope winds at
the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sat Aug 6 2016

Medium range guidance is depicting a bit slower pattern than in
previous runs. Upper ridge over Texas and the western Gulf will
slowly push east and flatten on Monday and Tuesday, continuing the
westerly flow aloft through late Tuesday. A relatively deep trough
will push east across the Pacific northwest and into the upper
Rockies on Wednesday which will tilt the pattern once more and
emphasize the southwesterly flow once more through early Thursday.
Moisture will increase during this time period; however, long
fetch moisture will not have time to develop as this will be
transient and the flow will shift more westerly once more as we
head through the day on Thursday. Upper flow shifts westerly on
Friday and then west to northwesterly as we head into Saturday.

PoPs will remain in the slgt chc to chc range for Monday mainly
during the afternoon/evening. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday as
westerly flow aloft will prevail. PoPs gradually increase Wednesday
through Friday as southwest flow returns; however will need to
reassess as new data is made available due to inconsistencies in the
model data for the medium to long range.

Temperatures will be near normal in the middle 80s on Monday with
above normal temperatures in the lower to middle 90s expected
Tuesday through Thursday as the ridge traverses the region. Near
normal temperatures in the middle 80s will return on Friday as
ridging exits eastward. Low temperatures will be in the 60s to near
70 degrees across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sat Aug 6 2016

Low ceilings will gradually improve through the afternoon with
limited surface heating. KMCK may fluctuate between MVFR and VFR
ceilings for a time, while KGLD will gradually rise from IFR to
MVFR and perhaps reach VFR by mid to late afternoon.

Another round of showers/thunderstorms will move through the
region tonight as a shortwave trough moves out of Colorado.
Ceilings and visibilities will decline as the showers increase in
coverage. In addition...will probably see areas of fog once again
Sunday morning with the copious low level moisture and light
upslope surface winds persisting.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1032 AM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071645-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1032 AM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016 /1132 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
320 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

COZ091-062145-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
320 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

AT 320 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN KIT
CARSON COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3913 10303 3914 10281 3904 10286 3904 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 200DEG 2KT 3906 10298

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
356 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

COZ091-062215-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
356 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

AT 356 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THURMAN...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN KIT
CARSON COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3957 10288 3947 10295 3947 10312 3957 10313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 195DEG 8KT 3952 10305

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
404 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

COZ091-092-062245-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
404 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON AND
NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 445 PM
MDT...

AT 403 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTH OF SEIBERT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. THIS STORM ALSO HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE AMOUNTS
OF SMALLER HAIL...WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVELING ON ROADWAYS HAZARDOUS.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KIT
CARSON AND NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3902 10293 3917 10288 3917 10264 3896 10266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 275DEG 10KT 3907 10284

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

COZ092-062330-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
502 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 501 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTH OF HASWELL...OR 42 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3869 10317 3869 10316 3870 10316 3870 10292
      3861 10287 3861 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 269DEG 13KT 3864 10310

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

COZ092-070030-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
547 PM MDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 546 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES EAST OF KIT CARSON...OR 13 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE
WELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHEYENNE WELLS AND FIRSTVIEW.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 136 AND 155.

LAT...LON 3896 10258 3881 10213 3861 10234 3862 10245
      3861 10257 3874 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 310DEG 16KT 3882 10260

DR