Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
303 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2016

18Z water vapor imagery indicated short wave trough moving over
the periphery of large H5 ridge centered over the four corners
area. At the surface...cold front had passed through majority of
the cwa...although may be lingering near the HLC area.

Main forecast concern will be potential for thunderstorm
development first along stalled front across extreme southern cwa
and then across the western zones as moist post frontal upslope
flow continues. Majority of models not really developing post
frontal convection...but based on latest observed cu fields to the
south of KDEN think it is worth at least a mention in the evening
hours. While 0-6 km shear is marginal...deep layer shear at 0-8 or
0-10 km indicate around 50kts available during the evening and
parcel paths indicate both these layers could have an impact on
storm development. Wont be shocked to see a few severe storms
north of the front should convective initiation occur. Front will
begin to lift north and point soundings support some possible
elevated convection...but despite favorable profiles models not
really initiating much if any precip. As such...can justify low
probabilities but nothing higher than that at the moment through
the evening hours. Weather should remain fairly quiet through the
day on Wednesday. Afternoon cap should diminish by 21z...but with
best sfc convergence to the west of the area would not anticipate
any storms really developing in the CWA but rather develop in the
west and drift into the forecast area. This type of development
leads me to think things will happen a bit later in the day and
have limited chances until the late afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2016

An active pattern develops as we head into Wednesday night and
Thursday. Low amplitude ridge slides eastward, allowing shortwaves
to travel up the western side of the ridge and usher in monsoonal
moisture out of the southwest. There is some disagreement with
regards to the specific placement of the ridge; however the general
consensus is that it will settle in over the central US Gulf Coast
States and become nearly stationary through the extended period. The
ECMWF puts the axis further east and brings in more monsoonal
moisture than does the GFS. Both scenarios bring shortwave troughs
out of the southern and central rockies over the course of the next
week. The best chance of thunderstorms will be on Thursday
afternoon/evening as a relatively strong shortwave pushes across the
CWA. A series of weaker shortwaves will bring thunderstorms into the
area each afternoon Friday through Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cloud cover dependent and will generally be below normal on Friday
and Saturday with near normal temperatures expected for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Aug 2 2016

Northerly winds will prevail this afternoon behind a cold front
before slowly shifting to the south during the overnight hours.
Think bulk of thunderstorm chances will remain well removed from
terminals and VFR conditions will prevail. Am a little concerned
about the rather high SREF probabilities for IFR conditions
developing around 12z north of KS-NE border. Threat looks very
conditional at this point but with warm front slowly advancing it
is not out of the question to see some stratus/fog develop ahead
of it.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1251 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031900-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1251 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016 /151 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

KSZ042-022200-
WICHITA KS-
434 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 434 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MODOC...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARIENTHAL.

LAT...LON 3850 10129 3849 10113 3830 10112 3829 10126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 086DEG 9KT 3840 10115

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