Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
551 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Adjusted forecast for tonight based on latest data and radar
trends. The first round of severe weather has exited the area with
another round about to move in from the north. This second round
will move south through the area during the evening hours. Am
expecting storm activity to be more isolated behind the group of
storms entering the area from the north, with storm activity
moving south of the area during the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently in a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area.
Mesoscale boundaries have made this a complicated forecast with
high resolution/convectively allowing models having a hard time
with current scenario. Look to have two different waves of
thunderstorms. Current activity will push south and east and then
another cluster moves in from the north later in the evening.
Activity should decrease in intensity after midnight but will be
around the rest of the night.

Should have lingering thunderstorms in the morning in the far
east. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable
air mass in place after tonight's convection and 700 mb ridging
on top of that. Temperatures will be problematic due to cloud
cover and rain cooled air mass. Depending on tonight's scenario
works out, night shift will need to look into the possibility of
fog.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A fairly typical upper air pattern continues for late June. Upper
high over the four corners area will remain about stationary
through the week with some strengthening through mid-week. The
overall result for the forecast area will be NW-WNW flow with
weak, difficult to time, short wave troughs moving over the
Central High Plains. As a result, pop forecasts are somewhat
generic with higher pops favoring times and locations where model
guidance is more consistent. Better chances for precipitation will
be Tuesday night and again Thursday night into Friday night.
Precip chances are lower at other times but cannot be ruled out
given the favorable flow aloft and lingering mesoscale features.
Over the weekend the upper flow becomes more zonal with continued
chances for scattered thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on
Wednesday, cooling to the lower 80s Thu-Fri and warming again over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the 0z TAFs. Storm activity
will increase this evening from north to south as severe
thunderstorms move into the Tri-State Area. KMCK should be east of
the severe weather activity this evening. Am expecting most of the
storm activity with the line of storms currently near K2V5, with
more isolated activity behind the line. These storms near K2V5
have a history of producing golf ball to baseball size hail with
60 MPH winds. Overnight KGLD may have MVFR ceilings that should
clear out mid morning.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1034 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016 /1134 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
428 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             5 NE TRIBUNE            38.52N 101.69W
06/27/2016  E0.88 INCH       GREELEY            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
459 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

KSZ041-042-272345-
GREELEY KS-WICHITA KS-
459 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT/645 PM CDT/...

AT 459 PM MDT/559 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF LEOTI...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOTI...LYDIA AND MARIENTHAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT/900 PM
CDT/ FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3835 10179 3862 10113 3826 10113 3826 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 336DEG 14KT 3834 10133

JN

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