Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
551 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Similar setup today as yesterday with a weak shortwave trough
coming out of the central Rockies and widely scattered
thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain areas of Cheyenne Ridge
and Palmer Divide. Instability is moderate at best with weak shear
and mean 0-6km winds at around 10kts suggesting locally heavy
rainfall the main hazard. Storms will reach far eastern Colorado
this evening but struggle to get any further east with loss of
surface heating.

A little different on Saturday as strong shortwave moving across
the northern high plains drops a surface cold front in the local
forecast area. It will settle along a Norton to Tribune line by
the afternoon which will be the favorable area for thunderstorm
development. Moderate instability along/south of the front and
deep layer shear at around 30kts will support a marginal/slight
risk for large hail and damaging winds. Instability quickly drops
to zero north of the front which will remain dry and slightly
cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Main forecast issue will be the chance of precipitation through the
period.  Satellite showing an amplified flow across the Pacific into
central North America. One rather strong upper low is over the
Pacific northwest with the next low diving toward the Gulf of
Alaska. Rather moist air mass resides over the area with satellite
and upper air analysis showing a subtropical moisture connection.

At jet level...models started out fine. At mid levels...the
Canadian/Gfs were doing better than the Ecmwf/Nam. Sref was doing
well with the surface pattern. The tended to start out warm with the
Canadian/Sref doing a little better than the Gfs/Nam.

Saturday night...Cold front and mid level shortwave will be
affecting the southeast third of the area at the beginning of the
period. Right rear quadrant moves across the north/northwest half of
the area during the evening hours and slightly into the early
morning hours. Also the front and the shortwave should move out of
the area at roughly the same time as the jet lift. Expecting
thunderstorms to end/move out of the area shortly after midnight.

Sunday/Sunday night...Drier and more stable air mass should reside
for most of the day as shortwave ridging/higher heights move over
the area during the day. Low level upslope/light winds will make for
a cooler day. The old front plus a convectively induced circulation
that is close to the southern portion of the area could cause some
thunderstorms in the far south but have very low confidence on this.
At the same time another weak shortwave approaches that area late in
the day from the west and northwest.

Storm motions will be from the west to northwest at 10 knots or
less. So whatever is out there is going to take its time moving.
This, convective feedback issues, and weak forcing make it hard to
determine how far east into the area this activity will move. At
this time have slight chance pops in the far south and west.
Temperatures will be cooler because of the cooler post frontal
upslope air mass.

Monday...Not sure what to make of this day. As has been the case
recently a lot of moisture and instability reside at 700 mb and
below with weak forcing and flow in place. The models, qpf blend,
and wpc forecast has qpf in my area in the morning. It is possible
that a weak/nondescript wave could be causing something, but I could
be reaching on that.

The 700 mb ridge is directly on top of our area with the 500 mb
ridge displaced to the west with a weak shortwave trough approaching
from the west/northwest in the afternoon. More qpf is generated and
forecast. So depending how this works out, there could be ongoing
precipitation through much of the day. Very uncertain about this
day. Am going to keep precipitation the whole just because of the
uncertainty of weak forcing, especially in the morning, on a
moist/unstable air mass. Lift does increase Monday afternoon in the
northwest half and did insert low chance pops there.

Light winds in a post front air mass and lingering and/or ongoing
precipitation through the day make for a problematic temperature
forecast. Have temperatures about the same to a little warmer than
Sunday maxes.

Monday night through Friday...Same general in the shorter term
continues during this period. Very hard to pick out details at
distance. Models are doing a little better today but are still
having their problems the further into the period they get. Again it
revolves around how far west does the ridge setup with the Ecmwf the
furthest east. Then it the problem starts becoming how much does the
ridge get beaten down and moved east. The Ecmwf is showing this more
than the Gfs. Models are also differing in how they the troughs over
the eastern portion of North America the unorganized trough along
the west coast. The Ecmwf is strong/deeper with the eastern trough.

Models and WPC manual surface progs show a front over or near,
mainly just to the south and west, through at least Thursday and
probably Friday. As has been the case recently, the amount of
mid/upper level will not be great through the first couple of days
with a much stronger system moving through on Wednesday. However
here the possibility of it moving through peak heating time does
exist. Depending on which model you choose there may be additional
shortwave energy on Thursday and possibly Friday.

Consequently the extended blend produced slight chance to chance
over some to all of the area through the period. Since so far out
and too many unresolved details will make little if any adjustments
to them and also on the temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 551 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK terminals. Main aviation concern will be whether
thunderstorms (currently in eastern Colorado) spread into the KGLD
or KMCK vicinity. At this time short range guidance continues to
show this activity decreasing in coverage as it moves past the
Colorado state line, so I left mention out of TAFs due to lower
confidence. Southerly winds should decrease below 12kt early in
the TAF period. A cold front will move over both terminalsbetween
15-18Z resulting in a shift in the winds to the northwest (then
North) increasing, with gusts around 25kt.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251630-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1030 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 /1130 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
OF A COLD FRONT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE TO NORTON,
KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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