Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon along
the Palmer Divide in northeast Colorado as well as a weak surface
boundary near the Colorado/Kansas border area as a shortwave
trough emerges from the central Rockies. The environment will be
moderately unstable with SBCAPE up to 3000 j/kg. Deep layer shear
is not great, at around 20-30kts, but should be sufficient for a
few organized updrafts and possibly a supercell or two. Storm
motions will be northeast at around 15kts, but right movers will
be considerably slower at 5kts or less to the south. So thinking
flash flood threat will be limited to the stronger rotating
storms, particularly near areas that received heavy rain yesterday
(Wallace, Logan and Gove counties). Feel however the threat will
be too limited to warrant a flash flood watch. Storms will be
moving east with the upper shortwave and waning in the overnight
hours with loss of daytime heating. Showers/isolated storms may
linger into early Tuesday or perhaps into the afternoon south of
Highway 40 where models keep most of the precipitation.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with northerly
flow resulting in highs around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Upper low will lift northeastward, out of North Dakota and into
southern Manitoba on Tuesday night and into Wednesday. High pressure
will build into the western states and push a previously cut off
area of low pressure eastward across Texas through the day on
Thursday and into Friday. Upper flow will transition to a west by
northwest direction as the H5 ridge becomes very amplified and
nearly stationary over the southwest on Friday and Saturday,
reaching all the way into southern Alberta. An upper low will move
into southern California late on Saturday and moderate as it is
influenced by the blocking ridge. Upper flow will gradually become
north northwest as we head into Sunday. Temperatures will warm
significantly as the ridge influences the region and superblend is
coming in gradually higher with each iteration. I would not be
surprised to see areas in the southern portions of the CWA rise to
90 degrees or higher on Friday and Saturday. The upper low will help
moderate the amplification of the ridge on Sunday and Monday,
pushing it slowly eastward at the same time. Overall, the pattern
will remain warm and dry through Sunday with PoPs increasing
slightly as we head into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Both taf sites will see mvfr/ifr conditions from 01z to 09z with
1-3sm in rain/hail/thunder...ceilings bkn015-030. Otherwise vfr
conditions before 01z...and after 09z. Winds south 10-20kts thru
01z then vrb15g30kts(DUE TO THUNDER) thru 04z-06z. By 04z...
general nw flow around 10kts will become ne with gusts near 20kts
aft 12z- 13z Tuesday. KGLD may see brief period of sw flow at
times aft 07z Tuesday.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-311630-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1030 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016 /1130 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR
WITH THESE STORMS. FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

COZ090-KSZ001-NEZ079-302330-
YUMA COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY NE-
502 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL 530
PM MDT/630 PM CDT/...

AT 502 PM MDT/602 PM CDT/...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WRAY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS THUNDERSTROM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WRAY...HAIGLER...PARKS...ALVIN...LAIRD AND WAUNETA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 237 AND 258.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT/1000
PM CDT/ FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4035 10205 4035 10163 3991 10167 4000 10235
      4044 10220 4044 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 272DEG 34KT 4014 10215

007

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
507 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             CLARKVILLE              40.38N 102.62W
05/30/2016  E0.88 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

JLUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND GST     KIT CARSON              38.76N 102.80W
05/30/2016  M57 MPH          CHEYENNE           CO   MESONET

&&

JLUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             WRAY                    40.08N 102.23W
05/30/2016  M0.50 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CAME IN TWO ROUNDS ROUGHLY THREE MINUTES APART.

&&

JLUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

COZ090-KSZ001-002-NEZ079-080-310015-
YUMA COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS KS-DUNDY NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
549 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL 615 PM MDT/715 PM CDT/...

AT 548 PM MDT/648 PM CDT/...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF AREA A CAMPGROUND TO 9 MILES
WEST OF BENKELMAN TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF BONNY RESERVOIR. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. FRANCIS...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...BIRD CITY...PALISADE...
STRATTON AND MCDONALD.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 215 AND 217.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT/1000
PM CDT/ FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 3983 10108 3957 10139 3969 10231 4000 10169
      4035 10146 4035 10081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 289DEG 36KT 4031 10150 4000 10169 3974 10223

007