Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Goodland, KS

215 
WWUS53 KGLD 230125
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
825 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

KSC203-230215-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-160523T0215Z/
WICHITA KS-
825 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY...

AT 825 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
MODOC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOTI...LYDIA AND MARIENTHAL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 10138 3858 10113 3827 10113 3826 10119
      3827 10132
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 224DEG 14KT 3834 10116 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

007

464 
WWUS53 KGLD 230145
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

KSC203-230154-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-160523T0215Z/
WICHITA KS-
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GOODLAND.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM CDT. 

LAT...LON 3847 10138 3858 10113 3827 10113 3826 10119
      3827 10132
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 171DEG 19KT 3844 10118 

$$

007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
558 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Latest upper air analysis has a closed low over far southeast
Canada and a short wave ridge over the plains. Water vapor shows
moisture wrapping around the low and around the ridge toward the
plains. A small area of subsidence is currently over East Central
Colorado, which is hindering any convection from occurring near
the dry line in Northwest Kansas.

For the rest of today windy conditions will persist across the
Tri- State area due to a strong low level jet mixing down.
Anticipate isolated storms to begin developing along the dry line
near Highway27 in the next couple of hours as a small area of
subsidence moves past the dry line. Storm coverage will gradually
increase through the afternoon as an upper level short wave trough
approaches from the southwest.

Regarding hazards...quarter size hail, damaging winds and tornadoes
will all be possible today and this evening.  Deep layer shear is
not as strong as yesterday, which would support smaller hail.
Damaging winds are only expected during the afternoon.  While deep
layer shear is weaker than yesterday, low level shear is already
around 20 kts, and should strengthen a bit more late this afternoon
as the low level jet intensifies. With a similar environment to
yesterday but weaker deep layer shear, am anticipating short lived
tornadoes, if they develop.  The best window for tornadoes to
develop will be from 4 PM MT until 8 PM MT.

Early this evening the storm coverage will peak, south of I- 70
centered over Highway 25. The dry line will retreat during this
time, but the main upper level support will be to the east, and
the majority of the higher mid level mixing ratios will be east
of Highway 27. Therefore am not anticipating any storms to develop
west of Highway 27 despite the retreating dry line. Toward mid
evening the storm coverage will begin shifting east out of the
area. There will be a lull during the late evening and first few
hours after midnight before the next round of thunderstorms
develop.

Overnight another round of thunderstorms will develop east of
Highway 25 ahead of the cold front where elevated instability will
develop.  Toward sunrise the elevated storms may become surface
based as the CINh drops to almost nothing.  The ongoing rainfall may
also cause the environment to wet-bulb and erase the CINh present.
Regardless, storms may become surface based toward sunrise along the
east 1/3 of the area ahead of the cold front.  Low level shear and
low cloud bases will be supportive of a tornado developing before
the storms exit the area.

Monday morning will be quiet storm-wise.  During the afternoon the
cold front will move back north over the southeast half of the area.
Meanwhile the dry line will be east of Highway 83.  An upper level
short wave trough will move over the dry line during the early
afternoon.  Anticipate storms to begin firing an hour or so earlier
in the afternoon due to the stronger lift and lower CINh available.
Deep layer shear will be much stronger than today, but low level
shear will be much less.  As a result large hail will be bigger, up
to soft ball size.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Southwest flow aloft will continue across the central High Plains
through Wednesday. Embedded weak shortwaves will result in
occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances
will be along and north of Interstate 70. On Thursday the main
energy lifts out across the central and southern Rockies providing
stronger synoptic scale forcing for thunderstorms. Wraparound
precipitation will continue into Friday with the slow moving upper
system. More of a zonal flow is forecast for next weekend but
models continue to be quite wet with embedded shortwave troughs
aloft and copious low level moisture available. As for severe
potential...certainly ahead of the upper low Tuesday and
Wednesday shear and instability will be sufficient, but as the
upper low gets closer Wednesday through Friday deep layer shear
will decrease as does the severe threat. However, as the upper
flow increases again over the weekend with the zonal flow, may
see increasing threat once again depending on where the instability
axis ultimately sets up. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 546 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Vfr conditions are expected for both sites through the period.
However uncertain how the thunderstorm forecast is going to turn
through tonight.

For kgld...it will be close but it looks like this evenings
thunderstorms will stay just east of the site. however will keep a
vcts mention for a few hours. Southerly winds near 25 knots with
gusts 30 to 35 knots through the evening hours. A cold front moves
through after midnight and depending on which model you choose
there could be a decent chance to affect the site. Due to
uncertainty...chose to keep a vcts mention. After the front moves
through the winds will become light and shifting. Another chance
for thunderstorms looks to occur very late tomorrow with no
mention at this time.

For kmck...through this evening there looks to be a little better
chance to have thunderstorms to affect the site. However, that
also depends on which high resolution model you choose. Have a
mention of -tsra from 01z to 03z. Some wind shear will be in place
from 03z to 07z. It appears that the better chance for
thunderstorms could occur after 07z when a cold front moves
through. However, this also depneds on which model you choose to
look at. At this time just have vcts but that may change at the
next issuance. Decreasing northerly winds will occur after this.
Another chance for thunderstorms looks to occur very late
tomorrow with no mention at this time and will leave out at this
time.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
632 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
632 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016 /732 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IN THIS AREA THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
LARGE HAIL...SOME AT LEAST 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES WILL BE
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE 9 PM CDT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EAST OF HIGHWAY
25. QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS. HOWEVER A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM RUSSELL SPRINGS
TO HILL CITY BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

KSZ028-029-230015-
LOGAN KS-GOVE KS-
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GOVE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 646 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SCOTT STATE LAKE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. THE STORM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL GOVE
AND SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3870 10109 3892 10110 3889 10076 3870 10082
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 186DEG 20KT 3865 10097

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