Severe Thunderstorm Warning 572, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
535 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu Sep 15 2016

Latest upper air analysis has the closed low moving onto the
Northern Plains.  At the surface a trough was located over far
Northwest Kansas.  Behind the trough low clouds and fog had ended by
late morning.  South of the trough a warm front was nearly
stationary.  Over the last hour or so cumulus clouds had begun to
develop along the frontal boundary.

Looks like storms will form in two areas this afternoon. The first
area is along a warm front along the southeast part of the Tri-State
Area. This area will have the best instability and lowest CIN to
start out due to the low level moisture advection from the low level
jet. As the afternoon progresses storm activity will spread north as
an upper level short wave trough moves overhead and the environment
becomes more unstable due to heating and increasing dew points. The
majority of this activity will be east of Highway 25 as storms
spread northward. The likelihood for severe weather will increase to
the east where mixed layer CAPE and deep layer shear will be higher.

A second area of storm activity will occur along the surface trough
currently over the north central part of the Tri-State Area. The
surface trough should remain fairly stationary until late afternoon
when an approaching cold front begins to push the trough southward.
In the meantime the clearing clouds are allowing in environment to
become more unstable along and ahead of the surface trough. Am
thinking storm activity will begin as the upper level short wave
trough moves overhead from the west, possibly bringing some isolated
storm activity into the Tri- State Area. This area of storm activity
should merge with the area to the south by early evening.

Main hazards will be possible with large hail and damaging winds.
However a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out due to the low cloud
bases around 2-3k ft AGL and 0-1km shear of 15kts. The window for
any tornado development will be late afternoon and early evening.
If tornadoes do develop, have higher confidence they will form east
of Highway 83. As mentioned earlier, the severe weather will be east
of Highway 25, with the odds of severe weather increasing to the
east.

Storm activity will be greatest during the early evening then end
from west to east as more stable air follows the cold front into the
Tri-State Area. There may be some lingering storms over the far
eastern part of the Tri-State Area after midnight.

Overnight fog may develop along the southeast portion of the Tri-
State Area near the warm front.

Friday morning the fog should end a few hours after sunrise.  Any
lingering storms should be east/southeast of the Tri-State Area by
mid morning, if not before.  The rest of the day will be cooler due
to the passage of the cold front tonight.  With fairly laminar flow
overhead and a stable environment, am not anticipating much, if any
cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu Sep 15 2016

The beginning part of the long term period looks to be fairly dry.
Friday night, could potentially see some precipitation in western
portions of the CWA but anything that develops will be isolated. The
bulk of the precipitation will be east of the region, along the
front that passed Thursday.

A trough stretching from the Dakota's to California will move over
the region Saturday. A shortwave is expected to move within the
primary flow and that will help will precipitation development. Bulk
shear look favorable but CAPEs are weak, so severe storms are
unlikely based off current model runs.

Sunday and Monday will both be dry. A ridge begins to move into the
region on Sunday as the trough moves east. By Monday, the CWA is
under a ridge which keeps the dry conditions.

On Tuesday, a trough is starting to build in the western CONUS. This
brings southwest flow to the region but conditions are still
anticipated to be dry as the ridge begins to move east.

Wednesday brings a change. A cold front is pushing east along with
the trough. Since the ridge is east of the region, an abundance of
moisture from the southwest flow gets pushed up into the area. This
will enhance precipitation chances over the region. Current guidance
is showing a shortwave to move over the CWA which will help with
storm development as well. Thursday will have continued
precipitation chances as southwest flow persists over the region.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s Saturday before jumping
into the 80s Sunday through Tuesday with the ridge over the region.
Wednesday and Thursday are anticipated to drop back down into the
70s and low 80s due to the cold front passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 535PM MDT Thu Sep 15 2016

Severe thunderstorm in process of moving towards KGLD with
additional thunderstorm activity (slightly weaker) southwest of
KMCK moving northeast towards the terminal. Storm moving towards
KGLD has history of large hail/strong winds. This activity will
impact both terminals during the evening hours before
transitioning eastwards. As front slides southeast tonight gusty
prevailing winds will develop and last about an hour before
backing off around sunrise Friday. Low stratus/fog may develop
along and southeast of this front, but at this time consensus of
guidance is favoring this remaining southeast of KGLD and KMCK.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
325 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-162130-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
325 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016 /425 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25 THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
TORNADOES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GOVE TO GEM TO STRATTON
NEBRASKA...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
635 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             2 E LEVANT              39.38N 101.15W
09/15/2016  E1.75 INCH       THOMAS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
641 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W MINGO               39.27N 101.07W
09/15/2016  M63 MPH          THOMAS             KS   MESONET

&&

HILL