Severe Thunderstorm Warning 567, NWS Goodland, KS

925 
WWUS53 KGLD 152338
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
638 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

KSC153-160000-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0567.000000T0000Z-160916T0000Z/
RAWLINS KS-
638 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTY...

AT 638 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF
MCDONALD...OR 10 MILES WEST OF ATWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEARDSLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 10124 3977 10131 4000 10137 4000 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 220DEG 11KT 3978 10123 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

007

217 
WWUS53 KGLD 152351
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
651 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

KSC153-160001-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0567.000000T0000Z-160916T0000Z/
RAWLINS KS-
651 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GOODLAND.


LAT...LON 3972 10124 3977 10131 4000 10137 4000 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 191DEG 20KT 3978 10123 

$$

007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
123 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu Sep 15 2016

Latest upper air analysis has the closed low moving onto the
Northern Plains.  At the surface a trough was located over far
Northwest Kansas.  Behind the trough low clouds and fog had ended by
late morning.  South of the trough a warm front was nearly
stationary.  Over the last hour or so cumulus clouds had begun to
develop along the frontal boundary.

Looks like storms will form in two areas this afternoon. The first
area is along a warm front along the southeast part of the Tri-State
Area. This area will have the best instability and lowest CIN to
start out due to the low level moisture advection from the low level
jet. As the afternoon progresses storm activity will spread north as
an upper level short wave trough moves overhead and the environment
becomes more unstable due to heating and increasing dew points. The
majority of this activity will be east of Highway 25 as storms
spread northward. The likelihood for severe weather will increase to
the east where mixed layer CAPE and deep layer shear will be higher.

A second area of storm activity will occur along the surface trough
currently over the north central part of the Tri-State Area. The
surface trough should remain fairly stationary until late afternoon
when an approaching cold front begins to push the trough southward.
In the meantime the clearing clouds are allowing in environment to
become more unstable along and ahead of the surface trough. Am
thinking storm activity will begin as the upper level short wave
trough moves overhead from the west, possibly bringing some isolated
storm activity into the Tri- State Area. This area of storm activity
should merge with the area to the south by early evening.

Main hazards will be possible with large hail and damaging winds.
However a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out due to the low cloud
bases around 2-3k ft AGL and 0-1km shear of 15kts. The window for
any tornado development will be late afternoon and early evening.
If tornadoes do develop, have higher confidence they will form east
of Highway 83. As mentioned earlier, the severe weather will be east
of Highway 25, with the odds of severe weather increasing to the
east.

Storm activity will be greatest during the early evening then end
from west to east as more stable air follows the cold front into the
Tri-State Area. There may be some lingering storms over the far
eastern part of the Tri-State Area after midnight.

Overnight fog may develop along the southeast portion of the Tri-
State Area near the warm front.

Friday morning the fog should end a few hours after sunrise.  Any
lingering storms should be east/southeast of the Tri-State Area by
mid morning, if not before.  The rest of the day will be cooler due
to the passage of the cold front tonight.  With fairly laminar flow
overhead and a stable environment, am not anticipating much, if any
cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu Sep 15 2016

The beginning part of the long term period looks to be fairly dry.
Friday night, could potentially see some precipitation in western
portions of the CWA but anything that develops will be isolated. The
bulk of the precipitation will be east of the region, along the
front that passed Thursday.

A trough stretching from the Dakota's to California will move over
the region Saturday. A shortwave is expected to move within the
primary flow and that will help will precipitation development. Bulk
shear look favorable but CAPEs are weak, so severe storms are
unlikely based off current model runs.

Sunday and Monday will both be dry. A ridge begins to move into the
region on Sunday as the trough moves east. By Monday, the CWA is
under a ridge which keeps the dry conditions.

On Tuesday, a trough is starting to build in the western CONUS. This
brings southwest flow to the region but conditions are still
anticipated to be dry as the ridge begins to move east.

Wednesday brings a change. A cold front is pushing east along with
the trough. Since the ridge is east of the region, an abundance of
moisture from the southwest flow gets pushed up into the area. This
will enhance precipitation chances over the region. Current guidance
is showing a shortwave to move over the CWA which will help with
storm development as well. Thursday will have continued
precipitation chances as southwest flow persists over the region.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s Saturday before jumping
into the 80s Sunday through Tuesday with the ridge over the region.
Wednesday and Thursday are anticipated to drop back down into the
70s and low 80s due to the cold front passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Thu Sep 15 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Am expecting thunderstorms
to begin to form mid afternoon and increase in coverage, possibly
near KMCK but north and east of KGLD. Have most confidence in
storms near KMCK by 0z. Main threat will be large hail and
damaging wind gusts. The storm activity will move east through the
evening. Fog will develop overnight along a warm front, but should
remain south of KMCK.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
325 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-162130-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
325 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016 /425 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25 THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
TORNADOES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GOVE TO GEM TO STRATTON
NEBRASKA...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             7 SE THURMAN            39.52N 103.13W
09/15/2016  E1.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            A LOT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
346 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             10 SE THURMAN           39.48N 103.10W
09/15/2016  E1.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL. MOSTLY NICKEL AND PENNY SIZE.
            HAIL COVERED GROUND. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

KSZ028-152215-
LOGAN KS-
500 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

AT 500 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF SCOTT STATE LAKE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3870 10106 3891 10100 3890 10084 3870 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 200DEG 25KT 3874 10098

007

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
437 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             8 N BETHUNE             39.42N 102.42W
09/15/2016  E1.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

KSZ002-014-152300-
THOMAS KS-RAWLINS KS-
545 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RAWLINS AND
NORTHWESTERN THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 545 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTH OF MCDONALD...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF BREWSTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEARDSLEY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3947 10118 3957 10139 3983 10127 3973 10099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 208DEG 24KT 3961 10132

007

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
454 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             11 N BURLINGTON         39.47N 102.30W
09/15/2016  E1.25 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL BETWEEN NICKEL AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

HILL