Severe Thunderstorm Warning 555, NWS Goodland, KS

477 
WWUS53 KGLD 062327
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

KSC065-070000-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0555.000000T0000Z-160907T0000Z/
GRAHAM KS-
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY...

AT 627 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
PALCO...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9991 3915 9993 3934 9969 3934 9960
      3913 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 210DEG 10KT 3920 9975 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JN

404 
WWUS53 KGLD 062354 RRA
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
654 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

KSC065-070004-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0555.000000T0000Z-160907T0000Z/
GRAHAM KS-
654 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 3913 9991 3915 9993 3934 9969 3934 9960
      3913 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 210DEG 10KT 3920 9975 

$$

JN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
225 PM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2016

The latest satellite imagery highlights the stalled frontal boundary
currently draped from southwest to northeast across the CWA. Looking
at model soundings and HiRes guidance, seems like the eastern and
southeastern counties will see the greatest chance of strong
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storm development will
likely be along and ahead of the stalled boundary with some
regressive movement of the boundary to the northwest as the evening
progresses. HiRes convective models initiate storms to the southwest
and train the storms northeastward which is a flash flooding concern
as the focus is centered across the eastern portions of the CWA,
which has already received heavy rainfall over the last several
days. Will need to monitor closely the initiation points as the
shear values are very high to the northwest of the boundary and CAPE
values well over 2000 J/Kg along and southeast of the boundary. Even
with the slight misalignment of indices, we could see isolated
severe if discreet storms are able to form. Supercells will be
relatively short lived if they are able to develop due to the slow
boundary motion and linear mode is more favorable at this time.

Thunderstorms will clear the region from southwest to northeast
overnight with mist or fog lingering into the early pre-dawn hours
on Wednesday. We should see gradual clearing by midday Wednesday
with only slight thunderstorm chances focused mainly in the
southeastern portions of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2016

Precip chances will linger across the area through Thursday as
airmass remains relatively unchanged and period of isentropic
ascent/waa develops overnight Wednesday and persists into the
morning hours. Expect abundant cloud cover to keep things on the
cool side on Thursday which will limit sfc instability and will
generally keep best severe weather chances to the south of the
area.

A strong cold front will sweep through the area Friday bringing a
cooler drier airmass into the cwa and gusty northerly winds. At
this time think cold air advection will be enough to offset dry
air moving into area and do not anticipate any critical fire wx
conditions. Strong consensus that sfc high will settle over the
region bringing clearing skies and light winds. May see
temperatures drop to around 40 or even into the 30s in isolated
areas.

Otherwise...dry weather and gradual warming conditions expected
through the weekend before storm chances return to the area at the
start of the week. Seeing a large degree of run to run variabilityand
large ensemble spreads with regards to this period...so overall
forecast confidence too low to really get into the details much at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2016

Widespread stratus is beginning to lift and clear this afternoon
with cigs recovering slowly. Expect thunderstorm development this
afternoon along a stalled frontal zone that stretches from
southwest Wallace County to KMCK. The better thunderstorm chances
will be east of this boundary but we cannot rule out lesser
chances to the west. Abundant atmospheric moisture is in place
with southwest flow aloft. VCTS is mentioned at both terminals
this afternoon and if TS moves over the terminal, vis could drop
suddenly and significantly. BR will follow the front as it becomes
a nearly stationary warm front this evening. We could see IFR to
LIFR as this occurs at both terminals.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ080-081.

&&

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
954 AM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071600-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
954 AM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 /1054 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THREATS INCLUDE...LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO REDEVELOP AND TRACK OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS RAISING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF A STRATTON NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE.
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND
COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING RAPIDLY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND COLORADO STATE LINES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE HALF MILE ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

KSZ016-029-062300-
GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
534 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 534 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
COLLYER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAINT PETER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 10015 3904 10015 3912 10021 3913 10020
      3913 10016 3916 10016 3934 9998 3913 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 241DEG 21KT 3907 10010

JN