Severe Thunderstorm Warning 544, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

Main concerns once again are thunderstorm coverage and heavy
rainfall/flash flooding/flooding concerns. Confidence is lowered
due to poor performance of models with yesterdays event, and some
model disagreement on how the evolution of tonight will pan out.
Air mass remains very moist and unstable. Area soundings this
morning showed precipitable water values near 1.5 inches.

A persistent instability/theta-e axis remains draped across the
center of the area from southwest to northeast. There one surface
boundary near the western end of the area and another draped over
the eastern end. PV/Satellite analysis show a decent shortwave
moving in from the southwest. At the same time all the models show
a right rear quadrant of the upper draped across the area. The
shortwave and jet lift move across the area from west/southwest to
the east through the evening.

Where the models are having trouble is where to put the
development. Some have it in the west and others in the east.
Considering that currently thunderstorms have developed and are
now moving into the western portion of the area, that looks to be
the way to go. Current trends favor the Rap and Hrrr.

So expect scattered thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall to move
across the area once again. Due to instability and shear in place,
severe looks likely as well. All in all a similar setup to the
last few days. So will keep the flash flood watch going with the
northeast portion of the area extremely susceptible to more
rainfall and flooding.

For Monday...with exception of jet lift, setup looks similar
tomorrow. Instability/moisture axis remains in the same place. So
more thunderstorms will be expected along with locally heavy
rainfall and possible severe.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

Trough extends down out of western Canada all the say into the
southern portions of California Monday night into Tuesday morning
with high pressure over the southern Mississippi Valley. The surface
boundary draped from southwest to northeast across the CWA continues
to remain nearly stationary as we head through the day on Tuesday.
This will provide a focus for scattered thunderstorm activity
through the afternoon and into the evening once more with only
moderate instability and relatively weak upper level support
provided by passing shortwaves. A cold front will push through the
region later on Tuesday with slightly drier air behind it that will
linger into the middle to end of the week. Dry weather prevails
through Saturday with another, stronger cold front traversing the
region on Friday. Due to dry air in place preceding the front, PoPs
will be low across the CWA and should remain east of the region.

Afternoon high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s
Tuesday with a few 90 degree locations in the eastern portions of
the CWA. Slightly cooler highs prevail for Wednesday and Thursday
with highs in the middle 80s. Cold frontal passage will cool things
off a bit heading into Friday and Saturday with afternoon high
temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

For KGLD...Mainly VFR conditions with scattered low/mid clouds.
VCTS 00z-03z...3sm br 10z-13z and VCSH 17z Monday onward. Winds SE
10-20kts becoming SSW by 03z Monday at 15-25kts. LLWS 220@50kts
from 03z-10z.

For KMCK... Mainly VFR conditions with scattered low/mid clouds.
VCTS 00z-03z...3sm br 10z-13z and VCSH 17z Monday onward. Winds
SSE 10-20kts w/ gusts to 25kts after 17z Monday. LLWS 200@50kts
from 03z-10z.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...NONE.
NE...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
805 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-060215-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
805 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016 /905 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS IN RECENT DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAIN REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
707 PM MDT SUN SEP 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             5 SW OAKLEY             39.07N 100.92W
09/04/2016  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
710 PM MDT SUN SEP 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             5 SW OAKLEY             39.07N 100.92W
09/04/2016  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
721 PM MDT SUN SEP 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             9 NNW ALVIN             40.43N 102.14W
09/04/2016  M3.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT. IMAGE POSTED OF HAILSTONE AND TAPE
            MEASURE.

&&

RHUSTED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
838 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016

KSZ003-004-050215-
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-
838 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DECATUR AND WEST CENTRAL
NORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 838 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
DRESDEN...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OBERLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OBERLIN...NORCATUR...JENNINGS...CLAYTON...DRESDEN...
KANONA AND REAGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3980 10004 3957 10040 3972 10074 3977 10074
      3998 10037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 243DEG 20KT 3966 10044

JN

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