Severe Thunderstorm Warning 441, NWS Goodland, KS

452 
WWUS53 KGLD 290348
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
948 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COC017-063-290400-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0441.000000T0000Z-160729T0400Z/
KIT CARSON CO-CHEYENNE CO-
948 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 948 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BOYERO...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 10315 3915 10308 3914 10276 3886 10281
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 308DEG 31KT 3903 10297 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

101 
WWUS53 KGLD 290356
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
956 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COC017-063-290406-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0441.000000T0000Z-160729T0400Z/
KIT CARSON CO-CHEYENNE CO-
956 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON AND
NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL EXPIRE
AT 1000 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 3897 10315 3915 10308 3914 10276 3886 10281
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 270DEG 24KT 3903 10297 

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
843 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Update issued to adjust pops based on current areal coverage off
of latest regional radar loop. The focus thru 06z Friday will have
highest pops west...tapering off thru 12z. looking for enhanced
wording for severe to cover thru 06z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The primary short term concern is the possibility of thunderstorms
and severe weather across the forecast area this afternoon and
tonight.

Early morning convection spread a large area of cooler air across
the northern 2/3 of the forecast area.  Have adjusted high
temperatures downward as a result for today also since another round
of cloud cover with convection is moving into the northern sections
of the forecast area.  The area of cooler air with temperatures in
the 70s may put a temporary damper on additional convective
initiation. However, south of the cool air, temperatures are
continuing to rise into the 90s.  So somewhere between the two,
likely near the boundary stretching from northeastern Colorado to
southwestern Kansas, expect additional convection to develop this
afternoon as the ongoing convection moves into the northern sections
of the forecast area. A check of guidance earlier this morning
showed CAPE values between 3k-4k in the current vicinity of the
boundary along with shear values that would support supercell
thunderstorm development.  Peak thunderstorm activity and severe
weather is expected primarily between 21Z and 03Z with storms
expected to taper off and move out of the area after 06Z.

On Friday generally cooler temperatures are expected across the
forecast area with isolated thunderstorms possible. No severe
weather expected on Friday at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The extended period has the potential to see precipitation each day
across the region. The only day that will be different is Friday
night, where upper level northwest flow will still be over the CWA.
Precipitation chances are still possible through the overnight hours
on Friday but the greatest potential for storms will be to the south
and southeast of the region. This is because the shortwave that is
moving through the high to central plains will be over those
locations; so instabilty will be greater down there.

For the majority of the period the CWA will be impacted by a ridge.
The GFS and European agree for the most part but differ slightly
starting Monday. The GFS has a more amplified ridge, whereas the
European has a less amplified ridge (almost a zonal pattern). As of
current model runs these difference don't show to be impacting the
CWA differently but will keep an eye on the progression as next week
approaches. As mentioned prior, precipitation chances are possible
during the afternoon into the overnight hours each day. This is due
to the inflow of moisture from the Gulf of California and Arizona
into the region. That along with embedded weak mid-level shortwaves
will help with developing some instabilty over the region. For the
most part, at this time, severe storms are not expected but isolated
strong storms are possible.

Temperatures are expected to reach into the mid to upper 90s
next week as the ridge impacts the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

For KGLD...VFR thru 06z with scattered/broken mid clouds giving
way to VCTS aft 02z. After 06z...mainly MVFR thru 16z Friday with
ceilings bkn015-025 and 3sm br 10z-16z. VFR after 16z Friday.
Winds meandering from ENE to SE thru the period around 10kts.
Gusts to 20kts are possible thru 06z Friday.

For KMCK...VFR thru 08z Friday with scattered/broken mid clouds
giving way to VCTS/SHRA by 03z. From 08z-14z MVFR with 3sm br and
ceilings around bkn025. After 14z Friday...VFR with scattered low
clouds. Winds ENE to SE around 10kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
620 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-300030-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
620 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016 /720 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
807 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ092-290215-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
807 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

AT 806 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BOYERO...OR 28 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILD HORSE AND AROYA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3900 10316 3887 10283 3864 10302 3873 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 301DEG 43KT 3891 10324

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
822 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ092-290230-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
822 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

AT 822 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF BOYERO...OR 28 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILD HORSE AND AROYA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3898 10316 3900 10315 3887 10273 3863 10290
      3879 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 299DEG 40KT 3888 10312

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
914 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ092-290330-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
914 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 930 PM MDT...

AT 914 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTH OF KIT CARSON...OR 24 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE
WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3902 10287 3904 10275 3904 10259 3880 10258
      3884 10286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 268DEG 11KT 3894 10277

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1020 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSZ016-290330-
GRAHAM KS-
1020 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 1030
PM CDT...

AT 1020 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF MORLAND...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF HILL CITY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILL CITY...MORLAND AND PENOKEE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3952 10011 3956 9994 3931 9973 3919 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 335DEG 26KT 3946 10000

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
928 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

COZ092-290345-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
928 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 945 PM MDT...

AT 928 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES NORTHEAST OF KIT CARSON...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FIRSTVIEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 10279 3904 10263 3904 10239 3880 10238
      3884 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 269DEG 28KT 3894 10266

JRM