Severe Thunderstorm Warning 365, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Early afternoon satellite and RAP upper level analysis shows large
scale ridge entrenched across the central US, with monsoonal flow
in across through the central Rockies. A shortwave trough is
currently rotating into northern Colorado/southern Wyoming with
thunderstorms activity initiating in the higher terrain. A warm
front is slowly progressing northward over our CWA and is still
roughly south of I-70.

Early this afternoon-Tonight: Warm front has been slower to lift
north than models had previously indicated, however a strong CAP in
place is limiting initiation within frontal zone. Thunderstorm
activity may still initiate as the front lifts north and
thunderstorms in Colorado may also begin to sneak into our far west
before main area of thunderstorms develops this evening. As the
shortwave moves out of the Rockies into western Nebraska this should
help speed up the movement on the warm front and by 00z this feature
should be near the northern part of our CWA. Higher resolution
models support thunderstorms merging into a cluster or complex as
LLJ increases this evening and then tracking over our far northwest
and this is where I placed highest PoPs.

There is a deep/moist air mass in place with PWATs exceeding 1.0"
and Tds (within frontal zone) in the 60-70 range. Thunderstorm
motions are expected to be around 15 kt and east-southeast flow
overrunning the frontal zone could lead to training of thunderstorm
activity. This raises the possibility for locally heavy rainfall
amounts and at least a localized risk for flooding in our northwest.
Initially CAPE will be favorable for severe thunderstorms, however
deep layer sheer is very marginal and main CAPE axis will trend
northward with front.

Tuesday: Ridge continues to amplify shifting main flow further west
away from our CWA. Some guidance is still hinting at isolated
thunderstorms moving into northwest portions of Yuma county, however
confidence is not high this will make it this far east. Slight
chance PoPs were maintained for now. Temperatures will trend upwards
with strengthening of the ridge and increasing southerly flow with
high temperatures at least in the upper 90s for most locations and
near 100 (to the low 100s) in our north and east. Heat index values
appear to remain near 100F due to slightly lower Td values, so will
hold off on any highlights.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Hot temperatures are anticipated during the longterm period, with
high pressure impacting the region into the weekend. Midweek appears
to be mainly dry while precipitation chances persist throughout the
extended.

Tuesday night through Thursday night: High pressure remains centered
over the CONUS and ridging dominates the pattern through midweek.
Could see isolated thunderstorms in the northwestern portion of the
area each afternoon/evening Tuesday and Wednesday as monsoonal
moisture wraps around the western side of the ridge. The high
pressure elongates over the southern half of the country on
Thursday. Thunderstorm chances return to the region in the evening
as the ridge begins to flatten.

Friday through Monday: At the end of the work week, a shortwave
pushes from the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Plains. This
disturbance sends a cold front south Friday night into Saturday,
bringing increased thunderstorm chances on Saturday and slightly
cooler temperatures for the weekend/early next week. The ridge
retreats to the west on Sunday and Monday, and a more active pattern
develops over the High Plains with continued precipitation chances
as disturbances move through the flow.

Heat: Hot temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Thursday
before a cooling trend in the extended. Highs top out in the upper
90s along and west of the Colorado border while temperatures in
the 100-104 range are forecast to the east. With heat index values
near 105 along and east of Highway 25, am thinking a heat advisory
may be needed for at least Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures look to trend downward from Friday onward with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s by Sunday. Lows will be in the 60s to mid
70s in the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 513 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Scattered thunderstorms in northeast Colorado will struggle to
make much eastward progress tonight with storm motions taking them
northeast into Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. As a
result...will not mention thunderstorms at either KMCK or KGLD.
Otherwise...expecting VFR conditions to prevail with southeast
winds diminishing after sunset tonight but increasing again
Tuesday morning from the southwest.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191645-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1038 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 /1138 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
COLORADO STATE LINE AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF A CHEYENNE WELLS TO MCCOOK
NEBRASKA LINE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 100S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 105
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 3PM MDT (4 PM CDT)
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
849 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

COZ090-091-190500-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON
849 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

THROUGH 930 MDT...STRONG WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF YUMA COUNTY AND NORTHERN KIT CARSON COUNTY. THESE
WINDS ARE BEING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. THE AREA AFFECTED WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM
HEARTSTRONG TO VERNON DOWN TO INTERSTATE 70.