Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Goodland, KS

929 
WWUS53 KGLD 180124
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
724 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

COC017-180145-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0361.000000T0000Z-160718T0145Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
724 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 724 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF
KIT CARSON...OR 38 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 10314 3873 10291 3863 10296 3863 10307
      3864 10315 3871 10315 3871 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 199DEG 18KT 3873 10309 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

BULLER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Weak cold front is just about through the forecast area at midday
and will continue moving slowly south. North-northeast winds
behind front will keep a flow of slightly cooler but continued
moist air across the region. By mid-afternoon, thunderstorms will
begin developing along the front range in Colorado as heating and
upslope flow continue. Mean winds for storm movement are only
around 15 kts so it will take until this evening for any storms
to move into western KS/NE if they survive the journey.

Later tonight the frontal system currently settling south of the
area will begin to work its way back north. As it does there is
some potential for thunderstorms to develop along the front at the
leading edge of the strongly veered low level jet. Will mention a
slight chance for thunder overnight. If enough low level lift can
develop to push parcels up to around 650 mb, CINH will be overcome
and parcels will be able to tap into the existing elevated CAPE.

Monday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over
the NW portion of the CWA along the front and ahead of a short
wave trough rotating around the western periphery of the upper
high. These thunderstorms will mainly impact the NW 1/3 to half of
the forecast area later tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Monday Night: Increasing forcing associated with shortwave trough
rotating around NW periphery of mid level ridge will interact with
frontal zone and good moisture advection in our northwest. This
should result in increasing thunderstorm chances. Main CAPE axis may
remain just to our north, but there should be enough instability in
the evening to support severe thunderstorms will a few more
organized cells or clusters in region of better shear (again
possibly just to our north). This will be highly dependent on how
far warm front is by Monday afternoon. High resolution guidance
is favoring a complex developing in east-northeast Colorado
tracking across the northern part of our CWA. PoPs were adjusted
to account for latest model trends with high chance in our far
northwest.

Tuesday-Wednesday night: Amplified 600 dm ridge will be dominant
feature during these periods with very hot temperatures and
predominantly dry conditions. With monsoonal flow in the Rockies it
is possible for mean flow to carry isolated thunderstorm activity
into our far west/northwest during the afternoon and evening
periods. Other local development (if CAP were to weaken) would also
be limited to region near lee trough in our Colorado counties during
similar time frames (afternoon/evening).

Thursday-Sunday: Ridge begins to flatted out as a series of
shortwave troughs move through the mean flow along the US/Canada
border, with strongest trough (and associated cold front) Friday-
Saturday. Forcing begins to increase during these periods and height
falls should allow for both slightly cooler temperatures and
increasing thunderstorm chances. Timing and coverage are still in
question during these periods due to inconsistencies in guidance, so
PoPs were limited to slight chance category for now. Unfortunately,
despite a weak cold front moving over or near the region we will
remain above normal with the "coolest" days on Saturday and Sunday
(mid 90s).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 511 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Isolated thunderstorms in eastern Colorado have at least a chance
of making it all the way into northwest Kansas this evening.
However, given the limited coverage and loss of surface heating
after sunset chances of directly impacting either terminal appears
slim so will not mention in the TAFs. The other concern will be
the development of low clouds/fog overnight in the post frontal
upslope regime which is now entrenched across the area. Best
chance for flight category restrictions will be at KMCK around
sunrise...but KGLD may also see restrictions. After the low clouds
and fog burn off Monday morning, VFR conditions will return and
continue through the remainder of the day.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-190000-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
600 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 /700 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70. VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT
TIMES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH
OF A CHEYENNE WELLS TO COLBY AND NORTON LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.