Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Through the rest of the work week the upper level flow will remain
nearly zonal, allowing numerous short wave troughs to move across
the area during this timeframe.  The limiting factor in this setup
that has plentiful lift available will be the amount of moisture and
instability to work with.  Based on these limiting factors went a
bit on the low side for rainfall chances during this period.

This morning the storm activity from last night will gradually move
east of the Tri-State Area.  The next chance for storms will be in
the afternoon as a weaker upper level short wave trough moves across
the eastern 1/3 of the area.

This evening any storm activity will move east of the area by
midnight.  The next round of storms will develop during the
overnight hours along a cold front that will be moving south into
the Tri-State Area.  A band of elevated CAPE will develop along the
front over the northern part of the area.  Lift will increase along
the front as an upper level short wave trough deepens over it.  Am
expecting storm activity to increase during the last part of the
overnight hours into the Thursday morning.  Storms will be moving 15-
20 MPH and may end up training along the front which may lead to a
flash flood threat.

Thursday morning the front will continue to move south across the
area, with storm activity accompanying the front southward.  During
the afternoon another short wave trough will deepen over East
Central Colorado.  This trough seems to merge with a stronger trough
moving down from the northwest later in the evening, so am thinking
chances for rainfall will linger over the west during the evening
with the first short wave trough then shift to the northern part of
the area overnight as the stronger short wave trough moves through.
Storm activity with this short wave trough will be southeast of the
area by Friday morning.

Friday morning the Tri-State Area may get a glancing blow of storm
activity over the northwest half of the area as a weak upper level
short wave trough moves through.  Am not too confident in this
happening based on the latest model data. During the afternoon an
upper level short wave trough will develop west of the Tri-State
Area and move southeast into the area. The west half looks to have
the best chance for rainfall with this short wave trough, however
ahead of the trough there will be some weak lift so have chances for
rainfall across the entire area, with chances declining to the east.

Friday evening either the short wave trough from the afternoon will
deepen as it moves across the area or another stronger trough will
move through the area.  Either way chances for rainfall are more
promising during the evening as the short wave trough moves through.
Chances for rain will end from northwest to southeast as the trough
departs the area.

Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with any storms that
develop during this period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jul 13 2016

The majority of the extended period will be dry except for Saturday.
On Saturday a ridge begins to move west to east over the region. As
the day progresses a 700 mb shortwave trough look to pass over the
region enhancing storm potential in the afternoon and evening. CAPEs
range from 1000-2000 J/kg (primarily along and north of Interstate
70) and bulk shear is around 50 kts. These all create a favorable
environment for storms. Sunday through Tuesday temperatures are
expected to steadily increase into the upper 90s to low 100s as the
ridge amplifies over the CWA. Sunday could possibly see PoPs in the
Northeastern Colorado portion of the CWA but chances are slim.
Monday and Tuesday will be dry and hot across the Tri-State region.
The GFS and European show potential for moisture to push north from
Arizona and the Gulf of Mexico the beginning of next week but the
likelihood of that occurring is low due to the strong ridge and dry
conditions over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016

KGLD...mvfr/ifr conditions possible from taf issuance through
about 09z-10z with winds from the east-southeast/southeast under
10kts. Short range models insisting that convection currently a
row of counties north of the terminal will move east-southeast or
southeast into axis of elevated instability and possibly producing
near severe/severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds
and locally heavy rainfall to the terminal. They also suggest that
stratus will develop immediately behind the convection for a few
hours producing scattered to broken low cloudiness. After 10z
winds start to veer to the west, north, northeast and east through
the rest of the taf period with some gusts near 20kts possible.
Strato cumulus/cumulus clouds possible during the morning hours
with perhaps some mid clouds during the afternoon and evening.

KMCK...vfr conditions expected through the period. May have
thunderstorms in the vicinity or on top of the terminal in the
08z-10z timeframe with winds light from the southeast. After 10z
winds are similar to KGLD with west then northwest, north,
northeast and east through the rest of the taf period. A few gusts
near 20kts possible. Fair weather cumulus clouds possible during
the daylight and early evening hours.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
830 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
830 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 /930 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THESE PERIODS. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

COZ090-KSZ001-NEZ079-130515-
YUMA COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY NE-
1056 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1056 PM MDT/1156 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WRAY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YUMA...WRAY...ECKLEY...HAIGLER...VERNON...HEARTSTRONG AND LAIRD.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 228 AND 247.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4013 10192 3987 10190 3985 10280 4013 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 266DEG 46KT 3997 10236

007

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 AM     TSTM WND GST     GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
07/13/2016  M59 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

            STILL GUSTING TO 59 MPH.

&&

JLUNDQUIST

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
204 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 AM     TSTM WND GST     GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
07/13/2016  M66 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

&&

CLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 E COLBY               39.39N 101.01W
07/13/2016  M61 MPH          THOMAS             KS   MESONET

&&

CLT